Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

13 min read0 figures13 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Recorded disaster deaths in 2025 against the 2005 to 2024 annual average	16,607 ÷ 57,429	≈29%
(2)	Share of 2025 earthquake deaths in the Myanmar and Afghanistan events	(3,820 + 2,200) ÷ 6,353	≈95%
(3)	Difference between Swiss Re and EM-DAT 2025 economic losses (different methods)	220 − 169.7	≈USD 50 billion
(4)	Spread of the three Melissa damage estimates for Jamaica	12.2 − 8.8	USD 3.4 billion

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Disaster and Resilience Sector Model v0

Model ID: MDL-GS08-DISASTER · v0.1
Purpose: represent the global disaster system and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and biodiversity
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

3strong

documented within one season

6moderate

documented, buffered

11weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 disaster and resilience annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Disaster and Resilience Sector Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Disaster burden and averages	2025	reference date March 2026	annual	next EM-DAT annual report
Displacement	2025	May 2026	annual	next IDMC report
Early warning coverage	2025	November 2025	annual	next status report
Insured and economic losses	2025	March 2026	annual	next sigma report
Melissa damage in Jamaica	2025	November 2025 and March 2026	per event	detailed damage and loss assessment
Heat mortality in Europe	2022 and 2023	2023 and 2024	annual	later summers not bound
Flood exposure	2000 to 2018	2021 and 2022	one-off	later updates not bound
Lifeline disruption cost	2019	2019	one-off	not scheduled
Global temperature	2025	early 2026	annual	monthly bulletins
Heat and health estimates	2000 to 2019	July 2026 page	periodic	next WHO update

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Event burden	GOOD	revisions and heat counts
Displacement	GOOD	duration and return
Early warning	PARTIAL	country quality and last-mile reach
Losses and cover	PARTIAL	protection gap on one basis
Heat and health	THIN	deaths on one basis
Lifelines	PARTIAL	performance in real events
Cities	THIN	urban exposure and loss series
Resilience	PARTIAL	tested capabilities beyond warning

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Heat-related deaths worldwide in 2025, on one basis	national mortality statistics; WHO; EM-DAT¹⁸	EM-DAT records no extreme-temperature deaths for 2025 because of reporting delays; the provisional city study³⁶ was not opened
Primary document behind the USD 2.3 trillion annual cost of disasters	UNDRR Global Assessment Report 2025²⁷	the publisher’s pages refused retrieval; only summaries were read
Country progress against the Sendai Framework targets	Sendai Framework Monitor; Secretary-General report³⁰	the monitor and the report were not retrieved
Disaster mortality per 100,000 against the 2005 to 2015 baseline (Target A)	Sendai Framework Monitor with population data	not retrieved; not computed in this edition
Consolidated 2025 global temperature from WMO	WMO State of the Global Climate 2025²⁸	the report was not opened; the ERA5 value from Copernicus is used instead
Country tables of the multi-hazard early warning report	UNDRR and WMO full report²⁹	only the press release was opened
United States billion-dollar disaster series for 2025	NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information²⁶	the data page was opened but carried no figures; series status not confirmed
Damage to hospitals and schools on a common basis	Sendai Framework Monitor; ministries of health and education	not published on a common basis
Deaths from indirect causes after major events	national health authorities	the National Hurricane Center report states the breakdown for Melissa is not known⁶
Global agricultural loss from disasters	FAO report on the impact of disasters on agriculture³¹	the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report; not opened
Pledges and first allocations of the loss and damage fund	Board documents of the fund³²	only search summaries were read; counts of requests conflict between summaries
Protection gap on one basis	Swiss Re Institute sigma and its resilience index⁴	only the sigma press release was opened; the index measure was not
Funding for anticipatory action worldwide	OCHA Global Humanitarian Overview³⁴; IFRC³³	documents not opened
Catastrophe risk finance instruments by country	ministries of finance; World Bank	not consolidated
Cascading failure incidents on a common basis	infrastructure operators and authorities	no common incident database found

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by CRED from the Emergency Events Database, reference date 17 March 2026. Annual. Role: binds CLI-001, GOV-002 and the hazard tiles. The report states that 2025 figures are still being revised.

EVD-GS08-001

EM-DAT annual report, Disasters in numbers 2025¹

Compiled by IDMC from government, agency and media sources for 2025. Annual. Role: binds HLT-003 and the evacuation analogues.

EVD-GS08-002

IDMC Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026²

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-GS08-001	EVD-GS08-002
Completeness	natural hazards only; biological hazards excluded; heat and drought deaths under-reported	140 countries and territories for disasters; pre-emptive evacuations incomplete
Timeliness	about 2.5 months after the year	about 4.5 months after the year
Revision	figures are provisional and may be revised	movements and stocks are revised as data arrive
Method transparency	definitions and thresholds published	methodology published
External validation	compared with source agencies	compared with national and agency data

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

EM-DAT¹: revised 2025 figures and event-level tables
IDMC²: duration of disaster displacement
UNDRR and WMO²⁹: country tables of the early warning report
National Hurricane Center⁶: revised casualty and damage totals for Melissa

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	disaster and resilience, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
CRED	Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
EM-DAT	Emergency Events Database
GRADE	Global Rapid Damage Estimation
IDB	Inter-American Development Bank
IDMC	Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
MHEWS	multi-hazard early warning systems
NHC	National Hurricane Center
SCS	severe convective storms
SIDS	small island developing States
UNDRR	United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
USGS	United States Geological Survey
WMO	World Meteorological Organization

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-GS08-CYC-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Hazard corridor notes	cards for the major storm tracks, fault systems and river and delta basins	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: multi-hazard early warning coverage

Construct: share of countries that report having a multi-hazard early warning system, and the comprehensiveness of its capabilities
Unit: number and share of countries
Method: country self-reporting compiled by UNDRR and WMO
Source: UNDRR and WMO press release on the 2025 status report³
Uncertainty: self-reported; quality and last-mile reach vary
Known limits: counts systems, not people reached or lives saved

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: research report on heat-related deaths in European cities in summer 2025 (provisional estimate of 16,469 preventable deaths), cited in the EM-DAT report [1]; the study itself was not opened and no figure rests on this entry alone. Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, Financing and Investing for our Future (total disaster cost of about USD 2.3 trillion a year including cascading and ecosystem costs; direct costs of USD 180 to 200 billion a year in 2001 to 2020), taken from search-result summaries and a republished summary on a third-party portal; the publisher pages refused retrieval. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General, Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (report A/80/333, August 2025), identified from search results; the document service returned an empty page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (data page; opened, no figures were retrieved from it). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRC (ed.), World Disasters Report 2025. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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