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Nature is the layer under every other system

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures2 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Nature is the layer under every other system
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, fire-prone season with land conversion and mining expansion
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is biodiversity risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry biodiversity shocks into other systems?
  • Which biodiversity capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five coupling chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Biodiversity is usually reported as a conservation topic: species lists, protected areas, forests. The 2026 evidence reads it as the layer under food, freshwater, health and the economy. IPBES finds that over half of global gross domestic product (USD 58 trillion in 2023) is generated in sectors moderately to highly dependent on nature8, and that all businesses depend directly or indirectly on biodiversity9.

The trend is down on most indicators. Indicators assessed by the Nexus assessment show biodiversity declines of 2 to 6% per decade over the past 30 to 50 years8. The Dasgupta Review estimated that between 1992 and 2014 global produced capital per head doubled while the value of natural capital per head fell by nearly 40%20. None of the 20 Aichi targets was fully achieved by 202021.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework set 23 targets for 20304. The first global review finds action under all 23 targets and no target with a fully positive picture, with indicator trends more often negative than positive1. Parties reported USD 32.7 billion of biodiversity finance in 20232, while flows with direct negative impacts on nature were estimated at USD 7.3 trillion9.

Risks compound. Land conversion remains the most widespread driver of change on land7, mining for energy materials reaches protected sites28, and heat is pushing reefs and forests toward thresholds2232. Progress is uneven: fewer than half of reporting Parties considered their national targets on track for any global target1.

Figure 1.1How large are the flows against nature compared with those for it? Financial flows, 2023 (USD billion)

Harmful flows are about 33 times the flows directed to conservation and sustainable use. Parties reported USD 32.7 billion of biodiversity finance from all sources for 2023 on a different basis, so the two series do not add29.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Private flows with direct negative impacts4900
Environmentally harmful public subsidies2400
Directed to conservation and sustainable use220

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2023.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

7.3USD trillion

flows with direct negative impacts, 20239

220USD billion

flows to conservation and sustainable use, 20239

200USD billion

Framework goal a year by 2030, all sources4

700USD billion

finance gap a year cited in the global report2

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The biodiversity-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their biodiversity content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·MODERATE
hydropower · cooling flows		STRONG
irrigation · fisheries		MODERATE
supply and disease vectors		STRONG
flows · wetland area
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·MODERATE
fuel · fertiliser		MODERATE
cooking fuel · clinics		MODERATE
mining · dams · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · runoff		WEAK
bioenergy		·MODERATE
nutrition · pesticides		STRONG
land conversion · overharvest
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		WEAK
labour		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversityMODERATE
catchments · filtration		WEAK
biomass · hydrology		STRONG
pollination · soils · pests		MODERATE
zoonoses · medicines		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    FOO → BIO → FOO

    Land conversion for food erodes pollination, soils and pest control, which feed back into yields.

    Reported pollinator-dependent crops 35% of volume10

  2. 02

    MIN → BIO

    Mining for energy materials overlaps protected sites and wilderness.

    Reported mining overlap study28

  3. 03

    CLI → BIO

    Heat stress bleaches reefs and raises extinction risk on land.

    Reported 2023 to 2025 bleaching event18; warming levels32

  4. 04

    FIN → BIO

    Flows with negative impacts exceed flows to nature by about 33 times.

    Reported IPBES estimates89

  5. 05

    BIO → HLT

    Land-use change and species-rich forests raise zoonotic emergence risk.

    Inferred hotspot analysis29

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversion · overharvestBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils · pests
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20Dasgupta, P., The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review, Full Report, HM Treasury, London, 2021. Observation year 2014 (wealth series 1992 to 2014). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Biodiversity Outlook 5, Montreal, 2020. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Nature is the layer under every other system. In Global Biodiversity Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Biodiversity and Ecosystems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Biodiversity and Ecosystems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Biodiversity and its partners

Biodiversity gives pollination and soils to food (0.6), watershed regulation to water (0.5) and zoonotic spillover and medicines to health (0.4).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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