Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables17 notesNR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Net interest per dollar of public debt, developing countries, 2025	995 ÷ 35,000	≈2.8%
(2)	Gap between advanced and emerging debt ratios, 2025	108.2 − 73.7 percentage points	34.5 percentage points
(3)	Gap between IMF and World Bank growth projections for 2026	3.1 − 2.5 percentage points (different bases)	≈0.6 percentage points
(4)	Share of remittances to low and middle income economies, 2025	703.6 ÷ 925.6 USD billion	≈76%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Finance and Economy Sector Model v0

Model ID: MDL-GS05-FINANCE · v0.1
Purpose: represent the global financial and economic system and its couplings to food, health, nature and the other core systems
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

3strong

documented within one season

5moderate

documented, buffered

12weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 47 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 finance and economy annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Finance and Economy Sector Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Output and inflation	2025	Oct 2026	semiannual	IMF April 2027 outlook
Government debt ratios	2025	Oct 2026	semiannual	next outlook update
Developing-country interest	2025	2026	annual	next A World of Debt
Investment flows	2025	Jul 2026	annual	next World Investment Report
Official reserves	2026 Q2	2026	quarterly	next COFER release
Non-bank holdings	2025	Jun 2026	annual	next Annual Economic Report
Bond yields	2026	Oct 2026	monthly	monthly
Policy rates	2026	Sep 2026	on each change	next ECB decision
Settlement risk	Apr 2025	Jun 2026	triennial	next Triennial Survey
Account ownership	2024	2025	triennial	next Findex

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Output and prices	GOOD	one world basis for growth and inflation
Public debt	PARTIAL	world aggregate on one basis
Markets and leverage	PARTIAL	private credit; yield levels at close
Reserves and currencies	GOOD	currency valuation effects
Investment and trade	GOOD	trade volume outlook
Inclusion and remittances	PARTIAL	remittance costs by corridor
Insurance and protection	THIN	insured losses and protection gaps
Resilience	PARTIAL	tested capabilities beyond rule adoption

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Government debt on one global basis	IMF world aggregate for general government gross debt; BIS and IIF series²¹¹¹	the IMF data service returned no world aggregate for the debt ratio; the IIF figure covers all sectors and is not comparable
Sovereign bond yield levels at the evidence close	central bank and market data; World Bank monthly note⁶	the note gives the direction and a decade-high comparison but not the yield levels; the data service of the US central bank was not reachable
Euro area inflation after December 2025	ECB Data Portal harmonised index¹⁹	the series returned by the portal ended in December 2025 at retrieval; no 2026 inflation value is used
Private credit market size and losses	FSB, ECB and Federal Reserve work on private credit¹³¹⁸¹⁷	the reports describe vulnerabilities but no consolidated global figure was opened
Stablecoin supply at the evidence close on one basis	FSB note on global stablecoin arrangements¹³; BIS¹	the BIS gives a figure for end-May 2026; the FSB data table was not extracted; not mixed
IMF Global Financial Stability Report and Fiscal Monitor of October 2026	IMF publications³³³⁴	publication pages returned access denied; no figure from them is used
Insured natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps	reinsurer and insurer research³⁷	publisher page returned access denied; no figure used
Climate scenarios for financial supervisors	Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios³⁸	publisher page returned access denied; no figure used
World trade volume outlook for 2026 and 2027	WTO trade outlook³⁶	the page tried was not found; the IMF data service gives export volume growth but not the WTO view
Cross-border payment progress against the G20 targets	FSB annual progress report¹⁶	the report was not located; the programme page gave no figures
Remittance costs by corridor	World Bank remittance price data	not retrieved
Official development assistance in 2026	OECD preliminary and final data³⁵	not yet published; the OECD site returned access denied; the 2025 fall is taken from the UN forum outcome²⁷
Utility and irrigation finance, by region	development banks and national statistics offices	no consolidated global series found at evidence close
Household debt service by country	central banks and the BIS	not consolidated; not retrieved
Capability rungs beyond rule adoption	regulators, supervisors, treasuries	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the International Monetary Fund. The October 2026 vintage carries a publication date of 13 October 2026 in the dataset record and was retrieved through the IMF data service, with the April 2026 vintage [3] for comparison. Semiannual. Role: binds FIN-001 and FIN-002. The IMF pages were closed to the editors, so the database is the opened source.

EVD-GS05-001

IMF World Economic Outlook database²

Compiled by UNCTAD from national and international debt statistics. Annual. Role: binds FIN-003 and HLT-008. The key statistics were read on the report page; the full report and data file were not opened.

EVD-GS05-002

UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026¹⁰

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-GS05-001	EVD-GS05-002
Completeness	all economies in the IMF database; world aggregates for growth and prices only	developing countries as grouped by UNCTAD
Timeliness	about 9 months after the year for 2025 estimates	about 9 months after the year
Revision	two vintages in 2026 shown for world growth	annual edition; no revision notice read
Method transparency	database metadata published	indicator definitions published
External validation	compared with the World Bank series	compiled from national and creditor data

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

IMF²: world aggregate for the debt ratio on one basis
BIS¹: data tables behind the Annual Economic Report
UNCTAD¹⁰: country data file for interest and revenue
ECB¹⁹: inflation series after December 2025

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	finance and economy, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AE	advanced economies
BCBS	Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
BIS	Bank for International Settlements
COFER	Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves
EMDE	emerging market and developing economies
FDI	foreign direct investment
FSB	Financial Stability Board
IIF	Institute of International Finance
IMF	International Monetary Fund
NBFI	non-bank financial institution
ODA	official development assistance
PvP	payment versus payment

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-GS05-SOV-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Market and payment-system notes	cards for the major shared bond markets and payment systems	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: net interest on public debt

Construct: interest paid on public debt less interest received, in current US dollars and as a share of government revenue
Unit: USD billion and share of revenue
Method: issuer compilation from national and international debt statistics
Source: UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026¹⁰
Uncertainty: national definitions of public debt and revenue differ
Known limits: does not show the maturity, currency or holder structure of the debt

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer’s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Trade Organization (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026; the page tried was not found and no figure from it is used. WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Development co-operation preliminary data on official development assistance in 2025; the OECD site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Global Finance and Economy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Financial and Economic System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

Name	Purpose	Duration	Party
`wordpress_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out	First party
`wordpress_logged_in_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_sec_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_test_cookie`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`wp-settings-*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	1 year	First party
`wp-postpass_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	10 days	First party
`comment_author_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	About 347 days	First party
`wpEmojiSettingsSupports`browser storage	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`nexus_consent`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_id`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_reset`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	Session	First party
`wp_consent_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent`browser storage	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nx_theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.theme.default`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode-against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.embed.theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_dark_mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_color_mode_against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.a11y`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.dock`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bp-activity`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-groups`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-members`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-blogs`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-messages`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party