Skip to content

GCRI · Global challenges

Geopolitical and geoeconomic risk

Conflict, sanctions, export restrictions, contested shipping routes and shifting alliances move through economies by concrete channels: prices, supply, finance, technology access and the movement of people. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) studies these channels as mechanisms. It takes no partisan position and advocates for no government. The goal: institutions see their exposure and prepare. Part of global challenges.

Make an enquiry Back to Global challenges
01Contents

Geopolitical and geoeconomic risk in seven parts.

In this dossier7 parts
  1. 01Transmission channelsFive channels carry geopolitical stress into economies
  2. 02Evidence on the channelsWhat the literature measures about geoeconomic fragmentation
  3. 03Methods and limitsScenario analysis for geopolitical shocks, and why it stays conditional
  4. 04GCRI’s partMechanisms and exposure, without positions
  5. 05NeutralityMechanisms, not positions
  6. 06How GCRI approaches itMethods for transmission analysis
  7. 07Across the programmeGovernance and finance counterparts
02Transmission channels

Five channels carry geopolitical stress into economies.

ChannelHow stress travelsTypical exposure
PricesEnergy, food and input prices respond to supply fears and restrictionsImport-dependent households, firms and budgets
SupplyExport controls, route closures and sanctions interrupt physical flowsCritical minerals, fertiliser, components, medicines
FinancePayment restrictions, capital flight and risk repricingTrade finance, sovereign borrowing, remittances
TechnologyRestricted access to chips, software, data and know-howDigital services, industry, research
PeopleDisplacement, labour mobility and travel restrictionsHost communities, sectors reliant on migrant labour
03Geography

Hazards and exposure worldwide.

Population density, flood water and active fires across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
Provider
NASA LANCE FIRMS
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026

04Evidence on the channels

What the literature measures about geoeconomic fragmentation.

The IMF Staff Discussion Note on geoeconomic fragmentation (January 2023) and the WTO World Trade Report 2023 both set out how restrictions on trade, technology, capital and migration change costs and resilience. Both stress that estimates depend heavily on how far fragmentation goes and how economies adjust.

ChannelMeasureSource and status
Trade restrictionsNew restrictive measures per year by product; tariff rates in percent ad valoremWTO monitoring reports and tariff data; published with a lag
Shipping disruptionTransit volumes through straits and canals; route length and freight ratesUNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport; port and canal authority statistics
Commodity price transmissionChange in domestic prices after a world price shock, as an elasticityFAO and IMF price series; estimated, varies by policy and exchange rate
Financial channelCross-border capital flows and correspondent banking relationshipsIMF and BIS statistics; aggregates only
Organised violenceConflict events and fatalities by location and dateUppsala Conflict Data Program; reported, with coding rules published
05Twin and cascade simulator

Model geopolitical and geoeconomic risk as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Dam failure
  • Financial contagion
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
  • Currency crisis (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-H62 Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
  • NRS-H94 Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)

Observation

  • INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
  • Macroeconomic Dashboard

Example geography

  • Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
06Methods and limits

Scenario analysis for geopolitical shocks, and why it stays conditional.

  • Conditional scenarios. A study asks what happens if a route closes or a restriction is imposed; it does not estimate the probability that it will. Political events are not forecast.
  • General equilibrium trade models. They show how trade and output adjust across many countries, but assume adjustment that may take years and rarely capture stockpiles, informal trade or sudden policy reversals.
  • Exposure mapping. Import dependence and route exposure can be measured with published data; the response of other governments cannot, and studies show a range.
  • Source discipline. Claims about restrictions cite the measure itself or the monitoring body, never commentary, and keep reported facts apart from estimates.
07GCRI’s part

Mechanisms and exposure, without positions.

GCRI studies how geopolitical and trade shocks travel into water, energy, food, health, technology and finance, so that any institution can see its exposure. It takes no side in disputes, advises on no foreign policy and applies the sanctions and eligibility rules that bind it. Work sits in the geopolitical and geoeconomic risk chapter.

Scenario findings are designed for the Scenario and Stress-Test series and the Foresight Outlook series, always labelled as scenario evidence. Contributions that help: cases where a restriction reached a supply chain, with sources, and critiques of scenario assumptions.

08Neutrality

Mechanisms, not positions.

Non-partisan

No advocacy

GCRI does not take sides in disputes or recommend foreign-policy choices. It describes channels and exposure.

Sourced

Evidence with labels

Claims about restrictions or flows cite their sources and carry an evidence label, with published statistics and estimated data kept apart.

Scenarios

Plausible, not predicted

Stress scenarios explore how a disruption would propagate. They are not forecasts of political events.

09How GCRI approaches it

Methods for transmission analysis.

The work uses network science and contagion, scenario design and stress testing and game theory and mechanism design. Field work sits in the Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Risk chapter of the Trade and Strategic Resources platform.

Countries under the programme’s sanctions and eligibility policy have no desk or enquiry route, and GCRI’s work observes the sanctions that apply to it.

10Across the programme

Governance and finance counterparts.

The Global Risks Forum (GRF) examines institutional cooperation in its geoeconomic and trade governance chapter. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines financial transmission under geoeconomic and trade transmission. See also industry, resources and trade.

11Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

12Questions

Questions and answers.

Does GCRI comment on conflicts or elections?
No. GCRI explains how geopolitical and trade shocks travel through economic and social systems. It does not comment on the merits of disputes, conflicts or political contests.
Are geopolitical events predicted?
No. GCRI uses scenarios to explore consequences if a disruption occurs. It does not assign probabilities to political events or present scenarios as forecasts.
How are sanctions handled in GCRI’s own work?
GCRI applies the sanctions and eligibility rules that bind it. Restricted countries have no desk or call to action, and restricted-party controls apply.
Why include this in a risk and innovation institution?
Because geopolitical shocks now reach water, energy, food, health, technology and finance through the same dependencies GCRI studies, and institutions need to see that exposure to prepare.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRI

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Bring a method, a dataset or a question.

Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

Propose a method See all contact routes
Legal

Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.

Privacy choices