Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Nature is the layer under every other system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, fire-prone season with land conversion and mining expansion
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 48 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  2. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  3. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, draft decision CBD/COP/17/L.15, Global review of collective progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, submitted by the Chair of Working Group I, Yerevan, 29 October 2026 (draft text, not the adopted decision). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  4. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  5. 5Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 125 Countries Submit 7th National Reports Ahead of COP17 (news article), Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  6. 6Steering Committee of the Multilateral Mechanism for the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits from the Use of Digital Sequence Information on Genetic Resources, including the Cali Fund, Report, MMDSI/SC/4/3 and CBD/COP/17/6/Add.1, 15 September 2026 (contributions as at 15 September 2026). Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  7. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  10. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control, Bonn, 2023. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (cost estimate; species records to 2019). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Protected Planet: global coverage of protected areas and OECMs (statistics page, updated November 2026). UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  14. 14United Nations, Treaty Collection, Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page; entry into force 17 January 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  16. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  17. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  19. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  20. 20Dasgupta, P., The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review, Full Report, HM Treasury, London, 2021. Observation year 2014 (wealth series 1992 to 2014). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  21. 21Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Biodiversity Outlook 5, Montreal, 2020. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  22. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (open-access full text read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  24. 24Díaz, S. et al., Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change, Science 366(6471), eaax3100, 2019 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  25. 25Cardinale, B.J. et al., Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity, Nature 486, 59 to 67, 2012 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P.R., Barnosky, A.D., García, A., Pringle, R.M. and Palmer, T.M., Accelerated modern human-induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction, Science Advances 1(5), e1400253, 2015 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  27. 27Newbold, T. et al., Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment, Science 353(6296), 288 to 291, 2016 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30Pereira, H.M. et al., Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050, Science 384(6694), 458 to 465, 2024 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31Leclère, D. et al., Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy, Nature 585, 551 to 556, 2020 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  33. 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: WWF and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril, Gland and London, 2024; the publisher pages returned an access error, and the headline of a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations from 1970 to 2020 was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. WWF, Gland. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP, State of Finance for Nature 2023: The Big Nature Turnaround, Nairobi, 2023; the report pages returned an access error, and the estimate of nearly USD 7 trillion a year in nature-negative flows against about USD 200 billion for nature-based solutions was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. UN Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, Scaling Up Biodiversity-Positive Incentives: Delivering on Target 18 of the Global Biodiversity Framework, OECD Publishing, Paris, September 2025; the publisher pages returned an access error and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, September 2023; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. TNFD, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 of the European Parliament and of the Council on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024; the Official Journal page was not retrievable and the content is taken from the opened Commission policy page [33]. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, as amended; the Official Journal page was not retrievable and the application dates are taken from the opened Commission policy page [34]. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2772 supplementing Directive 2013/34/EU with sustainability reporting standards, including ESRS E4 on biodiversity and ecosystems, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; later amendments were not checked and no figure or status claim is made. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Global Wetland Outlook 2025, Gland, 2025; the publisher page returned an access error and no figure is used. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN DESA Statistics Division, The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 15 storylines (Red List Index); the page was not located and no figure is used. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IUCN, The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, summary statistics tables (version 2026-1); the tables returned an access error, and only the totals in the opened press release [12] are used. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024, Rome, 2024; only the publication listing was reached and no figure is used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, Washington, 1973, cited from memory; no figure is used. CITES Secretariat, Geneva. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilisation, 2010, cited from memory; no figure is used. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Economic Forum, The Future of Nature and Business, Geneva, 2020; the file could not be retrieved and no figure is used. World Economic Forum, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Biodiversity Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-11
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 biodiversity edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-11NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-11-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

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ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-11 edition Reports Global Biodiversity 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-11 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Biodiversity Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Biodiversity and Ecosystems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Biodiversity and Ecosystems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Biodiversity and its partners

Biodiversity gives pollination and soils to food (0.6), watershed regulation to water (0.5) and zoonotic spillover and medicines to health (0.4).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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