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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the finance and economy baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Finance is where shocks are priced
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Finance
    3. 2.3 AIC
    4. 2.4 Trade
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Infrastructure
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Sovereign bond repricing under inflation and thin fiscal space
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

In 2025, developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on USD 35 trillion of public debt, a median 8.1% of government revenue.

Figure 2.1Interest paid and interest saved, developing countries (USD billion)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Net interest on public debt, 2025995
Annual saving at developed-country borrowing costs500

Source: UNCTAD, A World of Debt 202610.

Implication

The interest bill is now large enough to compete with services. UNCTAD counts 51 developing countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, and 3.7 billion people living in them, 1.2 billion more than in 201010. The pressure is also the product of supply: bilateral lenders have diverted assistance and private creditors have become more risk averse, so developing countries borrow more at home10.

What would move it

The next A World of Debt report, the 2026 Financing for Sustainable Development outcome and borrowing costs for emerging market sovereigns would each move this finding.

2.2Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001

    World output grew 3.5% in 2025 on the IMF basis and 2.9% on the World Bank basis; the two series differ in weights and vintage and both are shown.27

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

    General government gross debt was 108.2% of GDP in advanced economies and 73.7% in emerging and developing economies in 2025; the World Bank dates the rise in emerging and developing economy debt from under 40% of GDP in 2010 to over 70%.247

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

    Developing countries held USD 35 trillion of public debt in 2025 and paid USD 995 billion in net interest, a median 8.1% of government revenue, nearly double the 2010 level.10

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004

    Non-bank financial institutions held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, up from 44% in 2021, and hedge fund leverage remained near record highs.117

  5. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

    The US dollar held 56.7% of allocated official reserves in the second quarter of 2026, the euro 20.6% and the renminbi 2.1%.4

2.3AIC

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006

    The five largest hyperscalers are set to spend over USD 1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditure across 2025 and 2026, and greenfield digital infrastructure project values rose more than 80% in 2025.19

2.4Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-007

    Global foreign direct investment rose 6% to USD 1.6 trillion in 2025, with flows to developed economies up 11% and to developing economies up 2%; least developed countries received USD 43 billion, 2.7% of the total.9

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    In 2023, 65% of Africa’s population lived in countries spending more on interest than on health or education, up from 24% in 2010, and UNCTAD counts 3.7 billion people worldwide in such countries.10

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, 5.8% above a year earlier, and the BIS reports prices of fertilisers up 50% and plastics up 30% after the Middle East conflict began.251

2.7Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

    More than USD 14 trillion of gross foreign exchange obligations settled on an average day in April 2025; 36% settled through payment versus payment systems and about USD 1.4 trillion, 10%, settled gross bilaterally and stayed fully exposed to settlement risk.12

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ScenarioEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    A partial ecosystem collapse scenario raises sovereign interest costs by up to USD 162 billion a year across 23 countries, because sovereign credit ratings do not yet incorporate nature-related risks.30

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a repricing of sovereign bonds in which energy-driven inflation, an AI valuation correction and leveraged non-bank deleveraging coincide with thin fiscal space. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 10UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 47World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026, chapter 3 (government debt in emerging market and developing economies; full report PDF opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 25Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 30Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Global Finance and Economy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Financial and Economic System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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