Skip to content

GCRI

Global challenges

A drought becomes a power shortage and a food price shock. A software failure halts ports and hospitals. An industrial transition creates jobs in one place and exposure in another. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) studies where risk, technology and development meet: what science can say, what it cannot yet say, and where its specialist network takes the work further.

Open Systemic and cascading risks Back to Home
01Register

Eleven pages under global challenges.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
  1. 01Systemic cascadingSystemic and cascading risks
  2. 02Water, energy,Water, energy, food, health and nature
  3. 03Climate hazardsClimate and hazards
  4. 04Disaster resilienceDisaster resilience
  5. 05Infrastructure dependenciesInfrastructure dependencies
  6. 06Digital cyberDigital and cyber dependencies
  7. 07Industry, resourcesIndustry, resources and trade
  8. 08Economic transformationEconomic transformation
02Why these challenges

Risk no longer stays inside one sector or one border.

The systems that sustain societies are coupled. Mandates, data and budgets remain divided by sector and by country, so the most consequential risks are often the ones least examined as a whole. Each challenge page starts from that coupling.

Risk

Shocks that travel

Hazards, failures and disruptions that cross water, energy, food, health, nature, infrastructure and finance. Start with systemic and cascading risks.

Innovation

Technology that changes exposure

Digital, frontier and industrial technologies that create capability and new dependence at once. See digital and cyber dependencies.

Development

Opportunity with its limits

Economic transformation, jobs and human development, and who bears the risk of change. See economic transformation.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure worldwide.

Flood water, population density and active fires across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
Provider
NASA LANCE FIRMS
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024

04Shared vocabulary

The terms every challenge page uses, and how each is measured.

The challenge pages follow the terminology the UN General Assembly adopted in 2017 on the recommendation of an intergovernmental expert working group, and the risk framing of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Using the same words for the same things is what lets a hydrologist, an engineer and a finance ministry analyst read one another’s evidence.

TermMeaning, after the body that sets itHow it is expressed
HazardA process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury, damage, disruption or environmental degradation (UNDRR)A hazard-specific intensity: flood depth in metres, wind speed in metres per second, peak ground acceleration as a fraction of gravity, a drought index without units
ExposurePeople, infrastructure, housing, production capacity and other tangible assets located in hazard-prone areas (UNDRR)Counts of people, replacement value in a stated currency and year, length of network in kilometres
VulnerabilityConditions set by physical, social, economic and environmental factors that raise susceptibility to harm (UNDRR)Damage ratio between zero and one from a vulnerability curve, or a composite of social indicators with its method stated
RiskPotential consequences, arising from the interaction of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and the response to it (IPCC AR6)Expected annual loss in currency per year; probability of exceeding a loss in a year; people affected per event
Systemic riskRisk that arises from the connections inside and between systems, so that a disruption in one part can spread and change the behaviour of the whole (UNDRR GAR 2019; IRGC 2018)No single unit: dependency maps, propagation results with their assumptions and the range of outcomes across scenarios

A unit is never left implied. Where a page names an indicator it gives the unit and the evidence label with it, and where no defensible measure exists the page says so. The labels themselves are set out under Nexus Standards and methods.

05Twin and cascade simulator

Model global challenges as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Dam failure
  • Financial contagion
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
  • Currency crisis (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-H62 Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
  • NRS-H94 Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)

Observation

  • INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
  • Macroeconomic Dashboard

Example geography

  • Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
06From page to report

How these pages connect to Reports, Nexus Standards and your contribution.

The challenge pages are the public explanation layer. The questions they raise are the ones the Global Systems Risk and Resilience series and the Scenario and Stress-Test series of Reports are designed to examine with reviewed evidence. The methods they cite are documented for the Methods and Technical series. No report has been released yet; a page describes the programme, never a result.

The Nexus Standards are proposed rules for identifying, citing and verifying what the programme publishes. Every indicator series gets a record identifier, every dataset a metadata profile, every model a model card. A challenge page that cites an indicator is written so that the indicator can later carry that identifier.

  • Point out an error or a missing mechanism on any challenge page through corrections; no membership is needed.
  • Offer a documented case of a shock that crossed systems, with a source for every step, through risk transmission examples.
  • Propose a method for a challenge through the STEM Commons, where each method has one canonical page.
07How each page works

Every challenge page answers the same five questions.

  1. 01

    What the challenge is

    A plain description of the system, the hazard or the transition, without jargon and without alarm.

  2. 02

    How it connects

    The dependencies that carry stress into other systems, and the common points of failure.

  3. 03

    What the evidence says

    Which parts are observed, which are modelled or estimated, and which remain unknown. Missing data is shown as missing, never as zero.

  4. 04

    Where science stops

    The limits of prediction and measurement, stated next to the claim they limit.

  5. 05

    Where to go next

    The field gateway, specialist platform, method page or programme that takes the question further, such as the STEM Commons for methods.

08Three faces of a challenge

Science here, governance and finance at the other pillars.

GCRI examines a challenge as science and evidence. The Global Risks Forum (GRF) examines how it is governed, on its risk governance pages. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines what the evidence means for financial decisions, on its financial-system risk pages. Each keeps its own voice and publisher. The pages link; they do not copy.

GCRI prepares evidence. It does not regulate, certify, license or approve, and decisions remain with the competent government, operator or institution.

09Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

10Pages

Pages in Global challenges.

Page

Systemic and cascading risks

Page

Water, energy, food, health and nature

Page

Climate and hazards

Page

Disaster resilience

Page

Infrastructure dependencies

Page

Digital and cyber dependencies

Page

Industry, resources and trade

Page

Economic transformation

Page

Society and human development

Page

Geopolitical and geoeconomic risk

Page

Risk transmission examples

11Questions

Questions and answers.

Who are these pages written for?
For a minister’s adviser, an operator, a researcher and an interested member of the public at once. Each page leads with a short explanation and puts the technical depth and the evidence limits below it.
Do the challenge pages rank countries or risks?
No. They explain mechanisms and evidence. GCRI publishes no league tables, and any indicator uses NXS-GRX-native names and units with its source and uncertainty, never an invented value.
Can I use these pages to make a decision?
They are a starting point for understanding, not advice for a specific decision. Country or sector questions can be raised with the Consortium Secretariat, and an enquiry receives a reference that names the next step.
How do I report an error on a challenge page?
Write to the integrity concern form naming the page, the passage and your evidence. An accepted correction is published as a new recorded version, and no membership is needed.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRI

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Bring a method, a dataset or a question.

Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

Propose a method See all contact routes
Legal

Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.

Privacy choices