GCRI · Mathematics, statistics and data
Forecasting and time-series analysis
Forecasting and time-series analysis predict future values of variables from past observations and explanatory information. They support early warning and planning across hazards, markets and health. Climate and Hazards stewards this page for the Nexus Consortium.
01Contents
Forecasting and time-series analysis in six parts.
In this dossier6 parts
- 01The methodWhat forecasting and time-series analysis covers
- 02Reference practiceForecasting practice is verified against outcomes
- 03In systemic risk workFrom hazard forecast to action
- 04Applied inPlatforms that apply this method
- 05StewardshipWho maintains this page
- 06SourcesWhere this page’s references lead
02The method
What forecasting and time-series analysis covers.
- 01
Core methods
autoregressive models; state space models; ensemble forecasting; machine learning forecasting; nowcasting; forecast combination.
- 02
Data and instruments
historical time series; real-time monitoring feeds; numerical model outputs; economic indicators; surveys of expectations.
- 03
Validation
Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.
- 04
Limits
Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.
- 05
Use in risk decisions
Forecasts trigger early action and anticipatory finance before shocks materialise. Probabilistic forecasts allow decisions to account for uncertainty across connected systems.
03Reference practice
Forecasting practice is verified against outcomes.
| Reference | What it sets |
|---|---|
| WMO forecast verification guidance | Skill scores and verification |
| Impact-based forecasting (WMO) | Forecasts of consequences, not only hazards |
| Early Warnings for All | Forecasting as a warning pillar |
04Process
How the process runs.
Process
Forecasting and time-series analysis: Flood forecasting and warning chain
The WMO flood forecasting manual and Early Warnings for All describe the chain from forecast to action, across EW4All’s four pillars.
01 Forecast
- 01Rainfall forecastSourceNumerical weather prediction and nowcasts supply rainfall input. Ensembles can apply to weather prediction and hydrological models.
- 02Hydrological modelModel · National DeskA hydrological model turns rainfall into runoff and discharge. The manual covers model choice, parameters and calibration.
- 03Hydraulic modelModelA hydraulic model routes the discharge to water levels along the river and floodplain. The place is set by the page.
- 04Inundation mapsDatasetInundation forecasting combines a level-and-flow model with a digital flood plain surface, the manual’s most sophisticated public service.
02 Warning
- 05ThresholdsGateForecasts are compared with thresholds agreed in advance, as in a threshold-based alert service. Impact-based guidance was not read.
- 06Warning decisionDecision · National DeskThe agency responsible for forecasts and warnings decides on the warning. It should understand the roles of the other agencies concerned.
- 07Warning disseminationStepWarnings are communicated through the channels people use. This is EW4All pillar 3, warning dissemination and communication.
03 Response
- 08Early actionStepPeople and institutions act on the warning. This is EW4All pillar 4, preparedness and response capabilities.
- 09Forecast verificationStepForecasts are verified using hits, misses and false alarms. The manual lists probability of detection, false alarm rate and threat score.
Neutral outline of a published external standard or method, from its issuing body. Not a record of operation. Nexus does not perform, certify or approve any step shown. A gate or decision belongs to the party the source names.
05In systemic risk work
From hazard forecast to action.
Forecasts become useful for risk when tied to thresholds that trigger action. Impact-based forecasting and forecast-based financing link probabilistic forecasts to pre-agreed actions. Verification tells whether the forecasts are reliable enough for that use.
- Verify forecasts with proper scoring rules.
- Calibrate thresholds to false-alarm tolerance.
- Communicate probabilities clearly.
- Applications on Climate and Hazards and Disaster Resilience and Recovery.
07Stewardship
Who maintains this page.
Climate and Hazards stewards forecasting and time-series analysis: it keeps this description current and reviews how the method is applied across the platforms.
08Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
09Questions
Questions and answers.
Why does one institution host every method page?
GCRI hosts the STEM Commons so that each method has one canonical description. Platforms link to it rather than repeat it, which keeps definitions consistent.
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Write to the integrity concern form with the passage and the reason.
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