Global Biodiversity Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Biodiversity and Ecosystems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the biodiversity baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. The Red List counts 49,505 threatened species of 175,909 assessed; IPBES estimated around 1 million of 8 million.¹²⁷

   How many species are at risk?Reported

2. About 18.4% of terrestrial and inland waters, 23.2% of marine areas under national jurisdiction and 10% of the global ocean were protected or conserved in 2025.²

   How much land and sea is protected?Reported

3. Gross deforestation is lower than in 1990 to 2000 but still 10.9 million hectares a year.¹⁵

   Is forest loss falling?Reported

4. About 84% of reef area was exposed to bleaching-level heat stress in 2023 to 2025.¹⁸¹⁹

   What is happening to reefs?Reported

5. USD 7.3 trillion in flows with negative impacts against about USD 220 billion for nature.⁹

   Where does the money go?Reported

6. No. Fewer than half of reporting Parties report national targets on track for any global target.¹

   Is the Framework on track?Reported

7. Most mining areas target materials needed for renewable energy, and some overlap protected sites.²⁸

   Do minerals add pressure?Reported

8. Heat, fire and land conversion at the same time. SCN-GS11-HEAT-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

In 2023, global public and private flows with direct negative impacts on nature were estimated at USD 7.3 trillion, against about USD 220 billion directed to conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity.

The two IPBES assessments agree on the order of magnitude and differ in the split and the year. Harmful flows are about 33 times the flows directed to nature, so closing the Framework finance gap of USD 700 billion a year depends on redirecting existing flows as much as on new money²⁹. Fewer than 1% of publicly reporting companies mention their impacts on biodiversity in their reports⁹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, draft decision CBD/COP/17/L.15, Global review of collective progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, submitted by the Chair of Working Group I, Yerevan, 29 October 2026 (draft text, not the adopted decision). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is biodiversity risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry biodiversity shocks into other systems?
• Which biodiversity capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The biodiversity-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their biodiversity content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   FOO → BIO → FOO

   Land conversion for food erodes pollination, soils and pest control, which feed back into yields.

   Reported pollinator-dependent crops 35% of volume¹⁰

2. 02

   MIN → BIO

   Mining for energy materials overlaps protected sites and wilderness.

   Reported mining overlap study²⁸

3. 03

   CLI → BIO

   Heat stress bleaches reefs and raises extinction risk on land.

   Reported 2023 to 2025 bleaching event¹⁸; warming levels³²

4. 04

   FIN → BIO

   Flows with negative impacts exceed flows to nature by about 33 times.

   Reported IPBES estimates⁸⁹

5. 05

   BIO → HLT

   Land-use change and species-rich forests raise zoonotic emergence risk.

   Inferred hotspot analysis²⁹

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20Dasgupta, P., The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review, Full Report, HM Treasury, London, 2021. Observation year 2014 (wealth series 1992 to 2014). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Biodiversity Outlook 5, Montreal, 2020. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

In 2023, global public and private flows with direct negative impacts on nature were estimated at USD 7.3 trillion, against about USD 220 billion directed to conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity.

Implication

The two IPBES assessments agree on the order of magnitude and differ in the split and the year. Harmful flows are about 33 times the flows directed to nature, so closing the Framework finance gap of USD 700 billion a year depends on redirecting existing flows as much as on new money²⁹. Fewer than 1% of publicly reporting companies mention their impacts on biodiversity in their reports⁹.

What would move it

Complete 2024 and 2025 finance reports, reform of harmful incentives and uptake of nature-related disclosure would each move this finding.

2.2Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-001

   The IUCN Red List update of July 2026 covers 175,909 species, of which 49,505 are threatened with extinction.¹²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-002

   The IPBES Global Assessment estimated that around 1 million of 8 million animal and plant species face extinction, that 75% of the land surface is significantly altered, that 66% of the ocean area faced increasing cumulative impacts by 2014 and that over 85% of wetland area has been lost.⁷

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-003

   Peer-reviewed work places the current extinction rate above 100 extinctions per million species-years against a planetary boundary below 10, and finds the vertebrate loss rate of the last century up to 100 times the background rate.²³²⁶

4. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-005

   Forests cover 4.14 billion hectares (32% of land); gross deforestation was 10.9 million hectares a year in 2015 to 2025 against 17.6 million in 1990 to 2000, and tropical primary forest loss was 4.3 million hectares in 2025, down 36% from the record of 2024 but 46% above a decade ago.¹⁵¹⁶¹⁷

2.3Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

   Bleaching-level heat stress affected about 84% of the world’s coral reef area between early 2023 and mid-2025, in all three reef ocean basins, against 68.2% in 2014 to 2017, and the Global Tipping Points Report finds warm-water coral reefs crossing their thermal tipping point at 1.4 °C of warming.¹⁸¹⁹²²

2.4Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

   Global public and private flows with direct negative impacts on nature were estimated at USD 7.3 trillion in 2023, against about USD 220 billion directed to conservation and sustainable use.⁹⁸

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

   Parties reported USD 32.7 billion of biodiversity finance from international public, domestic public and private sources in 2023, and the 2025 milestone of USD 20 billion a year of international finance was likely not met.²¹

2.5Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

   By the time of the global report 162 Parties (83%) had national targets aligned with the Framework, fewer than half of reporting Parties considered their national targets on track for any global target.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

   The CBD global report records protected and conserved areas covering 18.4% of terrestrial and inland waters and 23.2% of marine areas under national jurisdiction in 2025, and 10% of the global ocean, against a target of at least 30% of each by 2030.²⁴

2.6Minerals

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010

   Mining potentially influences 50 million square kilometres of land, with 8% coinciding with Protected Areas, 7% with Key Biodiversity Areas and 16% with remaining wilderness, and 82% of mining areas target materials needed for renewable energy production.²⁸

2.7Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-011

   Crops that depend on animal pollination contribute 35% of global crop production volume, and 5 to 8% of current global crop production, worth USD 235 billion to USD 577 billion a year (2015 dollars), is directly attributable to animal pollination.¹⁰

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, fire-prone season that coincides with land conversion and mining expansion in biodiversity-rich regions. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 23Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (open-access full text read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 26Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P.R., Barnosky, A.D., García, A., Pringle, R.M. and Palmer, T.M., Accelerated modern human-induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction, Science Advances 1(5), e1400253, 2015 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through biodiversity, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries biodiversity risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on biodiversity, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 6Steering Committee of the Multilateral Mechanism for the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits from the Use of Digital Sequence Information on Genetic Resources, including the Cali Fund, Report, MMDSI/SC/4/3 and CBD/COP/17/6/Add.1, 15 September 2026 (contributions as at 15 September 2026). Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 24Díaz, S. et al., Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change, Science 366(6471), eaax3100, 2019 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-BIO-001

   Land conversion in biodiversity-rich regions

   Driver

   agricultural expansion and infrastructure as the most widespread land-use change⁷

   Exposure

   tropical forests, wetland area and grasslands

   Vulnerability

   thin enforcement; fire used to clear land¹⁶

   Capacity

   protected areas; supply-chain rules; restoration targets³³³⁴

   Cascade

   BIO → FOO, HLT, CLI

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-CLI-002

   Heat stress on reefs and forests

   Driver

   warming toward and above 1.5 °C²²³²

   Exposure

   warm-water coral reefs; the Amazon; ecosystems at tipping risk

   Vulnerability

   repeated heat events with short recovery times

   Capacity

   local stressor reduction; fire management; refuges²²

   Cascade

   CLI → BIO → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-FIN-003

   Finance misaligned with nature

   Driver

   subsidies and investment flows with direct negative impacts⁹

   Exposure

   sectors moderately to highly dependent on nature⁸

   Vulnerability

   low disclosure; fewer than 1% of reporting companies mention impacts⁹

   Capacity

   subsidy reform; disclosure frameworks; public finance¹

   Cascade

   FIN → BIO → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-MIN-004

   Mining and deep-sea extraction overlap with high-value sites

   Driver

   demand for materials for renewable energy production²⁸

   Exposure

   protected areas, Key Biodiversity Areas, vent ecosystems¹²²⁸

   Vulnerability

   limited strategic planning; contracts across many jurisdictions¹²

   Capacity

   strategic siting; marine protected areas where mining is not permitted¹²

   Cascade

   MIN → BIO, ENE

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for biodiversity at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 14United Nations, Treaty Collection, Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page; entry into force 17 January 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 30Pereira, H.M. et al., Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050, Science 384(6694), 458 to 465, 2024 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 31Leclère, D. et al., Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy, Nature 585, 551 to 556, 2020 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS11-HEAT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a hot season with high fire risk in a biodiversity-rich region while land conversion and mining expansion continue

Analogues

2024 record tropical primary forest loss; 2023 to 2025 bleaching event¹⁶¹⁸

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → BIO

   heat and dry conditions raise fire risk in forests and peatlands

   2024

2. 2

   FOO → BIO

   fire used to clear land spreads beyond intended areas

   2024 · 2025

3. 3

   MIN → BIO

   new mining access roads open intact areas

   mining overlap²⁸

4. 4

   CLI → BIO

   reef bleaching and forest dieback reduce habitat

   2023 to 2025

5. 5

   BIO → FOO

   pollinator and pest-control losses reach crop yields

   ¹⁰

6. 6

   BIO → HLT

   smoke, zoonotic emergence risk and loss of livelihoods

   ²⁹

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS11-HEAT-01 would travel through Global Biodiversity and Ecosystems’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Biodiversity 2026, scenario SCN-GS11-HEAT-01 (2026); Global Biodiversity 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for biodiversity. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 biodiversity readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers biodiversity assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s biodiversity and ecosystems and its couplings?

Sources searched

assessment reports; convention documents; peer-reviewed literature; statistics and open data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14United Nations, Treaty Collection, Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page; entry into force 17 January 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 of the European Parliament and of the Council on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024; the Official Journal page was not retrievable and the content is taken from the opened Commission policy page [33]. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, as amended; the Official Journal page was not retrievable and the application dates are taken from the opened Commission policy page [34]. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, September 2023; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. TNFD, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, Washington, 1973, cited from memory; no figure is used. CITES Secretariat, Geneva. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 6Steering Committee of the Multilateral Mechanism for the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits from the Use of Digital Sequence Information on Genetic Resources, including the Cali Fund, Report, MMDSI/SC/4/3 and CBD/COP/17/6/Add.1, 15 September 2026 (contributions as at 15 September 2026). Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, draft decision CBD/COP/17/L.15, Global review of collective progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, submitted by the Chair of Working Group I, Yerevan, 29 October 2026 (draft text, not the adopted decision). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24Díaz, S. et al., Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change, Science 366(6471), eaax3100, 2019 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 25Cardinale, B.J. et al., Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity, Nature 486, 59 to 67, 2012 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 26Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P.R., Barnosky, A.D., García, A., Pringle, R.M. and Palmer, T.M., Accelerated modern human-induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction, Science Advances 1(5), e1400253, 2015 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 27Newbold, T. et al., Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment, Science 353(6296), 288 to 291, 2016 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 23Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (open-access full text read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 30Pereira, H.M. et al., Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050, Science 384(6694), 458 to 465, 2024 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 31Leclère, D. et al., Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy, Nature 585, 551 to 556, 2020 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 11IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control, Bonn, 2023. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (cost estimate; species records to 2019). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 21Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Biodiversity Outlook 5, Montreal, 2020. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Protected Planet: global coverage of protected areas and OECMs (statistics page, updated November 2026). UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: WWF and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril, Gland and London, 2024; the publisher pages returned an access error, and the headline of a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations from 1970 to 2020 was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. WWF, Gland. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Global Wetland Outlook 2025, Gland, 2025; the publisher page returned an access error and no figure is used. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN DESA Statistics Division, The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 15 storylines (Red List Index); the page was not located and no figure is used. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024, Rome, 2024; only the publication listing was reached and no figure is used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2772 supplementing Directive 2013/34/EU with sustainability reporting standards, including ESRS E4 on biodiversity and ecosystems, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; later amendments were not checked and no figure or status claim is made. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, Scaling Up Biodiversity-Positive Incentives: Delivering on Target 18 of the Global Biodiversity Framework, OECD Publishing, Paris, September 2025; the publisher pages returned an access error and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP, State of Finance for Nature 2023: The Big Nature Turnaround, Nairobi, 2023; the report pages returned an access error, and the estimate of nearly USD 7 trillion a year in nature-negative flows against about USD 200 billion for nature-based solutions was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. UN Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44. 20Dasgupta, P., The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review, Full Report, HM Treasury, London, 2021. Observation year 2014 (wealth series 1992 to 2014). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilisation, 2010, cited from memory; no figure is used. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Economic Forum, The Future of Nature and Business, Geneva, 2020; the file could not be retrieved and no figure is used. World Economic Forum, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. B-01

   How would a hot, fire-prone season that coincides with land conversion and mining expansion travel through habitats, food and health at once?

   INI-GS11-HAB-01 · compound season test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

2. B-02

   Where do finance gaps and harmful flows leave national targets without means of implementation?

   INI-GS11-FIN-02 · finance and harmful flows; first output: tracking table by region.

3. B-03

   Where do mining areas for renewable energy materials overlap protected and high-value sites, and how is siting decided?

   INI-GS11-MIN-03 · mining and protected sites; first output: overlap map with permit status.

4. B-04

   How do reef bleaching and heat stress translate into mortality, and where are refuges?

   INI-GS11-REF-04 · reef heat exposure and outcomes; first output: exposure and outcome table.

5. B-05

   Which headline indicators of the Framework can be reported on a common basis, and which cannot?

   INI-GS11-DAT-05 · indicator coverage; first output: indicator coverage register.

6. B-06

   Which shared habitats lack contingency arrangements for fire, flood or pest outbreak?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

7. B-07

   How do invasive alien species and land conversion interact on islands?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. B-08

   Which biodiversity capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?

   Biodiversity capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 biodiversity portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The biodiversity edition reads national biodiversity chapters, regional habitat and species evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global biodiversity chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National biodiversity chapters

   nature and ecosystem chapter of each national edition

   DRAFTED · further national baselines

2. 02

   Habitat and species evidence

   shared forests, reefs, rivers and ocean areas

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Biodiversity sector model

   the living layer of the system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB · SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk · SR-12 Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Biodiversity Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the biodiversity candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS11-2027-01 · Compound season Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Biodiversity and freshwater

Freshwater systems show some of the steepest declines. Wetland area, river flows and freshwater species are tied to drainage, extraction and heat, and in turn support filtration, fisheries and flood buffering.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.2Biodiversity and food

Food depends on pollinators, soils and pest control, and food production is also the largest driver of land conversion. The link runs in both directions.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.3Biodiversity and health

Nature supports nutrition, medicine and disease regulation. Land-use change at forest edges is linked to higher zoonotic emergence risk, and nature loss touches the health of the most exposed people first.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.4Biodiversity and energy

Energy transitions need minerals, land and river flows. Mining for energy materials overlaps protected sites, and extraction reaches the deep sea. Nature is the side of the energy ledger that is still least measured.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.5Biodiversity, climate and extremes

Heat, fire and extreme events now act on habitats at global scale. Reefs, forests and drylands show the first thresholds, and recovery times are shorter than the intervals between events.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control, Bonn, 2023. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (cost estimate; species records to 2019). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Biodiversity Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS11-BIODIVERSITY · v0.1

Purpose

represent the living layer of the global system and its couplings to water, food, health and energy

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 biodiversity annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• IUCN¹²: totals by taxonomic group
• FAO¹⁵: country detail behind forest area
• CBD global report²: indicator tables by target
• NOAA¹⁸: regional bleaching summaries

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: protected and conserved area coverage

Construct

share of land or ocean area within protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures

Unit

share of area

Method

compilation of national submissions in a world database, updated monthly

Source

CBD global report, 2025 values²; Protected Planet page of November 2026 is post-close, context only¹³

Uncertainty

depends on submissions and boundary data; scope differs between reports

Known limits

coverage does not measure management effectiveness or ecological condition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: WWF and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril, Gland and London, 2024; the publisher pages returned an access error, and the headline of a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations from 1970 to 2020 was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. WWF, Gland. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IUCN, The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, summary statistics tables (version 2026-1); the tables returned an access error, and only the totals in the opened press release [12] are used. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN DESA Statistics Division, The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 15 storylines (Red List Index); the page was not located and no figure is used. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, draft decision CBD/COP/17/L.15, Global review of collective progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, submitted by the Chair of Working Group I, Yerevan, 29 October 2026 (draft text, not the adopted decision). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, Scaling Up Biodiversity-Positive Incentives: Delivering on Target 18 of the Global Biodiversity Framework, OECD Publishing, Paris, September 2025; the publisher pages returned an access error and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP, State of Finance for Nature 2023: The Big Nature Turnaround, Nairobi, 2023; the report pages returned an access error, and the estimate of nearly USD 7 trillion a year in nature-negative flows against about USD 200 billion for nature-based solutions was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. UN Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, September 2023; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. TNFD, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2772 supplementing Directive 2013/34/EU with sustainability reporting standards, including ESRS E4 on biodiversity and ecosystems, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; later amendments were not checked and no figure or status claim is made. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Global Wetland Outlook 2025, Gland, 2025; the publisher page returned an access error and no figure is used. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 5Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 125 Countries Submit 7th National Reports Ahead of COP17 (news article), Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Protected Planet: global coverage of protected areas and OECMs (statistics page, updated November 2026). UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• BIO
• CLI
• FIN
• GOV
• MIN
• FOO
• DAT
• TRD
• WAT
• HLT

B.3Regional reading: biodiversity across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Habitat card: tropical primary forest

• forest
• primary
• tropical
• fire

Systems in view

forests, food, climate, health

Defining events

2024 record loss and 2025 decline¹⁶

Couplings

FOO → BIO land conversion; CLI → BIO fire; BIO → HLT emergence risk

Capability evidence

enforcement gains in Brazil and national action reported¹⁶

Gaps

degradation versus deforestation definitions; condition of secondary forests

Agenda items

B-01 · B-02

B.5How countries appear in the biodiversity edition

Countries enter the biodiversity edition through the nature chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Protected Planet: global coverage of protected areas and OECMs (statistics page, updated November 2026). UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14United Nations, Treaty Collection, Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page; entry into force 17 January 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
2. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
3. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, draft decision CBD/COP/17/L.15, Global review of collective progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, submitted by the Chair of Working Group I, Yerevan, 29 October 2026 (draft text, not the adopted decision). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
4. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
5. 5Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 125 Countries Submit 7th National Reports Ahead of COP17 (news article), Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
6. 6Steering Committee of the Multilateral Mechanism for the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits from the Use of Digital Sequence Information on Genetic Resources, including the Cali Fund, Report, MMDSI/SC/4/3 and CBD/COP/17/6/Add.1, 15 September 2026 (contributions as at 15 September 2026). Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
7. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
10. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control, Bonn, 2023. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (cost estimate; species records to 2019). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Protected Planet: global coverage of protected areas and OECMs (statistics page, updated November 2026). UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
14. 14United Nations, Treaty Collection, Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page; entry into force 17 January 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
15. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
16. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
17. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
19. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
20. 20Dasgupta, P., The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review, Full Report, HM Treasury, London, 2021. Observation year 2014 (wealth series 1992 to 2014). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
21. 21Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Biodiversity Outlook 5, Montreal, 2020. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
22. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (open-access full text read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
24. 24Díaz, S. et al., Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change, Science 366(6471), eaax3100, 2019 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
25. 25Cardinale, B.J. et al., Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity, Nature 486, 59 to 67, 2012 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P.R., Barnosky, A.D., García, A., Pringle, R.M. and Palmer, T.M., Accelerated modern human-induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction, Science Advances 1(5), e1400253, 2015 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
27. 27Newbold, T. et al., Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment, Science 353(6296), 288 to 291, 2016 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
30. 30Pereira, H.M. et al., Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050, Science 384(6694), 458 to 465, 2024 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31Leclère, D. et al., Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy, Nature 585, 551 to 556, 2020 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
33. 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
34. 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: WWF and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril, Gland and London, 2024; the publisher pages returned an access error, and the headline of a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations from 1970 to 2020 was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. WWF, Gland. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP, State of Finance for Nature 2023: The Big Nature Turnaround, Nairobi, 2023; the report pages returned an access error, and the estimate of nearly USD 7 trillion a year in nature-negative flows against about USD 200 billion for nature-based solutions was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. UN Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, Scaling Up Biodiversity-Positive Incentives: Delivering on Target 18 of the Global Biodiversity Framework, OECD Publishing, Paris, September 2025; the publisher pages returned an access error and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, September 2023; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. TNFD, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 of the European Parliament and of the Council on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024; the Official Journal page was not retrievable and the content is taken from the opened Commission policy page [33]. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, as amended; the Official Journal page was not retrievable and the application dates are taken from the opened Commission policy page [34]. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2772 supplementing Directive 2013/34/EU with sustainability reporting standards, including ESRS E4 on biodiversity and ecosystems, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; later amendments were not checked and no figure or status claim is made. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Global Wetland Outlook 2025, Gland, 2025; the publisher page returned an access error and no figure is used. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN DESA Statistics Division, The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 15 storylines (Red List Index); the page was not located and no figure is used. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IUCN, The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, summary statistics tables (version 2026-1); the tables returned an access error, and only the totals in the opened press release [12] are used. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024, Rome, 2024; only the publication listing was reached and no figure is used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, Washington, 1973, cited from memory; no figure is used. CITES Secretariat, Geneva. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilisation, 2010, cited from memory; no figure is used. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Economic Forum, The Future of Nature and Business, Geneva, 2020; the file could not be retrieved and no figure is used. World Economic Forum, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

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