The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Model descriptions for Trade and Strategic Resources are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
Trade and Strategic Resources reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the trade, resources and supply chains field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as network science and contagion as well as optimization and operations research. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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Layers 3
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-region input-output models | OECD inter-country tables | Value chains and indirect exposure | Consistency with national accounts |
| Trade network models | Network analysis of Comtrade data | Concentration and contagion of shocks | Past disruptions |
| Maritime disruption models | Port and shipping network models | Rerouting time and cost | Past closures |
| Material flow analysis | Open MFA frameworks | Stocks and flows of materials | Mass balance checks |
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Model card | A short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits. |
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Surrogate model | A fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.