Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Nature is the layer under every other system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, fire-prone season with land conversion and mining expansion
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

BIO · Species

Assessed species threatened with extinction

49,505species

28% of 175,909 assessed.

Reported2026IUCN12

GOV · Area

Terrestrial and inland waters protected or conserved

18.4%

Marine 23.2% under national jurisdiction; 10% of the global ocean.

Reported2025CBD global report2

BIO · Forests

Gross deforestation, annual average

10.9million ha

17.6 million in 1990 to 2000.

Reported2015 to 2025FAO15

FIN · Finance

Flows with direct negative impacts on nature

7.3USD trillion

about USD 220 billion to conservation.

Reported2023IPBES9

GOV · Governance

Parties with national targets aligned to the Framework

83%

162 Parties; fewer than half report on track.

Reported2026CBD1

CLI · Oceans

Coral reef area hit by bleaching-level heat stress

84%

early 2023 to mid-2025; 68% in 2014 to 2017.

Reported2025NOAA18

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through biodiversity, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries biodiversity risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATFreshwater systems hold some of the steepest declines; wetland area has fallen by over 85% and regional flows shape habitats. Volumes and condition on one basis are not consolidated here.WAT ↔ BIOReported EQL 2
ENEMining for energy materials overlaps protected sites; hydropower alters river flows. Siting evidence is not consolidated here.ENE → BIOReported EQL 3
FOOCrop pollination, soils and land conversion tie food to nature; agricultural expansion is the most widespread land-use change.BIO ↔ FOOReported EQL 4
HLTForested tropical regions with land-use change and high mammal richness show elevated zoonotic emergence risk; nature loss touches nutrition and medicine.BIO → HLTReported EQL 3
BIO49,505 threatened species; 75% of land significantly altered; protected or conserved area 18.4% on land and 10% of the global ocean in 2025; Framework behind its targets.the core systemReported EQL 5
CLIReef bleaching in 2023 to 2025; terrestrial extinction risk rises with each increment of warming; tipping risks for reefs and the Amazon.CLI → BIOReported EQL 4
INFExpansion of infrastructure and urban area, which doubled since 1992, comes mostly at the expense of forests and wetland area.INF → BIOReported EQL 3
FINUSD 7.3 trillion of flows with negative impacts against USD 220 billion for nature; USD 32.7 billion of reported biodiversity finance.FIN → BIOReported EQL 5
DATNational reports show data gaps for most targets; headline indicators are reported unevenly.DAT → BIOReported EQL 4
AICRemote sensing and models support forest and reef monitoring; no consolidated series on compute use in nature monitoring is bound here.AIC → BIOExpert input EQL 2
MIN82% of mining areas target materials needed for renewable energy; 62% of endemic vent molluscs are threatened by deep-sea mining.MIN → BIOReported EQL 4
TRDSupply chains drive forest conversion, and the EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 to large and medium operators; invasive alien species move with trade.TRD ↔ BIOReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on biodiversity, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemnature underpins the other systems89compound heat, fire and conversionPARTIAL
GS-01Waterfreshwater species and wetland area decline fastest7flow alteration and heatTHIN
GS-02Energymining for energy materials overlaps protected sites28siting and permittingPARTIAL
GS-03Foodpollinator-dependent crops 35% of volume10land conversion and pollinator lossGOOD
GS-04Healthzoonotic emergence risk in forested tropics29land-use change at forest edgesPARTIAL
GS-05FinanceUSD 7.3 trillion of harmful flows9misaligned incentivesGOOD
GS-06Developmentmeans of implementation below need for developing countries1finance and capacity gapsPARTIAL
GS-07Climateextinction risk rises with warming32warming levels of 1.5 °C and aboveGOOD
GS-08Disasterfire drove 42% of global tree cover loss in 202516fire seasons and coastal hazardsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureinfrastructure expansion at the expense of forests7linear infrastructure in intact areasTHIN
GS-10Citiesurban area doubled since 19927sprawl on wetland area and forestTHIN
GS-11Biodiversity49,505 species threatened; 18.4% of land protected or conserved122habitat loss and extinction riskGOOD
GS-12Earth observationsatellite data underpin forest loss and reef heat stress products1718continuity of missionsPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitaldigital sequence information benefit-sharing fund6data governance for genetic resourcesTHIN
GS-14Policynational targets aligned for 83% of Parties1implementation gapsGOOD
GS-15Sciencestrong assessment base24indicator data and taxonomyPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on Business and Biodiversity, considered at the twelfth session of the Plenary, Manchester, 2026 (layout edition of 16 June 2026). Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2023 (financial flows). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (Nexus assessment), accepted at the eleventh session of the Plenary, Windhoek. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, Bonn, 2016. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2015 (values in 2015 US dollars). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 29Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 32IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Geneva, 2022. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17Global Forest Watch, Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (data and methods note), World Resources Institute, Washington, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 6Steering Committee of the Multilateral Mechanism for the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits from the Use of Digital Sequence Information on Genetic Resources, including the Cali Fund, Report, MMDSI/SC/4/3 and CBD/COP/17/6/Add.1, 15 September 2026 (contributions as at 15 September 2026). Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 24Díaz, S. et al., Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change, Science 366(6471), eaax3100, 2019 (abstract read). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Biodiversity Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Biodiversity and Ecosystems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Global Biodiversity and Ecosystems.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskGlobal Sector Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Biodiversity and Ecosystems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Biodiversity and its partners

Biodiversity gives pollination and soils to food (0.6), watershed regulation to water (0.5) and zoonotic spillover and medicines to health (0.4).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices