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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Finance is where shocks are priced
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Sovereign bond repricing under inflation and thin fiscal space
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

FIN · Output

Growth in world output

3.5%

IMF basis; 2.9% on the World Bank basis.

Reported2025IMF2

FIN · Debt

Advanced-economy government gross debt

108.2% of GDP

emerging and developing economies 73.7%.

Reported2025IMF2

FIN · Interest

Developing countries’ net interest on public debt

995USD billion

median 8.1% of government revenue.

Reported2025UNCTAD10

TRD · Investment

Global foreign direct investment

1.6USD trillion

up 6%; developing economies USD 901 billion.

Reported2025UNCTAD9

FIN · Inclusion

Adults with an account

79%

40% of adults in developing economies saved in a financial account.

Reported2024Findex8

SYS · Cross-system

Euro area deposit facility rate

2.50%

raised on 17 June and 16 September 2026 from 2.00%.

Reported2026ECB19

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through finance and economy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries finance and economy risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATUtilities and irrigation depend on public and development finance and on credit. No consolidated global series is bound here.FIN ↔ WATExpert input EQL 1
ENEEnergy price shocks reach policy rates, inflation and budgets. The euro area deposit facility rate rose to 2.50% in 2026.ENE → FINReported EQL 4
FOOFood prices were 5.8% above a year earlier in September 2026 and fertiliser prices rose 50% after the conflict began.ENE → FOO → FINReported EQL 3
HLTInterest exceeds health or education spending in 51 developing countries; a Senegal case study links external debt to constrained health budgets.FIN → HLTReported EQL 4
BIONature loss is a sovereign credit risk in a scenario across 23 countries; current ratings do not reflect it.BIO → FINScenario EQL 2
CLIOne in four adults in low and middle income economies faced a natural disaster in the past three years; insured loss series were not opened.CLI → FINReported EQL 2
INFPayment versus payment settles 36% of foreign exchange obligations; Basel III adoption is 47% complete; the EU digital resilience rules apply.FIN ↔ INFReported EQL 4
FINDebt, reserves, non-bank leverage and bond yields at decade highs define the core of the system.the core systemReported EQL 8
DATOfficial series are open through data services, but growth and inflation differ by issuer and some world aggregates are not published.DAT → FINReported EQL 3
AICAI capital expenditure above USD 1 trillion in 2025 and 2026 lifts investment and valuations; FSB sound practices address AI in finance.AIC → FINReported EQL 4
MINInput and commodity price spikes reach finance through inflation; mineral-specific finance is not consolidated here.MIN → FINInferred EQL 1
TRDForeign direct investment of USD 1.6 trillion is concentrated in a few strategic sectors and economies.TRD ↔ FINReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on finance and economy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemfinance prices every other system’s shock110sovereign repricingPARTIAL
GS-01Waterutility and irrigation finance not consolidatedinfrastructure funding gapsTHIN
GS-02Energyenergy-driven inflation and rate rises119price shock transmissionGOOD
GS-03Foodfood price index 5.8% above a year earlier25input cost pass-throughPARTIAL
GS-04Healthinterest exceeds health spending in many countries10budget displacementGOOD
GS-05Financedebt, reserves and non-bank leverage241sovereign bond repricingGOOD
GS-06Developmentofficial assistance down 23.1% in real terms27financing squeezeGOOD
GS-07Climateone in four adults faced a disaster in three years8disaster financeTHIN
GS-08Disasterinsured loss series not openedprotection gapsTHIN
GS-09Infrastructurepayment and settlement systems12settlement riskPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesmunicipal finance not consolidatedborrowing costsTHIN
GS-11Biodiversitynature risk in sovereign credit30credit repricingPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationdata for exposure and loss estimationcontinuity of dataTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaldigital operational resilience rules23outsourcing and cyber stressPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyBasel III and FSB standards2215implementation gapsGOOD
GS-15Sciencefinancial network research2829data on non-bank linksPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 23European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 28Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 29Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Finance and Economy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Financial and Economic System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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