References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Finance is where shocks are priced
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Sovereign bond repricing under inflation and thin fiscal space
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.147 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
- 3International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, April 2026 vintage (world aggregates), retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 5World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
- 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 11Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer’s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
- 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 13POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
- 14POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Sound practices for the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): final report, October 2026 (publication page); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 15POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
- 20POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 21POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
- 22Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 23European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 24IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards developed by the International Sustainability Standards Board (information page; the individual standards were not opened). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 26United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 28Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 29Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 31Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 32Kolesar, R.J. and Spruk, R., Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence From Greece, Health Economics 35, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). John Wiley and Sons. Observation year 2020 (study period 2010 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Development co-operation preliminary data on official development assistance in 2025; the OECD site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Trade Organization (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026; the page tried was not found and no figure from it is used. WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 of the European Parliament and of the Council on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the legal-acts portal did not return the text. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory; no figure is used. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Financial Action Task Force (ed.), The FATF Recommendations, current consolidated text; the publisher site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. FATF, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Sevilla Commitment, outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, Sevilla, 30 June to 3 July 2025, cited from the forum outcome [27]; the document itself was not opened. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks, American Economic Review, 2015, cited from memory; only a bibliographic record of the 2013 working paper version was checked. American Economic Association. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Battiston, S., Puliga, M., Kaushik, R., Tasca, P. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: Too central to fail? Financial networks, the FED and systemic risk, Scientific Reports 2, 2012, cited from memory; no figure is used. Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements for Disclosure of Sustainability-related Financial Information and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures, June 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 47World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026, chapter 3 (government debt in emerging market and developing economies; full report PDF opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Global Finance and Economy Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Global Sector Series GS-05
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 finance and economy edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-05 | NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-SEC-GS-05-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for Global Finance and Economy; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- GS-05 edition Reports Global Finance and Economy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-05 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |