National Model
The National Model is a governed representation of a country's systems: what they are, how they depend on each other, what evidence supports each part and how uncertain it is. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) provides the methods and tools to build it in Nexus Foundry; the country holds the model, its data and its decisions. A National Model is a structured way of examining a country's risks. It is never presented as a validated causal model or a forecast of what will happen. Return to National Nexus.
- 01InstitutionThe Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- 02Service levelR0: information and enquiries
- 03In briefThe short answer
- 04StructureFour layers of a National Model
- 05ToolsBuilt in Nexus Foundry
- 06RulesHow the model stays honest
- 07Key termsTerms used on this page
GCRI · Institution · service level R0
The short answer.
The National Model is a governed representation of a country's systems: what they are, how they depend on each other, what evidence supports each part and how uncertain it is. GCRI provides the methods and tools to build it in Nexus Foundry, while the country holds the model, its data and its decisions; it is a way of examining risk, never a forecast.
Systemic exposure in North America.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for North America as an example geography for this subject.
Four layers of a National Model.
- 01
Country context
Institutional structure, geography, population and material economic and service conditions within scope.
- 02
Systems and interdependencies
Water, energy, food, health, biodiversity and infrastructure, and the transmission channels between them.
- 03
Evidence
Sources with evidence labels, rights and lineage; missing data shown as missing, never as zero.
- 04
Uncertainty
Ranges, assumptions and sensitivities stated beside each result.
How the model stays honest.
- Each analysis states the systems it couples, the mechanism of transmission and its assumptions.
- A dependency map is never presented as a validated causal model.
- Data reported by authorities is kept apart from Nexus estimates, which stay labelled as estimates.
- Restricted topology and protected community knowledge never appear in public views.
- The country may decline to share any part of its model.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Digital twin | A computational representation of a physical system that is updated with data from it and used to explore its behaviour. |
| System of systems | A set of independently operated systems whose interaction delivers capabilities none provides alone. |
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Dependency mapping | Tracing the people, processes, technology, facilities and suppliers a service relies on. |
No National Model is published.
No national programme is recorded as constituted or active, so no country's desk, model or portfolio is shown as operating. The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. Models feed the quarterly country editions of Nexus Reports and the National Portfolio. Methods are explained on Models and scenarios. Financial transmission of the same risks is examined by The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) on National portfolio interface.
Questions and answers.
Who owns a National Model?
Is the model a digital twin of the country?
How is a model kept up to date?
Can a model be compared with other countries?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.