GCRI · 社会与人类发展
方法与不确定性
The methods Society and Human Development relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
Methods and uncertainty in five parts.
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- 社会科学Role hereSocial and behavioural science is the science this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedEthics review and consent; Coverage reporting; Triangulation
- 因果推断Role hereCausal inference and impact evaluation estimate whether programmes and shocks changed people’s lives, compared with what would otherwise have happened.Checks appliedPre-registration; Balance and attrition checks; Heterogeneity analysis
- 空间统计Role hereSpatial statistics estimate social conditions for small areas and map how vulnerability and hazards overlap.Checks appliedModel validation; Uncertainty mapping; Privacy protection
- 计量经济学Role hereEconometrics estimates relationships in social and economic data.Checks appliedMeasurement error; Robustness to specification; Attrition analysis
流程如何运行。
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
10 steps·4 个阶段·2 道关口
流程
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
A source is registered and assessed, its record labelled and classified, and a Digital Evidence Passport carries provenance; a correction reaches every dependent record.
01 受理
- 01识别来源来源 · 来源管理方发现不等于纳入。来源识别记录来源类别、管理方、机构角色和管辖范围。
- 03登记来源步骤登记使已发现的来源成为证据生命周期中受治理的参与方。它不意味着任何背书或认证。
02 评估
- 04管辖范围与权利分类关口权利分类识别许可、同意、保密和再利用限制。其结果决定访问和流转路径。
- 05证据质量评估步骤质量评估决定一条记录是否适合既定用途。质量是多维度的，绝不是单一分数。
- 06证据标签步骤每项发现都带有九种证据标签之一。缺失数据显示为缺失，绝不显示为零。
03 记录
04 使用与更正
- 02更正传达到依赖记录步骤 · NXS-GRX（规范数据、来源追溯与风险）来源更正会传递到依赖它的切片和产品，而不改写旧结果。
- 10公开安全审查关口可公开审查决定一条记录能否公开共享。这是一个独立阶段，并非验证。
数据协议：证据生命周期 · Data protocols: core data objects and evidence records · The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX)Designed programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The data-protocol pages describe a design, not a running system.
Where uncertainty in human development analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| 来源 | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Survey data | Infrequent and sometimes outdated | Survey year stated |
| Displacement counts | Methods differ between sources | Source and definition stated |
| Composite indices | Weighting choices matter | Components shown |
如何报告不确定性。
- 01
说明假设
每项分析都列出其假设及其所依赖的数据。
- 02
尽可能量化
在报告中心估计值的同时报告区间与置信度。
- 03
验证与比较
模型会对照观测数据进行核查，并在可能时与其他模型进行对照。
- 04
发布限制
分析无法说明的内容与其能够说明的内容并列陈述。
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
方法是开放的吗？
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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