GCRI · Innovation and technological change
Frontier technology guide
The frontier technologies The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) follows: artificial intelligence, quantum, biotechnology, space and Earth observation, robotics and advanced computing. For each: what it does, where it stands, what it depends on and where it changes risk. Each links to its GCRI specialist platform, and to the methods behind the analysis. Part of innovation and technological change.
01Workspace
The workspace for frontier technology guide.
GCRI · GCRI · Innovation pipelineIllustrative
Innovation pipeline
GCRI · Stage gates · Example interface, not a record
Gate review in 4 dGCRI · GCRI
By readiness level
TRL 2 to 301
Report edition planningconcept tested
TRL 4 to 502
Country programme formationlab validation
Annual mission designlab validation
TRL 6 to 701
National Model buildpilot with owner
Adoption review01
Evidence label auditowner decides
Readiness criteria
pilot vs gate
Pilot issues
- I-1Data licence for pilot siteTo check7 d
- I-2Observer protocol signedDone5 d
GCRI · Innovation pipeline. Innovation pipeline: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
02The technologies
Six frontier fields, each with a specialist platform.
| Technology | Where it changes risk | Platform |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems | Model failure, misuse, concentration of compute, autonomy in safety-critical settings | AI and Autonomous Systems |
| Quantum technologies | Future pressure on current cryptography, new sensing and timing capability | Quantum Technologies |
| Biotechnology | Faster diagnostics and vaccines, dual-use and biosafety concerns | Biotechnology and Biosecurity |
| Space and Earth observation | Hazard monitoring, dependence on satellite timing and imagery | Space and Earth Observation |
| Robotics and advanced industry | Automated production and inspection, worker safety, skills | Advanced Industry and Robotics |
| Data and compute | Energy and water demand, concentration of capacity, data sovereignty | Data and Compute |
They make no claims of activity until their communities, editors and services are in place.
03Where each stands
Frontier technologies in 2026: state, dependencies and the risk questions they raise.
| Technology | State, in plain terms | Depends on | Risk question |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence | General-purpose models in wide use; capabilities uneven and hard to evaluate (International AI Safety Report, 2025) | Compute, data, energy, specialised chips | Reliability in high-stakes use; misuse; concentration of supply |
| Quantum technologies | Sensing and communication advancing; fault-tolerant computing not yet demonstrated at useful scale | Cryogenics, precision manufacturing, specialised materials | When current public-key cryptography becomes breakable, and how long migration takes |
| Biotechnology | Gene editing and synthesis cheaper and more widely available | Laboratories, sequence data, reagents | Biosafety and biosecurity; equitable access to benefits |
| Space and Earth observation | More satellites and more open data than ever; congestion in low Earth orbit | Launch, ground segments, spectrum | Debris and collision risk; dependence on satellite timing |
| Robotics and automation | Industrial use mature; mobile and humanoid systems early | Sensors, actuators, control software | Safety near people; labour effects |
| Advanced computing and data centres | Rapid growth in AI-related demand | Electricity, cooling water, grid connections | Energy and water demand, analysed in the IEA’s Energy and AI report of 2025 |
04GCRI’s part
Specialist platforms for each field, and where findings go.
Each technology has a GCRI platform: AI and Autonomous Systems, Quantum, Biotechnology and Biosecurity, Space and Earth Observation, Advanced Industry and Robotics and Data and Compute. Findings are designed for the Exponential Technology series. Specialists can contribute status updates with sources when a field moves, which happens faster than any guide; a dated correction is always welcome.
05How to read the guide
Four questions for every technology.
- 01
What does it do?
A plain description of the capability, without marketing language.
- 02
How mature is it?
Evidence on current performance and readiness, with the source of each claim.
- 03
What does it depend on?
Inputs such as energy, materials, data, skills and a small number of suppliers.
- 04
How does it change risk?
New capability for resilience, new exposures and the institutions that must respond.
06Methods and counterparts
The science behind the guide.
The guide draws on method pages such as quantum computing, sensing and communication, biotechnology platforms and space systems and satellite services. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines financial implications, for example under quantum and cryptographic transition. See also converging technologies and responsible technology.
07Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- International AI Safety Report (chaired by Yoshua Bengio, January 2025)
- NIST FIPS 203, 204 and 205, post-quantum cryptography standards (NIST, 2024)
- International Year of Quantum Science and Technology 2025 (UN General Assembly resolution 78/287)
- WHO Global guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences (WHO, 2022)
- Biological Weapons Convention (UN Office for Disarmament Affairs)
- Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities (UN COPUOS, 2019)
- Energy and AI, special report (International Energy Agency, 2025)
08Questions
Questions and answers.
Is the guide a ranking of technologies?
No. It explains each technology and its effect on risk. GCRI does not rank technologies, products or countries.
How current is the guide?
Each entry shows the date of its last review and links to the evidence behind it. Entries are updated through the same review and correction process as other GCRI publications.
Can I contribute expertise on a technology?
Yes. Write to the expert application form with your field and experience. Experts contribute through bounded, supervised assignments in the National Working Groups.
Why include data and compute as a frontier field?
Because computing capacity now underpins AI, science and public services, and its concentration, energy demand and security are risk questions in their own right.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
GCRI
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.