References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Disaster is where the systems meet
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.145 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
- 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
- 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 7WMO (ed.), WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (WMO-No. 1267, 2021); publication page and the library description of the updated dataset for 1970 to 2021 (nearly 12 000 disasters, USD 4.3 trillion, 2 million deaths) were opened, not the full atlas. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021 (data 1970 to 2021). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4
- 10US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia earthquake, 29 July 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
- 11US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 6.0, near Asadabad, Afghanistan, 31 August 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
- 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 19Mora, C. et al., Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, Nature Climate Change 12, 869, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 26NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (data page; opened, no figures were retrieved from it). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, Financing and Investing for our Future (total disaster cost of about USD 2.3 trillion a year including cascading and ecosystem costs; direct costs of USD 180 to 200 billion a year in 2001 to 2020), taken from search-result summaries and a republished summary on a third-party portal; the publisher pages refused retrieval. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General, Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (report A/80/333, August 2025), identified from search results; the document service returned an empty page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRC (ed.), World Disasters Report 2025. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet, 2025; the record was found without an abstract and no figure is used. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: research report on heat-related deaths in European cities in summer 2025 (provisional estimate of 16,469 preventable deaths), cited in the EM-DAT report [1]; the study itself was not opened and no figure rests on this entry alone. Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; the legal database returned an empty page. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Decision (EU) 2021/836 amending Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union (NIS2), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience, Business continuity management systems, requirements. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22320:2018, Security and resilience, Emergency management, guidelines for incident management. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37123:2019, Sustainable cities and communities, Indicators for resilient cities. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R.J. and Corfee-Morlot, J., Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change 3, 802 to 806, 2013, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and ISC (eds.), Hazard Information Profiles, supplement to the UNDRR-ISC Hazard Definition and Classification Review, 2021, cited from memory. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Global Disaster and Resilience Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Global Sector Series GS-08
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 disaster and resilience edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-08 | NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-SEC-GS-08-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for Global Disaster and Resilience; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- GS-08 edition Reports Global Disaster and Resilience 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-08 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |