- Global Biodiversity 2026
- Chapter 8
Systems in depth
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Nature is the layer under every other system
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot, fire-prone season with land conversion and mining expansion
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
8.1Biodiversity and freshwater
Freshwater systems show some of the steepest declines. Wetland area, river flows and freshwater species are tied to drainage, extraction and heat, and in turn support filtration, fisheries and flood buffering.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wetland area | over 85% of wetland area lost; recent losses faster than historic ones | 7 | Reported |
| Freshwater species | inland waters and freshwater ecosystems show among the highest rates of decline | 7 | Reported |
| Dependent people | nexus assessment links biodiversity loss to freshwater availability and quality | 8 | Reported |
| Restoration | EU target of at least 25,000 km of rivers restored to free-flowing by 2030 | 33 | Reported |
Couplings
- WAT → BIO flows and wetland area
- BIO → WAT catchments and filtration
- ENE → BIO dams and river flows
Evidence to bind in 2027
- freshwater condition on one basis
- wetland extent change since 2000
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
8.2Biodiversity and food
Food depends on pollinators, soils and pest control, and food production is also the largest driver of land conversion. The link runs in both directions.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pollination | more than three quarters of leading crop types rely to some extent on animal pollination | 10 | Reported |
| Land conversion | over one third of the land surface used for cropping or animal husbandry | 7 | Reported |
| Invasive species | more than 37,000 established alien species and more than USD 423 billion of annual costs in 2019 | 11 | Reported |
| Supply chains | EU rules on deforestation-free products apply from 30 December 2026 | 34 | Reported |
Couplings
- FOO → BIO land conversion
- BIO → FOO pollination and pest control
- TRD → BIO invasions and supply chains
Evidence to bind in 2027
- pollinator abundance trends
- supply-chain conversion by commodity
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
8.3Biodiversity and health
Nature supports nutrition, medicine and disease regulation. Land-use change at forest edges is linked to higher zoonotic emergence risk, and nature loss touches the health of the most exposed people first.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zoonotic risk | emergence risk elevated in forested tropical regions with land-use change and high mammal richness | 29 | Reported |
| Nutrition and medicine | nature contributes to nutrition, traditional and modern medicines | 8 | Reported |
| Coastal people | nearly 1 billion people live within 100 km of coral reefs | 8 | Reported |
| Clinic and surveillance data | not consolidated here | 8 | Expert input |
Couplings
- BIO → HLT medicines and zoonoses
- FOO → HLT nutrition
- CLI → BIO → HLT heat and smoke
Evidence to bind in 2027
- spillover event frequency on a common basis
- surveillance at forest edges
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
8.4Biodiversity and energy
Energy transitions need minerals, land and river flows. Mining for energy materials overlaps protected sites, and extraction reaches the deep sea. Nature is the side of the energy ledger that is still least measured.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mining overlap | mining influences 50 million km² of land; 7% coincides with Key Biodiversity Areas and 16% with remaining wilderness | 28 | Reported |
| Deep-sea mining | 125 of 201 endemic hydrothermal vent mollusc species at risk | 12 | Reported |
| Hydropower | alters river flows; no consolidated figure here | 8 | Inferred |
| Siting and planning | without strategic planning new mining threats may exceed averted climate threats | 28 | Inferred |
Couplings
- ENE → BIO mining and land use
- MIN → BIO extraction
- CLI → BIO energy-related warming
Evidence to bind in 2027
- siting and permit data
- hydropower effects on rivers
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
8.5Biodiversity, climate and extremes
Heat, fire and extreme events now act on habitats at global scale. Reefs, forests and drylands show the first thresholds, and recovery times are shorter than the intervals between events.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reefs | mass bleaching documented in at least 83 countries and territories in the fourth global event | 19 | Reported |
| Fire | 5.3 million hectares burned in Canada in 2025; fire-driven tropical primary forest loss fell 50% | 1617 | Reported |
| Extinction risk | 3 to 14% of terrestrial species assessed face very high risk at 1.5 °C, up to 3 to 29% at 3 °C | 32 | Reported |
| Tipping risks | Amazon dieback risk below 2 °C; reefs crossing thermal tipping point | 22 | Reported |
Couplings
- CLI → BIO heat and fire
- FOO → BIO fire used to clear land
- BIO → FOO and HLT loss of services
Evidence to bind in 2027
- mortality after reef exposure
- recovery times by ecosystem
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control, Bonn, 2023. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (cost estimate; species records to 2019). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back