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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 biodiversity agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 biodiversity edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Nature is the layer under every other system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, fire-prone season with land conversion and mining expansion
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the biodiversity candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. B-01

    How would a hot, fire-prone season that coincides with land conversion and mining expansion travel through habitats, food and health at once?

    INI-GS11-HAB-01 · compound season test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

  2. B-02

    Where do finance gaps and harmful flows leave national targets without means of implementation?

    INI-GS11-FIN-02 · finance and harmful flows; first output: tracking table by region.

  3. B-03

    Where do mining areas for renewable energy materials overlap protected and high-value sites, and how is siting decided?

    INI-GS11-MIN-03 · mining and protected sites; first output: overlap map with permit status.

  4. B-04

    How do reef bleaching and heat stress translate into mortality, and where are refuges?

    INI-GS11-REF-04 · reef heat exposure and outcomes; first output: exposure and outcome table.

  5. B-05

    Which headline indicators of the Framework can be reported on a common basis, and which cannot?

    INI-GS11-DAT-05 · indicator coverage; first output: indicator coverage register.

  6. B-06

    Which shared habitats lack contingency arrangements for fire, flood or pest outbreak?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

  7. B-07

    How do invasive alien species and land conversion interact on islands?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. B-08

    Which biodiversity capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?

    Biodiversity capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 biodiversity portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS11-HAB-01Compound season testInitiativeB-01PROPOSED
INI-GS11-FIN-02Finance and harmful flowsInitiativeB-02PROPOSED
INI-GS11-MIN-03Mining and protected sitesInitiativeB-03PROPOSED
INI-GS11-REF-04Reef heat exposure and outcomesInitiativeB-04PROPOSED
INI-GS11-DAT-05Indicator coverageInitiativeB-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS11-2027-01Compound season Universe missionMissionB-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The biodiversity edition reads national biodiversity chapters, regional habitat and species evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global biodiversity chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National biodiversity chapters

    nature and ecosystem chapter of each national edition

    DRAFTED · further national baselines

  2. 02

    Habitat and species evidence

    shared forests, reefs, rivers and ocean areas

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Biodiversity sector model

    the living layer of the system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB · SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk · SR-12 Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Biodiversity Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the biodiversity candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the biodiversity candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS11-2027-01 · Compound season Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
BIO-001 · speciespublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
BIO-005 · forestsINI-GS11-HAB-01compound season testPUBLIC
FIN-006 · harmful flowsINI-GS11-FIN-02finance and harmful flowsPUBLIC
GOV-009 · area targetspublic recordarea reference for regional editionsPUBLIC
MIN-010 · mining overlapINI-GS11-MIN-03mining and protected sitesPUBLIC
CLI-004 · reefsINI-GS11-REF-04reef heat exposure and outcomesPUBLIC
GOV-008 · Framework progressINI-GS11-DAT-05indicator coveragePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS11-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Protected and conserved area coverageCBD SecretariatperiodicGOV-009
Red List updatesIUCNperiodicBIO-001
Tree cover loss dataUniversity of Maryland GLAD and World Resources InstituteannualBIO-005
Global Forest Resources AssessmentFAOevery five yearsBIO-005
Coral bleaching status productsNOAA Coral Reef WatchoperationalCLI-004
National reports and online reporting toolCBD SecretariatperiodicGOV-008
Cali Fund reportingAdministrative agent of the FundannualFIN-007

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS11-001Tropical primary forest loss fell 36% in 2025 from the 2024 record16CORROBORATEDBIO · FOOresearch question B-01
SIG-GS11-002Bleaching-level heat stress reached about 84% of reef area1819CORROBORATEDCLI · BIOinitiative B-04
SIG-GS11-003Fewer than half of reporting Parties considered their national targets on track for any global target1PARTIALDAT · BIOinitiative B-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 16World Resources Institute, Tropical Rainforest Loss Drops 36% in 2025, but Fires Threaten Global Progress (release with University of Maryland GLAD Lab data), Washington, 29 April 2026. World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 19NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, World’s Fourth Mass Coral Bleaching Event Likely Ended in 2025 (news release), 2 June 2026. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, State of Biodiversity Action: Summary and Key Messages of the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026 (national reports of 2026; indicator data to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Biodiversity Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Biodiversity and Ecosystems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Biodiversity and Ecosystems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Biodiversity and its partners

Biodiversity gives pollination and soils to food (0.6), watershed regulation to water (0.5) and zoonotic spillover and medicines to health (0.4).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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