GCRI · Innovation and technological change
Science for economic and social development
Science serves development when it becomes productive capacity: firms using new methods, health systems adopting better diagnostics, public services reaching more people, jobs rewarding new skills. The path from research to capacity is long and often breaks. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) studies where it breaks and what a country needs to absorb technology on its own terms. Part of innovation and technological change.
01Sequence
The order things happen in.
- 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
- 02Evidence checkevery value traced
- 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
- 04Editionpublished with its limits
- 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
02The path
From research to capacity, step by step.
- 01
Research and evidence
Questions that matter to a country, studied with methods that can be checked.
- 02
Adaptation and testing
Technologies adapted to local conditions and tested in controlled settings, for example through Labs test environments.
- 03
Adoption
Institutions and firms that take a tested option into practice, with the skills and finance it requires.
- 04
Capability that lasts
Trained teams, maintained infrastructure and knowledge that stays when a project ends.
03Geography
People and exposure worldwide.
Population density and night lights across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 2
People and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
People and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (9 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
04Measurement
How research and innovation are measured, and what the measures miss.
| Measure | Manual and body | What it misses |
|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic expenditure on research and development, relative to GDP | Frascati Manual (OECD, 2015) | Informal and frugal innovation; quality of spending |
| Innovation in firms: product and business process innovation | Oslo Manual (OECD and Eurostat, 2018) | Innovation in the public sector and informal economy |
| Researchers per million inhabitants | UNESCO Institute for Statistics | Where researchers work and whether they stay |
| High-technology share of exports | Trade statistics | Assembly with little local value added |
Cohen and Levinthal’s concept of absorptive capacity (1990) explains why one technology transfers well to one firm or country and fails in another. The ability to recognise, assimilate and apply new knowledge depends on what is already known. The UNESCO Science Report of 2021 and UNCTAD’s Technology and Innovation Report 2025 document how unevenly that capacity is distributed.
05GCRI’s part
Capability that stays in the country.
GCRI’s contribution is bounded technical assistance, training and research on adoption, designed so that skills and tools remain with national institutions. It funds no projects and decides no investments. Evaluations of adoption are designed for the Evidence Brief series. Universities and national research councils can contribute adoption case studies, including the ones that failed.
06Where it matters
Four outcomes the work aims at.
Production
Productive capacity
Firms and sectors that can use new technology and compete.
Health
Health systems
Diagnostics, data and services that reach more people reliably.
Services
Public services and jobs
Digital public services and skills that turn technology into work.
07Where it breaks
Common gaps between science and development.
- Research agendas set far from the countries that need the results
- Pilots that end without a recipient institution to continue them
- Technology adopted without the skills, maintenance or energy to run it
- Evaluation that measures outputs rather than lasting capability
08How GCRI contributes
Technical assistance and country capability.
GCRI’s contribution is bounded technical assistance under a defined scope, learning through learning and courses, and research linked to economic transformation. Every handoff names a competent recipient. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines development finance readiness under development readiness.
Technical assistance is capacity-building, not procurement, financing or execution authority.
09Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- OECD Frascati Manual 2015 (OECD, 2015)
- OECD and Eurostat, Oslo Manual 2018, fourth edition (OECD, 2018)
- UNESCO Science Report: the race against time for smarter development (UNESCO, 2021)
- UNCTAD Technology and Innovation Report 2025 (UNCTAD, 2025)
- Cohen and Levinthal, Absorptive capacity: a new perspective on learning and innovation, Administrative Science Quarterly 35 (1990)
10Questions
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI fund development projects?
No. GCRI provides evidence, methods and bounded technical assistance. It does not fund, lend or procure.
Who owns the capability built in a country?
National programmes keep their own agenda, data and decision rights. Contributions follow a rights schedule, and capability is designed to stay with national institutions.
How is success measured?
By lasting capability and outcomes, evaluated with stated methods. Null or negative results are published alongside positive ones.
Can a university in a developing country lead research?
Yes. Research collaboration is open to universities and institutes everywhere, subject to sanctions rules, with authorship and rights agreed at the start.
How does this relate to risk?
Development and risk are linked. Capability built without regard to hazards, dependencies or maintenance can create new exposure, while resilient capacity helps a country absorb shocks and keep its gains.
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