Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four biodiversity risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table18 notesNR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Nature is the layer under every other system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Hot, fire-prone season with land conversion and mining expansion
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-BIO-001

    Land conversion in biodiversity-rich regions

    Driver
    agricultural expansion and infrastructure as the most widespread land-use change7
    Exposure
    tropical forests, wetland area and grasslands
    Vulnerability
    thin enforcement; fire used to clear land16
    Capacity
    protected areas; supply-chain rules; restoration targets3334
    Cascade
    BIO → FOO, HLT, CLI
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-CLI-002

    Heat stress on reefs and forests

    Driver
    warming toward and above 1.5 °C2232
    Exposure
    warm-water coral reefs; the Amazon; ecosystems at tipping risk
    Vulnerability
    repeated heat events with short recovery times
    Capacity
    local stressor reduction; fire management; refuges22
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-FIN-003

    Finance misaligned with nature

    Driver
    subsidies and investment flows with direct negative impacts9
    Exposure
    sectors moderately to highly dependent on nature8
    Vulnerability
    low disclosure; fewer than 1% of reporting companies mention impacts9
    Capacity
    subsidy reform; disclosure frameworks; public finance1
    Cascade
    FIN → BIO → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS11-MIN-004

    Mining and deep-sea extraction overlap with high-value sites

    Driver
    demand for materials for renewable energy production28
    Exposure
    protected areas, Key Biodiversity Areas, vent ecosystems1228
    Vulnerability
    limited strategic planning; contracts across many jurisdictions12
    Capacity
    strategic siting; marine protected areas where mining is not permitted12
    Cascade
    MIN → BIO, ENE
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for biodiversity at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSprotected areas, restoration law and supply-chain rules exist; implementation uneven23334
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEsatellite forest and reef products strong1718
Early warningEXISTSbleaching forecasts and fire-season monitoring; no common early warning for species decline18
Preparedness and planningEXISTS162 Parties with aligned national targets1
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDseed banks, refuges and reserves described but not consolidated here
ResponseEXISTSBrazil cut non-fire primary forest loss by 41% in 202516
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDecosystem service continuity is discussed in assessments but not tested9
RecoveryDEMONSTRATEDnumbat improved from Endangered to Near Threatened after recovery work12
AdaptationEXISTSrefuge and local stressor reduction measures for reefs and forests22
Social protectionLISTEDrights and benefit-sharing for Indigenous peoples and local communities weakly reflected in national targets1
Finance and insuranceEXISTSUSD 32.7 billion of reported finance; harmful flows far larger29
Institutional coordinationEXISTSFramework, high seas agreement in force414
Technical infrastructureADEQUATEglobal databases for protected areas and tree cover217
WorkforceLISTEDcapacity gaps reported by developing countries1
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong assessments and models; indicator gaps remain73031
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 33European Commission, Nature Restoration Law (policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1991; entry into force 18 August 2024), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 34European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products (policy page; application dates 30 December 2026 and 30 June 2027 after amendment), Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 22Global Tipping Points, Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (summary of key messages on the programme page), University of Exeter and partners, Exeter, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 4Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, December 2022. Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 14United Nations, Treaty Collection, Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page; entry into force 17 January 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 30Pereira, H.M. et al., Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050, Science 384(6694), 458 to 465, 2024 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 31Leclère, D. et al., Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy, Nature 585, 551 to 556, 2020 (abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Biodiversity Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Biodiversity and Ecosystems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Biodiversity and Ecosystems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Biodiversity and its partners

Biodiversity gives pollination and soils to food (0.6), watershed regulation to water (0.5) and zoonotic spillover and medicines to health (0.4).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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