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GCRI · جامعه و توسعهٔ انسانی

روش‌ها و عدم قطعیت

The methods Society and Human Development relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.

ثبت پرس‌وجو Back to Research and evidence
01فهرست مطالب

Methods and uncertainty in five parts.

در این پرونده5 parts
  1. 01روش‌هاThe methods in use
  2. 02Method registerEach method, its role in this field and how it is checked
  3. 03عدم قطعیتWhere uncertainty in human development analysis comes from, and how it is shown
  4. 04عدم قطعیتHow uncertainty is reported
  5. 05منابعWhere this page’s references lead
02روش‌ها

The methods in use.

  1. علوم اجتماعی و رفتاریSurvey design for hard-to-reach groups · Qualitative and participatory researchApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  2. استنباط علّی و ارزیابی اثرEvaluating cash transfers · Effects of disasters on households · Education programme evaluationApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  3. آمار مکانی و زمین‌آمارSmall-area poverty estimation · Vulnerability and hazard overlayApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  4. اقتصادسنجیPoverty dynamics with panel data · Price shock incidence · Inequality decompositionApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
03Method register

Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.

04فرایند

نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.

Process explorer · Process

Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record

10 steps4 مرحله2 دروازه

فرایند

Methods and uncertainty: Source to evidence record

A source is registered and assessed, its record labelled and classified, and a Digital Evidence Passport carries provenance; a correction reaches every dependent record.

  1. 01 Intake

    1. 01Identify the sourceSource · The source stewardDiscovery is not ingestion. Source identification records the source class, steward, institutional role and jurisdiction.
    2. 03Register the sourceگامRegistration makes a discovered source a governed participant in the evidence lifecycle. It implies no endorsement or certification.

  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 04Jurisdiction and rights classificationدروازهRights classification identifies licence, consent, confidentiality and reuse limits. The result determines access and routing.
    2. 05Evidence quality assessmentگامQuality assessment decides whether a record is fit for a defined use. Quality is multidimensional and never a single score.
    3. 06Evidence labelگامEvery finding carries one of nine evidence labels. Missing data is shown as missing, never as zero.

  3. 03 Record

    1. 07Evidence classificationسابقهClassification gives records lifecycle states, such as source-verified, public-safe or restricted. States can coexist and set evidence use.
    2. 08Source release and identifierسابقه · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)A source release records rights, temporal coverage and source lineage. A UNI is allocated through a catalogue and never typed by hand.
    3. 09Digital Evidence PassportسابقهThe passport records provenance, quality, rights, jurisdiction, permitted use and history, so evidence keeps its context when it travels.

  4. 04 Use and correction

    1. 02Correction reaches dependent recordsStep · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)A source correction propagates to dependent cuts and products without rewriting old results.
    2. 10داوری امن برای عمومدروازهPublic-safe review decides whether a record can be shared publicly. It is a distinct stage and is not validation.

Data protocols: evidence lifecycle · Data protocols: core data objects and evidence records · The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX)Designed programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The data-protocol pages describe a design, not a running system.

05عدم قطعیت

Where uncertainty in human development analysis comes from, and how it is shown.

منبعWhy it matters hereHow it is reported
Survey dataInfrequent and sometimes outdatedSurvey year stated
Displacement countsMethods differ between sourcesSource and definition stated
Composite indicesWeighting choices matterComponents shown
06How uncertainty is reported

How uncertainty is reported.

  1. 01

    State assumptions

    Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.

  2. 02

    Quantify where possible

    Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.

  3. 03

    Validate and compare

    Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.

  4. 04

    Publish limits

    What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.

07منابع

Where this page’s references lead.

نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه بر پایهٔ آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.

08پرسش‌ها

پرسش و پاسخ.

Are the methods open?
Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. Code and data follow their own licences and access terms, listed in the source register.
گزارش‌هامشارکت

شواهد را از همین صفحه ارسال کنید.

گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIجامعه و توسعه انسانیریسک و تاب‌آوری سامانه‌های کشوریگزارش مختصر شواهد

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جامعه و توسعه انسانی

یک روش، یک مجموعه‌داده یا یک پرسش بیاورید.

اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.

پیشنهاد یک روش دیدن همهٔ مسیرهای تماس
حقوقی

نقشه‌ها، داده‌ها و ارقام این سایت برای زمینه و اطلاعات عمومی نشان داده می‌شوند. توصیه، پیش‌بینی یا هشدار نیستند؛ حدود این اطلاعات در سلب مسئولیت‌ها و اعلامیه‌های داده بیان شده است.