Global Finance and Economy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Financial and Economic System.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the finance and economy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. World output grew 3.5% in 2025 on the IMF basis and 2.9% on the World Bank basis.²⁷

   How fast is the economy growing?Reported

2. Advanced economies carry 108.2% of GDP and emerging and developing economies 73.7%.²

   How heavy is public debt?Reported

3. Developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest in 2025.¹⁰

   Who pays most to borrow?Reported

4. Non-banks hold 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt.¹

   Who holds the debt?Reported

5. It held 56.7% of allocated reserves in the second quarter of 2026.⁴

   Is the dollar still the anchor?Reported

6. A few AI megaprojects drove global foreign direct investment to USD 1.6 trillion.⁹

   Where is investment going?Reported

7. Food prices were 5.8% above a year earlier in September 2026.²⁵

   Do prices reach households?Reported

8. A repricing of sovereign bonds under inflation and thin fiscal space. SCN-GS05-SOV-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

In 2025, developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on USD 35 trillion of public debt, a median 8.1% of government revenue.

The interest bill is now large enough to compete with services. UNCTAD counts 51 developing countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, and 3.7 billion people living in them, 1.2 billion more than in 2010¹⁰. The pressure is also the product of supply: bilateral lenders have diverted assistance and private creditors have become more risk averse, so developing countries borrow more at home¹⁰.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is finance and economy risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry finance and economy shocks into other systems?
• Which finance and economy capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The finance and economy-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their finance and economy content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   ENE → FOO → HLT

   Fuel and fertiliser prices reach food prices and household budgets.

   Reported 2026 fertiliser and plastics prices¹; food price index²⁵

2. 02

   TRD → ENE → FIN

   A supply shock lifts inflation and policy rates and raises borrowing costs.

   Reported 2026 rate rises¹⁹; bond yields⁶

3. 03

   FIN → HLT

   A larger interest bill displaces health and education spending.

   Reported interest above health or education spending¹⁰; Senegal case³¹

4. 04

   AIC → FIN

   AI capital expenditure and valuations lift financial conditions and then amplify a reversal.

   Reported hyperscaler spending and valuations¹¹⁷

5. 05

   BIO → FIN

   Nature loss reduces productive capacity and raises sovereign interest costs.

   Scenario scenario across 23 countries³⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer’s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 26United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

In 2025, developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on USD 35 trillion of public debt, a median 8.1% of government revenue.

Implication

The interest bill is now large enough to compete with services. UNCTAD counts 51 developing countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, and 3.7 billion people living in them, 1.2 billion more than in 2010¹⁰. The pressure is also the product of supply: bilateral lenders have diverted assistance and private creditors have become more risk averse, so developing countries borrow more at home¹⁰.

What would move it

The next A World of Debt report, the 2026 Financing for Sustainable Development outcome and borrowing costs for emerging market sovereigns would each move this finding.

2.2Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001

   World output grew 3.5% in 2025 on the IMF basis and 2.9% on the World Bank basis; the two series differ in weights and vintage and both are shown.²⁷

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

   General government gross debt was 108.2% of GDP in advanced economies and 73.7% in emerging and developing economies in 2025; the World Bank dates the rise in emerging and developing economy debt from under 40% of GDP in 2010 to over 70%.²⁴⁷

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

   Developing countries held USD 35 trillion of public debt in 2025 and paid USD 995 billion in net interest, a median 8.1% of government revenue, nearly double the 2010 level.¹⁰

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004

   Non-bank financial institutions held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, up from 44% in 2021, and hedge fund leverage remained near record highs.¹¹⁷

5. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

   The US dollar held 56.7% of allocated official reserves in the second quarter of 2026, the euro 20.6% and the renminbi 2.1%.⁴

2.3AIC

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006

   The five largest hyperscalers are set to spend over USD 1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditure across 2025 and 2026, and greenfield digital infrastructure project values rose more than 80% in 2025.¹⁹

2.4Trade

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-007

   Global foreign direct investment rose 6% to USD 1.6 trillion in 2025, with flows to developed economies up 11% and to developing economies up 2%; least developed countries received USD 43 billion, 2.7% of the total.⁹

2.5Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   In 2023, 65% of Africa’s population lived in countries spending more on interest than on health or education, up from 24% in 2010, and UNCTAD counts 3.7 billion people worldwide in such countries.¹⁰

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, 5.8% above a year earlier, and the BIS reports prices of fertilisers up 50% and plastics up 30% after the Middle East conflict began.²⁵¹

2.7Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

   More than USD 14 trillion of gross foreign exchange obligations settled on an average day in April 2025; 36% settled through payment versus payment systems and about USD 1.4 trillion, 10%, settled gross bilaterally and stayed fully exposed to settlement risk.¹²

2.8Biodiversity

1. ScenarioEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   A partial ecosystem collapse scenario raises sovereign interest costs by up to USD 162 billion a year across 23 countries, because sovereign credit ratings do not yet incorporate nature-related risks.³⁰

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a repricing of sovereign bonds in which energy-driven inflation, an AI valuation correction and leveraged non-bank deleveraging coincide with thin fiscal space. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 47World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026, chapter 3 (government debt in emerging market and developing economies; full report PDF opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through finance and economy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries finance and economy risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on finance and economy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 23European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 28Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 29Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS05-FIN-001

   Sovereign bond repricing under high debt and non-bank leverage

   Driver

   high public debt, higher yields and leveraged non-bank intermediation¹⁶¹⁷

   Exposure

   advanced-economy bond markets and emerging market issuers with dollar debt

   Vulnerability

   liquidity that can vanish abruptly; thin fiscal space; funding that depends on repo¹

   Capacity

   central bank backstops; bank capital; resolution tools¹⁵¹⁷

   Cascade

   FIN → HLT, FOO, INF

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS05-FIN-002

   Debt service crowding out public services in developing countries

   Driver

   high borrowing costs and falling external finance¹⁰²⁷

   Exposure

   countries spending more on interest than on health or education¹⁰

   Vulnerability

   weak revenue mobilisation; dollar-denominated sovereign borrowing⁵⁶

   Capacity

   multilateral lending; debt management; safety nets²⁶

   Cascade

   FIN → HLT, FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS05-AIC-003

   AI investment boom reversing

   Driver

   competitive over-investment and uncertain payoffs¹

   Exposure

   large technology firms, their lenders and equity markets

   Vulnerability

   opaque financing; stretched valuations¹¹⁸

   Capacity

   bank and insurer capital; supervisory guidance¹⁴

   Cascade

   AIC → FIN → TRD

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS05-INF-004

   Settlement and operational failure in payment systems

   Driver

   cyber, outsourcing and settlement failures¹²²³

   Exposure

   foreign exchange settlement outside payment versus payment; USD 1.4 trillion a day settled gross¹²

   Vulnerability

   concentration in a few providers; fragmentation of payment rules²⁷

   Capacity

   payment versus payment systems; resilience rules²³

   Cascade

   INF → FIN → TRD

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for finance and economy at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 26United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Sound practices for the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): final report, October 2026 (publication page); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 23European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 28Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 29Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a repricing of sovereign risk that coincides with persistent inflation, an AI valuation correction and deleveraging by leveraged non-banks

Analogues

the 2022 to 2023 bond market stress and the 2026 yield rise¹⁶

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   ENE → FIN

   energy prices keep inflation above target and policy rates rise

   2026

2. 2

   FIN → FIN

   long-term yields rise; hedge funds deleverage in government bond markets

   2026

3. 3

   AIC → FIN

   an AI valuation correction tightens financial conditions further

   scenario

4. 4

   FIN → HLT

   the interest bill displaces health and education spending

   2023 · 2025

5. 5

   FIN → FOO

   currency weakness and input costs raise food prices in importers

   2026

6. 6

   FIN → INF

   funding stress strains settlement and market infrastructure

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01 would travel through Global Finance and Economy’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Finance and Economy 2026, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01 (2026); Global Finance and Economy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for finance and economy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 finance and economy readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• IN IMPLEMENTATION

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers finance and economy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s financial and economic system and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency flagships; central bank and regulator reports; peer-reviewed finance and health literature; statistics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 26United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 23European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 of the European Parliament and of the Council on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the legal-acts portal did not return the text. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 14POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Sound practices for the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): final report, October 2026 (publication page); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 24IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards developed by the International Sustainability Standards Board (information page; the individual standards were not opened). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements for Disclosure of Sustainability-related Financial Information and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures, June 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Sevilla Commitment, outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, Sevilla, 30 June to 3 July 2025, cited from the forum outcome [27]; the document itself was not opened. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 29Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 32Kolesar, R.J. and Spruk, R., Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence From Greece, Health Economics 35, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). John Wiley and Sons. Observation year 2020 (study period 2010 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks, American Economic Review, 2015, cited from memory; only a bibliographic record of the 2013 working paper version was checked. American Economic Association. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Battiston, S., Puliga, M., Kaushik, R., Tasca, P. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: Too central to fail? Financial networks, the FED and systemic risk, Scientific Reports 2, 2012, cited from memory; no figure is used. Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 5World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 3International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, April 2026 vintage (world aggregates), retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 11Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer’s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory; no figure is used. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Financial Action Task Force (ed.), The FATF Recommendations, current consolidated text; the publisher site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. FATF, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. F-01

   How would a repricing of sovereign bonds, with high inflation and leveraged non-bank deleveraging, travel into budgets, health spending and food prices at once?

   INI-GS05-SOV-01 · sovereign repricing test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

2. F-02

   Where does the interest bill displace health, education and resilience spending, and what would different borrowing costs change?

   INI-GS05-DEB-02 · debt service and public services; first output: interest-versus-services table by country group.

3. F-03

   Who holds sovereign debt in each large market, and how much of it depends on short-term funding?

   INI-GS05-NBF-03 · non-bank holdings and funding; first output: holder map for five bond markets.

4. F-04

   How much of AI capital expenditure is financed by debt, and where do electricity and equipment bottlenecks bind the return?

   INI-GS05-AIC-04 · AI investment financing; first output: financing-structure note.

5. F-05

   Which countries’ sovereign credit assessments omit nature-related and climate-related risk, and by how much?

   INI-GS05-NAT-05 · nature in sovereign credit; first output: sensitivity table beyond 23 countries.

6. F-06

   Which payment corridors and settlement systems lack contingency arrangements?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: corridor overlay.

7. F-07

   How do remittances, account access and disaster exposure interact for households?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. F-08

   Which finance capabilities have been tested in real stress, and which are only legislated?

   Finance capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 finance and economy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The finance and economy edition reads national economic chapters, regional market and balance-sheet evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National economic chapters

   finance and economy chapter of each national edition

   DRAFTED · further national baselines

2. 02

   Market and balance-sheet evidence

   sovereign bond markets, reserves and cross-border banking

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Finance and economy sector model

   the global finance and economy system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB · SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience · SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability · SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Finance and Economy Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the finance and economy candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS05-2027-01 · Sovereign repricing Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Finance and prices

Prices set by physical shocks reach finance through inflation, policy rates, import bills and fiscal relief. The 2026 Middle East conflict showed all four channels at once.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.2Finance and food

Food depends on credit, inputs and trade finance. Input prices and currency moves pass through to food prices, and weak currencies raise the cost of imports.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.3Finance and health

Public health budgets compete with interest. Evidence from debt statistics and from case studies shows how borrowing costs, austerity and external debt can reach health.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.4Finance and nature

Nature supplies the ecosystem services that underpin output and tax revenue. Sovereign credit assessments do not yet price their loss, and investment flows to sustainable sectors remain uneven.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.5Financial stability, payments and rules

Stability now depends on how banks, non-banks and payment systems interact. Leverage, settlement risk and the pace of rule adoption are the three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 32Kolesar, R.J. and Spruk, R., Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence From Greece, Health Economics 35, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). John Wiley and Sons. Observation year 2020 (study period 2010 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 31Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Finance and Economy Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS05-FINANCE · v0.1

Purpose

represent the global financial and economic system and its couplings to food, health, nature and the other core systems

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

47 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 finance and economy annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• IMF²: world aggregate for the debt ratio on one basis
• BIS¹: data tables behind the Annual Economic Report
• UNCTAD¹⁰: country data file for interest and revenue
• ECB¹⁹: inflation series after December 2025

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: net interest on public debt

Construct

interest paid on public debt less interest received, in current US dollars and as a share of government revenue

Unit

USD billion and share of revenue

Method

issuer compilation from national and international debt statistics

Source

UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026¹⁰

Uncertainty

national definitions of public debt and revenue differ

Known limits

does not show the maturity, currency or holder structure of the debt

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 11Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer’s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Trade Organization (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026; the page tried was not found and no figure from it is used. WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Development co-operation preliminary data on official development assistance in 2025; the OECD site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• FIN
• TRD
• SYS
• HLT
• FOO
• INF
• AIC
• BIO
• DAT
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: finance and economy across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Market card: advanced-economy sovereign bond markets

• sovereign
• repo
• non-bank
• cross-border

Systems in view

banks, hedge funds, funds, insurers, pension funds, central banks

Defining facts

non-bank share of holdings 44% in 2021 and 53% in 2025¹; hedge fund leverage near records¹⁷

Couplings

FIN → HLT budgets; FIN → INF funding; ENE → FIN rates

Capability evidence

central bank backstops and supervisory reviews¹⁷¹⁸

Gaps

holder detail by country; repo funding volumes

Agenda items

F-01 · F-03

B.5How countries appear in the finance and economy edition

Countries enter the finance and economy edition through the economy and finance chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.147 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
3. 3International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, April 2026 vintage (world aggregates), retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
4. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
5. 5World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
6. 6POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
8. 8World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
11. 11Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer’s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
12. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
14. 14POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Sound practices for the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): final report, October 2026 (publication page); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
15. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
17. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
19. 19European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
20. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
22. 22Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
24. 24IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards developed by the International Sustainability Standards Board (information page; the individual standards were not opened). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
27. 27United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E/FFDF/2026/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
28. 28Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
29. 29Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
31. 31Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32Kolesar, R.J. and Spruk, R., Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence From Greece, Health Economics 35, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). John Wiley and Sons. Observation year 2020 (study period 2010 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Development co-operation preliminary data on official development assistance in 2025; the OECD site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Trade Organization (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026; the page tried was not found and no figure from it is used. WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 of the European Parliament and of the Council on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the legal-acts portal did not return the text. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory; no figure is used. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Financial Action Task Force (ed.), The FATF Recommendations, current consolidated text; the publisher site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. FATF, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Sevilla Commitment, outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, Sevilla, 30 June to 3 July 2025, cited from the forum outcome [27]; the document itself was not opened. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks, American Economic Review, 2015, cited from memory; only a bibliographic record of the 2013 working paper version was checked. American Economic Association. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Battiston, S., Puliga, M., Kaushik, R., Tasca, P. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: Too central to fail? Financial networks, the FED and systemic risk, Scientific Reports 2, 2012, cited from memory; no figure is used. Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements for Disclosure of Sustainability-related Financial Information and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures, June 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026, chapter 3 (government debt in emerging market and developing economies; full report PDF opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version