GCRI · Society and Human Development
Methods and uncertainty
The methods Society and Human Development relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
Methods and uncertainty in five parts.
The methods in use.
- 01Social and behavioural scienceSurvey design for hard-to-reach groups · Qualitative and participatory researchApplied here
- 02Causal inference and impact evaluationEvaluating cash transfers · Effects of disasters on households · Education programme evaluationApplied here
- 03Spatial statistics and geostatisticsSmall-area poverty estimation · Vulnerability and hazard overlayApplied here
- 04EconometricsPoverty dynamics with panel data · Price shock incidence · Inequality decompositionApplied here
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- Social scienceRole hereSocial and behavioural science is the science this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedEthics review and consent; Coverage reporting; Triangulation
- Causal inferenceRole hereCausal inference and impact evaluation estimate whether programmes and shocks changed people’s lives, compared with what would otherwise have happened.Checks appliedPre-registration; Balance and attrition checks; Heterogeneity analysis
- Spatial statisticsRole hereSpatial statistics estimate social conditions for small areas and map how vulnerability and hazards overlap.Checks appliedModel validation; Uncertainty mapping; Privacy protection
- EconometricsRole hereEconometrics estimates relationships in social and economic data.Checks appliedMeasurement error; Robustness to specification; Attrition analysis
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
10 steps·4 stages·2 gates
Process
Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record
A source is registered and assessed, its record labelled and classified, and a Digital Evidence Passport carries provenance; a correction reaches every dependent record.
01 Intake
- 01Identify the sourceSource · The source stewardDiscovery is not ingestion. Source identification records the source class, steward, institutional role and jurisdiction.
- 03Register the sourceStepRegistration makes a discovered source a governed participant in the evidence lifecycle. It implies no endorsement or certification.
02 Assessment
- 04Jurisdiction and rights classificationGateRights classification identifies licence, consent, confidentiality and reuse limits. The result determines access and routing.
- 05Evidence quality assessmentStepQuality assessment decides whether a record is fit for a defined use. Quality is multidimensional and never a single score.
- 06Evidence labelStepEvery finding carries one of nine evidence labels. Missing data is shown as missing, never as zero.
03 Record
- 07Evidence classificationRecordClassification gives records lifecycle states, such as source-verified, public-safe or restricted. States can coexist and set evidence use.
- 08Source release and identifierRecord · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)A source release records rights, temporal coverage and source lineage. A UNI is allocated through a catalogue and never typed by hand.
- 09Digital Evidence PassportRecordThe passport records provenance, quality, rights, jurisdiction, permitted use and history, so evidence keeps its context when it travels.
04 Use and correction
- 02Correction reaches dependent recordsStep · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)A source correction propagates to dependent cuts and products without rewriting old results.
- 10Public-safe reviewGatePublic-safe review decides whether a record can be shared publicly. It is a distinct stage and is not validation.
Data protocols: evidence lifecycle · Data protocols: core data objects and evidence records · The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX)Designed programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The data-protocol pages describe a design, not a running system.
Where uncertainty in human development analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Survey data | Infrequent and sometimes outdated | Survey year stated |
| Displacement counts | Methods differ between sources | Source and definition stated |
| Composite indices | Weighting choices matter | Components shown |
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
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