GCRI · Biodiversity Nexus
Ecosystem services
Ecosystem services are the contributions nature makes to people: pollination of crops, regulation of floods and water quality, fisheries, timber, carbon storage and cultural value. Economies depend on them in ways that rarely appear on balance sheets until they fail. This page sets out how dependencies on nature are mapped, how service supply is modelled and accounted, and how the loss of a service propagates to livelihoods, firms and financial institutions.
Ecosystem services on the record.
Ecosystem services: how the risk develops.
Pollination, flood buffering and livelihood dependencies. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Supply depends on condition
A service exists only where an ecosystem supplies it and people benefit from it. Pollination needs pollinator habitat near crops; flood buffering needs floodplains upstream of settlements. Mapping supply, flow and demand separately avoids counting services nobody receives.
Dependencies are hidden
Firms depend on water, pollination, soil fertility and climate regulation through their suppliers, often several tiers removed. Sector tools map which activities depend on which services, but location decides how material a dependency is.
Loss travels through supply chains
Fewer pollinators lower yields of dependent crops; degraded catchments raise water treatment costs; lost mangroves raise storm losses. The shock moves through prices, insurance claims and loan performance to sectors far from the site.
Risk reaches finance
Nature-related risk reaches financial institutions as physical risk from service loss, transition risk from regulation and market shifts, and systemic risk when losses correlate. Supervisors are examining how these risks enter credit, market and insurance exposures.
Habitat condition in the Amazon Basin.
Land cover, vegetation and plant growth over the Amazon Basin, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Habitat condition, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- MODIS Terra EVI (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite index; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite vegetation index for the 8 days to the date shown, a habitat condition indicator; not a measure of species or biodiversity.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest 8-day period GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Aqua GPP (MYD17) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite-driven model; latest 8-day period GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-30
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Model estimate of carbon taken up by plants over the 8-day period shown; an indicator of growth, not harvest or production.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Habitat condition, framed on the Amazon Basin.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Optional layers (6 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Gross primary production, 8-day total: MODIS Aqua GPP (MYD17), NASA LP DAAC · 30 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
Ecosystem services are the couplings, named and measured.
| Service | Domain it supports | How it is measured |
|---|---|---|
| Water regulation and purification | Water: catchment hydrology | Avoided treatment cost; baseflow contribution |
| Pollination and pest control | Food: agricultural production | Yield dependence on pollinators |
| Climate regulation | All domains | Carbon stocks in tonnes per hectare |
| Disease regulation | Health: One Health | Change in transmission with habitat change |
| Coastal protection | Infrastructure and settlements | Wave attenuation by reefs and mangroves |
IPBES’s framing of nature’s contributions to people (Díaz and others, 2018) and its Values Assessment (2022) caution that monetary valuation captures only some values; the UN SEEA Ecosystem Accounting records services in physical and, where appropriate, monetary terms. The TNFD recommendations (2023) ask companies to disclose dependencies on these services.
LEAP workspace.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
LEAP workspace
Ecosystem services · Landscape A · Assessment cycle 3
LEAP approach
- Locateinterface with nature
- Evaluatedependencies · impacts
- Assessrisks · opportunities
- Preparerespond · report
Dependencies and impacts
materiality, 0 low to 100 high
Scores are examples for an assessment the owner completes.
Sensitive locations
sites near high-integrity areas
Nature-related risk register
| Water scarcity at site 3 | Physical, acute | Abstraction and drought | High | Water stewardship plan |
| Habitat conversion in supply chain | Transition, market | Land use change | Medium | Supplier screening |
| Community objection | Systemic, social | Consent gaps | Medium | Consent records review |
| Pollinator decline | Physical, chronic | Pesticide use | Low | Monitor |
Ecosystem service evidence.
Ecosystem service accounts and dependency analyses are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series; financial disclosure questions are taken up by The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) within its own boundaries. Useful contributions: national ecosystem accounts, local valuation studies and critiques of valuation methods.
Model ecosystem services as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Biodiversity and nature risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Deforestation
- Biodiversity loss (set off downstream)
- Soil erosion (set off downstream)
- Land-system change boundary transgression (set off downstream)
- Amazon rainforest dieback (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Zoonotic spillover event (set off downstream)
- Wildfire (set off downstream)
- Emerging arbovirus outbreak (set off downstream)
- Malaria resurgence (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Biodiversity and nature risk standards
- Climate risk standards Feedback
- Health risk standards Cascade
- Food and agriculture risk standards Dependency
- Environmental degradation hazard standards Shared hazard records
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-1The UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-3bDataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NS-5Figure, map and visualisation standard (with the UI/UX kit)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-N5Biodiversity and nature risk and resilienceNRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H27Hazard family: Biodiversity and species stress (NHS-1 eco.species)NRS-H26Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation (NHS-1 eco.land)NRS-H28Hazard family: Climate-state shifts (NHS-1 eco.climate-state)NRS-H64Hazard family: Ecosystem regime shifts (NHS-1 eco.regime-shift)
Observation
- GBIF occurrence API and downloads (listed for reference)
- World Database on Protected and Conserved Areas (listed for reference)
- Global Forest Watch tree cover loss (Hansen/UMD) and alerts (listed for reference)
- ESA WorldCover 10 m land cover (listed for reference)
- Copernicus Land Monitoring Service products (listed for reference)
- Red List Index
- Forest area as a proportion of total land area
- Proportion of important sites for terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity covered by protected areas
Example geography
- Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollinator-dependent crop production | tonnes and share of production by crop | annual | Crop statistics with dependence ratios | ESTIMATED |
| Pollinator visitation rate | visits per flower per hour | per survey | Field observation | OBSERVED |
| Flood regulation service | cubic metres of water retained per event | per event | Hydrological and ecosystem service models | MODELLED |
| Sediment retention | tonnes per hectare per year | annual | Ecosystem service models such as InVEST | MODELLED |
| Sector dependency rating | materiality rating per service | periodic | ENCORE knowledge base | ESTIMATED |
| Ecosystem service supply and use account | physical units and monetary value per service | per accounting period | SEEA Ecosystem Accounting | ESTIMATED |
| Coastal protection by habitats | people or assets kept out of flooding per storm scenario | per scenario | Coastal flood models with and without habitats | MODELLED |
The sector signature of ecosystem services.
The sectors ecosystem services touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Signature
Biodiversity and its partners
Biodiversity gives pollination and soils to food (0.6), watershed regulation to water (0.5) and zoonotic spillover and medicines to health (0.4).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.46 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
- Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| ENCORE (Exploring Natural Capital Opportunities, Risks and Exposure) | Links between economic activities, ecosystem services and natural capital | Free, attribution, terms of use |
| National SEEA Ecosystem Accounting accounts | Ecosystem extent, condition and service accounts from statistical offices | Public records, terms per agency |
| InVEST (Natural Capital Project) and ARIES | Open-source models of ecosystem service supply and flow | Open-source software licences |
| FAOSTAT crop production | Crop production statistics for dependency estimates | Free and open, attribution |
| IPBES assessment on pollinators, pollination and food production | Assessed evidence on pollination dependence and drivers of pollinator decline | Free and open, attribution |
| Global Mangrove Watch with coastal flood models | Habitat extent for estimating coastal protection | Free and open, attribution |
How ecosystem services is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Earth observation chain
How a satellite or sensor record becomes evidence on ecosystem services, and where each step adds uncertainty.
- 01 · Acquireorbit, sensor and revisitUncertainty: gaps from cloud and orbit
- 02 · Calibrateradiometric and geometricUncertainty: sensor drift
- 03 · Correctatmosphere and terrainUncertainty: aerosol and slope assumptions
- 04 · Retrieve or classifythe variable or the classUncertainty: model and training error
- 05 · Validateagainst ground truthUncertainty: sample design and size
- 06 · Publishwith error bars and lineageUncertainty: stated, never hidden
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Biodiversity Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Finance and planning ministries | How ecosystem services enter national accounts, budgets and development plans | SEEA service accounts with methods stated; dependency maps by sector |
| Central banks and financial supervisors | How nature-related risk enters prudential supervision and scenario analysis | Sector dependencies, location-specific service loss, cascade traces with labels |
| Companies and financial institutions preparing disclosures | Which dependencies and impacts are material under TNFD and how to report them | ENCORE dependencies refined by location; service supply and condition at sites |
| Agriculture agencies and farmer organisations | Where pollinator habitat and soil protection secure yields | Pollinator dependence of crops, habitat proximity, visitation surveys |
Outputs this topic produces
- Dependency maps linking sites, sectors and services
- Service supply, flow and demand layers
- Ecosystem service accounts aligned with SEEA
- Cascade traces from service loss to livelihoods and finance
What experts ask.
Researchers on ecosystem services ask where benefits come from and who relies on them.
- Which ecosystems supply which services, and how does supply change with condition?
- Who uses the service, where, and what substitutes exist if it declines?
- How sensitive is service supply to thresholds, for example in pollinator abundance or wetland area?
- How do changes upstream or upwind affect beneficiaries far away?
- When does valuation help decisions, and when does it hide distributional or cultural losses?
From ecological function to human benefit.
A service exists where an ecological function meets a human need. Pollination becomes a service where insect-pollinated crops are grown within the foraging range of pollinators; flood buffering becomes a service where a wetland lies upstream of homes and infrastructure. Supply depends on ecosystem condition and configuration; demand depends on where people are and what they do. Mapping both, and the flow between them, is the core of the field.
Losses transmit through production, prices and public budgets. Reduced pollination lowers yields or raises costs of managed alternatives; degraded catchments raise water treatment costs; lost coastal habitat increases damage and the need for engineered defences. Effects fall hardest on those without substitutes, which is why dependency analysis looks at distribution as well as totals.
How the evidence is built, and where it stops.
- 01
Service mapping
Spatial models of supply, demand and flow with geospatial information systems. Many rely on land-cover proxies that miss condition.
- 02
Biophysical modelling
Process models estimate water regulation, sediment retention or pollination. They need local data to be credible.
- 03
Valuation
Economic methods estimate value in money where markets do not. Results vary widely with method, and some losses cannot be meaningfully priced.
- 04
Dependency assessment
Mapping which sectors and communities depend on which services, drawing on complex systems modelling. Dependency is not the same as financial materiality.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Ecology and biodiversity scienceSpecies distribution modelling · Population trend and viability analysisApplied here
- 02Hydrology and water scienceEnvironmental flow assessment · Flood regulation by wetlands and forestsApplied here
- 03Geospatial information systemsOverlap with sensitive biodiversity · Connectivity and corridor analysisApplied here
- 04Causal inference and impact evaluationProtected area effectiveness · Restoration and payment programme evaluationApplied here
- 05Complex systems and agent-based modellingEarly warning of regime shifts · Food-web and co-extinction networksApplied here
- 06Spatial statistics and geostatisticsBias-corrected distribution surfaces · Hotspots of change and threatApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- Díaz and others, Assessing nature’s contributions to people, Science 359 (2018)
- IPBES Methodological Assessment Report on the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature (IPBES, 2022)
- System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, Ecosystem Accounting (UN Statistical Commission, adopted 2021)
- Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD, 2023)
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
Questions and answers.
Why put a value on ecosystem services?
What is the difference between a dependency and an impact?
Does ENCORE tell a company its exact risk?
Does the platform put a monetary value on nature?
What is the difference between dependency and impact?
Can service maps be used for site decisions?
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