Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the disaster and resilience baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Recorded deaths, people affected and losses were below the 2005 to 2024 average, with no mega-disaster.¹

   Was 2025 a bad year for disasters?Reported

2. Asia held 72.8% of recorded deaths; earthquakes, floods and storms made up most of them.¹

   Where did most deaths occur?Reported

3. 29.9 million movements in 2025, below 2024 and above the decade average.²

   Are people still being displaced?Reported

4. Mortality is nearly six times lower where systems are comprehensive; coverage is 60% of countries.³

   Do warnings work?Reported

5. About 49% of 2025 natural catastrophe losses were insured; cover is far lower in emerging economies.⁴

   Who pays for losses?Reported

6. Not on one basis. Europe alone had tens of thousands of heat deaths in 2022 and 2023.¹⁴¹⁵¹

   Is heat counted?Reported

7. Disruption costs low- and middle-income countries USD 391 billion to USD 647 billion a year.¹³

   Do lifelines matter?Reported

8. A major cyclone landfall where hospitals, power and communications fail together. SCN-GS08-CYC-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

Heat is the least counted hazard: Europe alone had an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 47,690 in 2023, yet the recorded disaster total for 2025 shows no extreme-temperature deaths.

WHO estimates about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year worldwide in 2000 to 2019, 45% of them in Asia and 36% in Europe⁸. Disaster databases record far fewer because heat deaths are often recorded under other causes and counted late. EM-DAT notes that reporting delays kept 2025 heat deaths out of its total, and cites a provisional study of 16,469 preventable heat deaths in European cities in summer 2025¹. Adaptation matters: Europe’s 2023 burden would have been 80% higher without adaptation since 2000¹⁵.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 11US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 6.0, near Asadabad, Afghanistan, 31 August 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is disaster and resilience risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry disaster and resilience shocks into other systems?
• Which disaster and resilience capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The disaster and resilience-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their disaster and resilience content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → INF → HLT

   A cyclone strips roofs and power; hospitals stop working and outbreaks follow.

   Reported 2025 Melissa in Jamaica⁶

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → HLT

   Floodwater contaminates supplies and spreads infection.

   Reported 2025 leptospirosis outbreak in Jamaica⁶

3. 03

   CLI → FOO

   Storms and dry spells destroy crops and herds.

   Reported 2025 Jamaica and Somalia⁶¹

4. 04

   CLI → HLT

   Extreme heat raises deaths among older people.

   Reported 2022 and 2023 in Europe¹⁴¹⁵

5. 05

   INF → FIN

   Lifeline outages and damage cut output and strain budgets.

   Estimated Lifelines analysis for low- and middle-income countries¹³

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

Heat is the least counted hazard: Europe alone had an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 47,690 in 2023, yet the recorded disaster total for 2025 shows no extreme-temperature deaths.

Implication

WHO estimates about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year worldwide in 2000 to 2019, 45% of them in Asia and 36% in Europe⁸. Disaster databases record far fewer because heat deaths are often recorded under other causes and counted late. EM-DAT notes that reporting delays kept 2025 heat deaths out of its total, and cites a provisional study of 16,469 preventable heat deaths in European cities in summer 2025¹. Adaptation matters: Europe’s 2023 burden would have been 80% higher without adaptation since 2000¹⁵.

What would move it

Revisions to the 2025 EM-DAT figures, national excess-mortality releases for summer 2026 and any WHO update of the global estimate would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   EM-DAT recorded 358 natural-hazard disasters in 2025 with 16,607 deaths, 110.2 million people affected and USD 169.7 billion in losses, below its 2005 to 2024 annual averages of 377 disasters, 57,429 deaths, 169.0 million affected and USD 215.0 billion.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010

   About 1.81 billion people (23% of the world) are directly exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood, 89% of them in low- and middle-income countries, and satellite records show the share of people exposed to floods rose 20 to 24% between 2000 and 2015.¹⁶¹⁷

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

   The year 2025 was the third-warmest on record at 1.47 °C above the 1850 to 1900 level in the ERA5 dataset, and 2023 to 2025 was the first three-year average above 1.5 °C; WMO reported a lower consolidated value in a summary that was not opened.²³²⁸

2.3Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-002

   Two earthquakes caused most earthquake deaths in 2025: a magnitude 7.7 event in Myanmar (3,820 deaths, USD 11 billion) and a magnitude 6.0 event in Afghanistan (2,200 deaths).¹⁹¹¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-004

   119 countries (60%) report a multi-hazard early warning system, small island developing States report 43%, and disaster mortality is nearly six times lower where systems are comprehensive.³²⁹

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-003

   Disasters triggered 29.9 million displacement movements in 2025, 35% fewer than in 2024 and 13% above the decade average; storms caused 17.9 million, and 13.6 million people were living in disaster displacement at year end.²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

   Heat is the least counted hazard: an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths occurred in Europe in summer 2022 and 47,690 in 2023, while EM-DAT records no extreme-temperature deaths for 2025 against a 2005 to 2024 annual average of 13,586.¹⁴¹⁵¹⁸

2.5Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

   Insured natural catastrophe losses were USD 107 billion in 2025 against economic losses of USD 220 billion; wildfire, convective storm and flood made up 92% of insured losses, and the Los Angeles wildfires cost about USD 40 billion insured.⁴

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

   Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane in October 2025; physical damage is put at USD 8.8 billion by the World Bank and IDB, USD 10 billion by EM-DAT and USD 12.2 billion in the National Hurricane Center report.⁵⁶¹

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

   If all natural disasters could be prevented, 26 million fewer people would be in extreme poverty, and well-being losses from disasters equal a USD 520 billion fall in consumption, 60% more than asset losses.¹²

2.6Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-008

   Infrastructure disruption costs households and firms in low- and middle-income countries between USD 391 billion and USD 647 billion a year, and about 27% of global road and rail assets are exposed to at least one hazard.¹³²⁰

2.7Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a major cyclone landfall in an island or delta setting where hospitals, power and communications fail together while the poorest households carry the largest well-being loss. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 11US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 6.0, near Asadabad, Afghanistan, 31 August 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through disaster and resilience, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries disaster and resilience risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on disaster and resilience, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS08-CLI-001

   Major tropical cyclone landfall in an island or delta setting

   Driver

   a category 5 landfall such as Melissa, with storm surge and slow rainfall⁶

   Exposure

   coastal settlements, hospitals, farms and roads; 1.81 billion people face a 1-in-100-year flood¹⁶

   Vulnerability

   wooden housing, limited insurance, few pre-emptive evacuations in some islands²⁶

   Capacity

   pre-emptive evacuation, forecasts, rapid damage estimates²⁵

   Cascade

   CLI → INF → HLT, FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS08-HLT-002

   Heat mortality that is under-counted

   Driver

   extreme heat in a warming climate²³

   Exposure

   older people, outdoor workers and dense cities; Europe and Asia carry most estimated deaths⁸

   Vulnerability

   late and uneven mortality reporting; cooling access

   Capacity

   heat action plans, adaptation that avoided 80% more deaths in Europe in 2023¹⁵

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS08-INF-003

   Lifeline failure that propagates through networks

   Driver

   hazards damaging power, transport, water and communications assets¹³²⁰

   Exposure

   27% of road and rail assets face at least one hazard²⁰

   Vulnerability

   poor maintenance and network interdependence¹³²¹

   Capacity

   resilient design with an extra cost of about 3% of investment¹³

   Cascade

   INF → HLT, FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS08-FIN-004

   Protection gap and uninsurability of exposed assets

   Driver

   exposure growth explains more than 80% of the rise in insured weather losses since 1970⁴

   Exposure

   wildfire, convective storm and flood losses growing in several regions⁴

   Vulnerability

   80% to 90% of losses in emerging economies usually uninsured⁴

   Capacity

   insurance, contingent finance and loss and damage funding⁴³²

   Cascade

   FIN → INF, HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for disaster and resilience at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 10US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia earthquake, 29 July 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience, Business continuity management systems, requirements. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Decision (EU) 2021/836 amending Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a category 5 cyclone makes landfall on an island or delta coast during a hot season, with storm surge and slow, heavy rain

Analogues

2025 Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica⁵⁶; 2025 evacuations in Cuba²

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → INF

   wind and surge strip roofs, cut power and block roads

   2025

2. 2

   INF → HLT

   hospitals lose power or structure; care capacity falls

   2025

3. 3

   CLI → WAT

   floodwater contaminates supplies and drainage fails

   2025

4. 4

   WAT → HLT

   outbreaks follow, such as leptospirosis

   2025

5. 5

   CLI → FOO

   farmland and livestock are lost; food access falls

   2025

6. 6

   INF → FIN

   damage of tens of per cent of GDP strains budgets and cover

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01 would travel through Global Disaster and Resilience’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Disaster and Resilience 2026, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01 (2026); Global Disaster and Resilience 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for disaster and resilience. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 disaster and resilience readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
• PREPARATORY WORKING DRAFT (2026)

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers disaster and resilience assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about disaster risk and resilience worldwide and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency flagships; event and loss databases; peer-reviewed disaster and epidemiology literature; reinsurer statistics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; the legal database returned an empty page. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Decision (EU) 2021/836 amending Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union (NIS2), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience, Business continuity management systems, requirements. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22320:2018, Security and resilience, Emergency management, guidelines for incident management. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37123:2019, Sustainable cities and communities, Indicators for resilient cities. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 19Mora, C. et al., Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, Nature Climate Change 12, 869, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R.J. and Corfee-Morlot, J., Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change 3, 802 to 806, 2013, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 7WMO (ed.), WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (WMO-No. 1267, 2021); publication page and the library description of the updated dataset for 1970 to 2021 (nearly 12 000 disasters, USD 4.3 trillion, 2 million deaths) were opened, not the full atlas. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021 (data 1970 to 2021). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, Financing and Investing for our Future (total disaster cost of about USD 2.3 trillion a year including cascading and ecosystem costs; direct costs of USD 180 to 200 billion a year in 2001 to 2020), taken from search-result summaries and a republished summary on a third-party portal; the publisher pages refused retrieval. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and ISC (eds.), Hazard Information Profiles, supplement to the UNDRR-ISC Hazard Definition and Classification Review, 2021, cited from memory. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General, Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (report A/80/333, August 2025), identified from search results; the document service returned an empty page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRC (ed.), World Disasters Report 2025. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 26NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (data page; opened, no figures were retrieved from it). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet, 2025; the record was found without an abstract and no figure is used. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: research report on heat-related deaths in European cities in summer 2025 (provisional estimate of 16,469 preventable deaths), cited in the EM-DAT report [1]; the study itself was not opened and no figure rests on this entry alone. Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. DR-01

   How would a major cyclone landfall that disables hospitals, power and communications travel through health, food and finance at once?

   INI-GS08-CYC-01 · island cyclone and lifeline failure; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

2. DR-02

   Where do infrastructure assets sit in hazard zones, and which services fail first?

   INI-GS08-LFL-02 · lifeline exposure; first output: exposure register by region.

3. DR-03

   How many people die from heat each year, and how can the count be made comparable across countries?

   INI-GS08-HTD-03 · heat mortality on one basis; first output: method note and country coverage table.

4. DR-04

   Which disaster loss and damage data meet a common standard, and which do not?

   INI-GS08-LOS-04 · loss data quality; first output: data quality register.

5. DR-05

   Where is the protection gap widest, and what would close it?

   INI-GS08-PRO-05 · protection gap; first output: cover and finance overlay.

6. DR-06

   Which hazard corridors lack shared warning and contingency arrangements?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

7. DR-07

   How does anticipatory action change displacement and loss outcomes?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. DR-08

   Which disaster capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   Disaster capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 disaster portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The disaster edition reads national disaster chapters, regional hazard and warning evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global disaster chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National disaster chapters

   disaster risk chapter of each national edition

   DRAFTED · further national baselines

2. 02

   Hazard and warning evidence

   shared hazard corridors, coasts and fault systems

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Disaster sector model

   the global disaster system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB Global Systems · SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems · SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Disaster and Resilience Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the disaster and resilience candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS08-2027-01 · Island cyclone Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Disaster and water

Most disaster impact reaches people through floods, storm surge and dry spells. Flood exposure is large, concentrated in poorer countries and still rising.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.2Disaster and energy

Power is the lifeline that other lifelines depend on. Storms and quakes cut supply, and the loss then reaches hospitals, pumps and communications.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.3Disaster and food

Floods, storms and dry spells destroy crops, herds and the roads that carry food. The loss in income and supply outlasts the hazard.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.4Disaster and health

Disaster reaches health through heat, injury, failed hospitals and outbreaks. The least visible channel, heat, is also among the largest.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.5Disaster, nature and cascading risk

Hazards intensify with warming, compound with each other and cascade through connected systems. Nature is both a buffer and a casualty, and it is the unmeasured side of this ledger.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19Mora, C. et al., Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, Nature Climate Change 12, 869, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Disaster and Resilience Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS08-DISASTER · v0.1

Purpose

represent the global disaster system and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and biodiversity

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 disaster and resilience annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• EM-DAT¹: revised 2025 figures and event-level tables
• IDMC²: duration of disaster displacement
• UNDRR and WMO²⁹: country tables of the early warning report
• National Hurricane Center⁶: revised casualty and damage totals for Melissa

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: multi-hazard early warning coverage

Construct

share of countries that report having a multi-hazard early warning system, and the comprehensiveness of its capabilities

Unit

number and share of countries

Method

country self-reporting compiled by UNDRR and WMO

Source

UNDRR and WMO press release on the 2025 status report³

Uncertainty

self-reported; quality and last-mile reach vary

Known limits

counts systems, not people reached or lives saved

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: research report on heat-related deaths in European cities in summer 2025 (provisional estimate of 16,469 preventable deaths), cited in the EM-DAT report [1]; the study itself was not opened and no figure rests on this entry alone. Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, Financing and Investing for our Future (total disaster cost of about USD 2.3 trillion a year including cascading and ecosystem costs; direct costs of USD 180 to 200 billion a year in 2001 to 2020), taken from search-result summaries and a republished summary on a third-party portal; the publisher pages refused retrieval. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General, Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (report A/80/333, August 2025), identified from search results; the document service returned an empty page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 26NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (data page; opened, no figures were retrieved from it). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRC (ed.), World Disasters Report 2025. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• CLI
• HLT
• FIN
• GOV
• INF
• DAT
• WAT
• FOO
• ENE
• BIO

B.3Regional reading: disaster across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Hazard card: the Caribbean track of Hurricane Melissa

• cyclone
• surge
• island
• cross-border

Systems in view

housing, hospitals, farms, roads, power

Defining event

category 5 landfall in Jamaica on 28 October 2025⁶

Couplings

CLI → INF damage; INF → HLT hospital failure; CLI → FOO crop and herd loss

Capability evidence

pre-emptive evacuations in Cuba and a rapid damage estimate²⁵

Gaps

indirect deaths; the more detailed damage and loss assessment

Agenda items

DR-01 · DR-02

B.5How countries appear in the disaster and resilience edition

Countries enter the disaster edition through the disaster chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia earthquake, 29 July 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 6.0, near Asadabad, Afghanistan, 31 August 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
3. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
4. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
5. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
6. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
7. 7WMO (ed.), WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (WMO-No. 1267, 2021); publication page and the library description of the updated dataset for 1970 to 2021 (nearly 12 000 disasters, USD 4.3 trillion, 2 million deaths) were opened, not the full atlas. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021 (data 1970 to 2021). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
8. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4
10. 10US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia earthquake, 29 July 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
11. 11US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 6.0, near Asadabad, Afghanistan, 31 August 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
12. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
13. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19Mora, C. et al., Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, Nature Climate Change 12, 869, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (data page; opened, no figures were retrieved from it). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, Financing and Investing for our Future (total disaster cost of about USD 2.3 trillion a year including cascading and ecosystem costs; direct costs of USD 180 to 200 billion a year in 2001 to 2020), taken from search-result summaries and a republished summary on a third-party portal; the publisher pages refused retrieval. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General, Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (report A/80/333, August 2025), identified from search results; the document service returned an empty page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRC (ed.), World Disasters Report 2025. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet, 2025; the record was found without an abstract and no figure is used. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: research report on heat-related deaths in European cities in summer 2025 (provisional estimate of 16,469 preventable deaths), cited in the EM-DAT report [1]; the study itself was not opened and no figure rests on this entry alone. Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; the legal database returned an empty page. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Decision (EU) 2021/836 amending Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union (NIS2), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience, Business continuity management systems, requirements. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22320:2018, Security and resilience, Emergency management, guidelines for incident management. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37123:2019, Sustainable cities and communities, Indicators for resilient cities. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R.J. and Corfee-Morlot, J., Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change 3, 802 to 806, 2013, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and ISC (eds.), Hazard Information Profiles, supplement to the UNDRR-ISC Hazard Definition and Classification Review, 2021, cited from memory. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version