Cost-benefit of risk reduction
Avoided losses from a prevention measure are estimated across hazard scenarios and compared with costs, with discounting, distribution of benefits and uncertainty reported beside the result.
GCRI · Disaster Resilience and Recovery
Decision analysis for disaster risk
Decision analysis under uncertainty is how this platform frames the hard choices of disaster risk management: where to invest in prevention, when to act on a forecast, and how to sequence recovery. It makes options, objectives and uncertainties explicit so that authorities can examine and defend their choices.
01Register
Decision analysis for disaster risk on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodDecision analysis under uncertainty
- StewardSystemic Risk Management
- Applied inDisaster Resilience and Recovery
- Data4 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What decision analysis under uncertainty does here.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In disaster and crisis and climate and hazards, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Acting on forecasts
The cost of acting when no hazard follows is weighed against losses avoided by acting in time, to choose trigger thresholds for anticipatory action.
Recovery prioritisation
Recovery projects are compared against criteria such as restored services, equity, risk reduction and cost, with weights agreed with the recovery authority.
03Monitor
Uncertainty analysis.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Uncertainty analysis
Disaster resilience · Decision analysis for disaster · Run R-5493
Sensitivity rankedGCRI · Disaster Resilience and Recovery
Total-order sensitivity
Output distribution
Inputs
| Deaths per 100,000 (Sendai A) | Lognormal | rate, stated | expert elicitation |
| Affected people (Sendai B) | Beta | people, stated | expert elicitation |
| Direct economic loss (Sendai C) | Beta | local units, stated | expert elicitation |
| Damage to critical infrastructure (Sendai D) | Beta | facilities, stated | expert elicitation |
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Disaster loss databases | Loss inputs | REPORTED |
| Hazard models | Event probabilities | MODELLED |
| Programme cost records | Option costs | OBSERVED |
| Stakeholder-elicited weights | Objectives | DECLARED |
05Methods and evidence
How decision analysis for disaster risk is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Uncertainty bands
How far the outlook for decision analysis for disaster risk could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.
- Central estimate
- median of the ensemble
- Ranges
- likely and very likely, in IPCC calibrated language
- Ensemble
- members, scenarios and initial conditions stated
- Read with
- the sensitivity of the result to each input
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Validation
How results are checked.
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Sensitivity to discount rate | Results are recomputed across a range of discount rates and reported |
| Distributional analysis | Who gains and who bears costs is shown alongside totals |
| Assumption register | Every assumption is listed and reviewed with the commissioning authority |
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
07Process
How the process runs.
Process
Decision analysis for disaster risk: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 Drivers
- 01HazardDataset · Humanitarian coordinationThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
- 02ExposureDataset · Humanitarian coordinationThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
- 03SensitivityDataset · Humanitarian coordinationThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
- 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Humanitarian coordinationThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
02 Assessment
- 05Risk from responsesComponent · Humanitarian coordinationRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
- 06VulnerabilityComponent · Humanitarian coordinationThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
- 07RiskModel · Disaster Resilience and RecoveryRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 Response
- 08Risk management and responseStep · Humanitarian coordinationRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
- 09Residual riskRecord · Humanitarian coordinationThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
04 Decision
- 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Humanitarian coordinationThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.
09Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Systemic Risk Management stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
10Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
11Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of decision analysis under uncertainty in this field?
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
How are results checked?
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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GCRIDisaster Resilience and RecoveryCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceEvidence Brief
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Disaster Resilience and Recovery
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