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Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Disaster is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a category 5 cyclone makes landfall on an island or delta coast during a hot season, with storm surge and slow, heavy rain
Analogues
2025 Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica56; 2025 evacuations in Cuba2
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → INF

    wind and surge strip roofs, cut power and block roads

    2025

  2. 2

    INF → HLT

    hospitals lose power or structure; care capacity falls

    2025

  3. 3

    CLI → WAT

    floodwater contaminates supplies and drainage fails

    2025

  4. 4

    WAT → HLT

    outbreaks follow, such as leptospirosis

    2025

  5. 5

    CLI → FOO

    farmland and livestock are lost; food access falls

    2025

  6. 6

    INF → FIN

    damage of tens of per cent of GDP strains budgets and cover

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01 would travel through Global Disaster and Resilience’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to infrastructureWind and surge strip roofs, cut power and block roads. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-08, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to healthHospitals lose power or structure; care capacity falls. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-08, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01, step 2
03 Climate to waterFloodwater contaminates supplies and drainage fails. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-08, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01, step 3
04 Water to healthOutbreaks follow, such as leptospirosis. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-08, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01, step 4
05 Climate to foodFarmland and livestock are lost; food access falls. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-08, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01, step 5
06 Infrastructure to financeDamage of tens of per cent of GDP strains budgets and cover. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-08, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Disaster and Resilience 2026, scenario SCN-GS08-CYC-01 (2026); Global Disaster and Resilience 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Disaster and Resilience.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines10 / 15 relations

Context

Coastal storm surge

Mangroves and dunes absorb the surge; where they are gone, ports, substations and water intakes take it.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
5 of 6
Relations
10 of 15
Coupling
0.64 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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