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Decision analysis under uncertainty

Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. Systemic Risk Management stewards this page for the Nexus Consortium.

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01Contents

Decision analysis under uncertainty in six parts.

In this dossier6 parts
  1. 01The methodWhat decision analysis under uncertainty covers
  2. 02Reference practiceDecision analysis is codified in risk and evaluation practice
  3. 03In systemic risk workChoosing when probabilities are contested
  4. 04Applied inPlatforms that apply this method
  5. 05StewardshipWho maintains this page
  6. 06SourcesWhere this page’s references lead
02The method

What decision analysis under uncertainty covers.

  1. 01

    Core methods

    decision trees; multi-criteria decision analysis; value of information analysis; robust decision making; expected utility analysis; adaptive pathways planning.

  2. 02

    Data and instruments

    expert elicitation; model outputs; stakeholder preference surveys; cost and benefit estimates; scenario sets.

  3. 03

    Validation

    Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.

  4. 04

    Limits

    Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.

  5. 05

    Use in risk decisions

    Decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open.

03Reference practice

Decision analysis is codified in risk and evaluation practice.

ReferenceWhat it sets
ISO 31000 risk treatmentSelecting treatment options
Robust decision-making and dynamic adaptive pathwaysDecisions under deep uncertainty
Cost-benefit and multi-criteria analysis guidanceAppraisal of options
04Process

How the process runs.

Process

Decision analysis under uncertainty: Coastal flood adaptation pathways

Hazard and impact steps follow coastal flood practice; pathway steps follow dynamic adaptive policy pathways (Haasnoot and others, 2013), with signposts and tipping points.

  1. 01 Hazard

    1. 01Sea level scenariosDatasetSea level scenarios set the range of future mean sea level. The scenario set and horizon come from the source the page names.
    2. 02Surge and tide recordsDatasetRecords of storm surge and tide supply the short-term water level variation.
    3. 03Extreme water levelsModelSea level, surge and tide are combined into extreme water levels by return period, using a joint probability approach.

  2. 02 Impact

    1. 04Flood modelModelA flood model maps overtopping and inundation for each scenario. The place is set by the page.
    2. 05ExposureDatasetExposure lists the people, assets and ports in the flooded area.
    3. 06DamageModelDepth-damage functions turn flood depth into expected damage, for example expected annual damage.

  3. 03 Pathways

    1. 07Adaptation tipping pointsGateAn adaptation tipping point is the condition under which a measure stops meeting its objectives as conditions change.
    2. 08Adaptation pathwaysStepPathways sequence measures and the signposts that show when to switch. Signposts are monitored to see whether adaptation is needed.
    3. 09Decision and review datesDecision · Competent authorityThe responsible body chooses a pathway and sets review dates. The body is set by the page.

Neutral outline of a published external standard or method, from its issuing body. Not a record of operation. Nexus does not perform, certify or approve any step shown. A gate or decision belongs to the party the source names. The DAPP paper was identified from its citation record and abstract summary; its full text was not read.

05In systemic risk work

Choosing when probabilities are contested.

Under deep uncertainty, decision analysis seeks options that perform acceptably across many futures and adaptive pathways that can change course as information arrives. It supports decision-makers; it does not replace their judgement on values.

  • Make value judgements explicit.
  • Identify signposts that trigger pathway changes.
  • Compare options across scenarios.
  • Applications on Risk Management and Disaster Resilience and Recovery.
06Applied in

Platforms that apply this method.

07Stewardship

Who maintains this page.

Systemic Risk Management stewards decision analysis under uncertainty: it keeps this description current and reviews how the method is applied across the platforms.

08Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Why does one institution host every method page?
GCRI hosts the STEM Commons so that each method has one canonical description. Platforms link to it rather than repeat it, which keeps definitions consistent.
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Write to the integrity concern form with the passage and the reason.
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