Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Finance is where shocks are priced
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Sovereign bond repricing under inflation and thin fiscal space
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World output growth (IMF) | 3.5 | % | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| World output growth (World Bank) | 2.9 | % | 2025 | Reported | 7 |
| World output growth projection (IMF) | 3.1 | % | 2026 | Scenario | 2 |
| World output growth projection (World Bank) | 2.5 | % | 2026 | Scenario | 5 |
| World inflation, IMF average consumer prices | 4.1 | % | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| World inflation, World Bank consumer prices | 3.0 | % | 2025 | Reported | 7 |
| Advanced-economy government gross debt | 108.2 | % of GDP | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Emerging and developing economy government gross debt | 73.7 | % of GDP | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Euro area government gross debt | 87.7 | % of GDP | 2025 | Reported | 20 |
| Developing-country public debt | 35 | USD trillion | 2025 | Reported | 10 |
| Developing-country net interest | 995 | USD billion | 2025 | Reported | 10 |
| Median interest share of government revenue | 8.1 | % | 2025 | Reported | 10 |
| Non-bank share of advanced-economy sovereign debt | 53 | % | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| US dollar share of allocated reserves | 56.7 | % | 2026 Q2 | Reported | 4 |
| Foreign direct investment | 1.6 | USD trillion | 2025 | Reported | 9 |
| Remittances received, world | 925.6 | USD billion | 2025 | Reported | 7 |
| Adults with an account | 79 | % | 2024 | Reported | 8 |
| External debt service, low and middle income | 13.1 | % of exports | 2024 | Reported | 7 |
| Euro area deposit facility rate | 2.50 | % | 2026 | Reported | 19 |
B.2Global source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- FIN
- TRD
- SYS
- HLT
- FOO
- INF
- AIC
- BIO
- DAT
- MIN
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF World Economic Outlook database2 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2025 | semiannual | growth, inflation, debt |
| World Bank Global Economic Prospects5 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2026 | semiannual | growth outlook |
| BIS Annual Economic Report1 | intergovernmental bank | global | 2025 | annual | debt, markets, AI |
| UNCTAD World Investment Report9 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2025 | annual | investment |
| UNCTAD A World of Debt10 | intergovernmental agency | developing countries | 2025 | annual | public debt, interest |
| IMF COFER4 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2026 | quarterly | reserves |
| Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report17 | national central bank | United States | 2025 | semiannual | vulnerabilities |
| ECB Financial Stability Review18 | regional central bank | euro area | 2026 | semiannual | stability |
| Eurostat government finance statistics20 | national statistics agency | euro area | 2025 | annual | debt |
| Global Findex8 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2024 | triennial | inclusion |
B.3Regional reading: finance and economy across ten clusters
Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | public debt of USD 40.5 trillion; hedge fund leverage near records | bond markets, banks | US Treasury21; Federal Reserve17 |
| South America | foreign direct investment up 14% to USD 188 billion | investment, banks | UNCTAD9 |
| Europe | policy rate at 2.50%; euro area debt 87.7% of GDP | banks, bond markets | ECB19; Eurostat20 |
| Eurasia | not bound at this baseline | not bound | regional statistics (not bound) |
| Middle East and North Africa | region worst affected by the conflict in the World Bank outlook | trade, budgets | World Bank5 |
| Africa | foreign direct investment about USD 70 billion; interest above health or education for 65% of people | budgets, health | UNCTAD910 |
| South Asia | fastest growing developing region; foreign direct investment up 44% | investment, trade | World Bank5; UNCTAD9 |
| East Asia | China’s direct investment in ASEAN rose from USD 10 billion in 2017 to over USD 34 billion in 2024 | investment, supply chains | BIS1 |
| ASEAN | trade diversion and investment links with East Asia | trade, investment | BIS1 |
| Oceania-Pacific | not bound at this baseline | not bound | regional statistics (not bound) |
B.4Market card: advanced-economy sovereign bond markets
- sovereign
- repo
- non-bank
- cross-border
- Systems in view
- banks, hedge funds, funds, insurers, pension funds, central banks
- Defining facts
- non-bank share of holdings 44% in 2021 and 53% in 20251; hedge fund leverage near records17
- Couplings
- FIN → HLT budgets; FIN → INF funding; ENE → FIN rates
- Capability evidence
- central bank backstops and supervisory reviews1718
- Gaps
- holder detail by country; repo funding volumes
- Agenda items
- F-01 · F-03
Hedge funds finance government bond positions through repo, often supplied by banks, so a funding squeeze can force sales across markets [1].
MARKET
Funding dependence
Government bond liquidity can be ample for long periods and vanish abruptly, which makes fiscal space shrink before debt reaches long-run limits [1].
SECURITY
Liquidity
Central banks publish regular reviews of these vulnerabilities and of the role of non-banks [17] [18].
LEARNING
Public stability reviews
B.5How countries appear in the finance and economy edition
Countries enter the finance and economy edition through the economy and finance chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.
| Card field | What it shows | Source |
|---|---|---|
| WEFH+B state | each core system against peer distribution bands | national edition |
| Couplings | the national dependency matrix | national edition |
| Risk objects | the national risk portfolio | national edition |
| Capability rungs | the national capability ladder | national edition |
| Evidence age | oldest and newest source dates | national source register |
Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme
26national
countries and unions
10regional
clusters
16global
flagship and sector
20frontier
technology reports
How to read a country card
- Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
- Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
- Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
- Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
| Wave | Countries and unions | State |
|---|---|---|
| W0 | Canada | ISSUED |
| W1 | United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland | PLANNED |
| W2 | Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia | PLANNED |
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- DC-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back