The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Society and Human Development relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
The Society and Human Development methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them social and behavioural science, causal inference and impact evaluation, and spatial statistics and geostatistics, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, land cover and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, land cover and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Survey data | Infrequent and sometimes outdated | Survey year stated |
| Displacement counts | Methods differ between sources | Source and definition stated |
| Composite indices | Weighting choices matter | Components shown |
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Social and behavioural science | Social and behavioural science studies how individuals, groups and institutions think, act and organise. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.