Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables17 notesNR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Share of assessed species threatened, 2026	49,505 ÷ 175,909	≈28%
(2)	Harmful flows against flows for nature, 2023	7,300 ÷ 220 (USD billion)	≈33 times
(3)	Reported biodiversity finance against the 2030 goal, 2023	32.7 ÷ 200 (USD billion)	≈16%
(4)	Fall in gross deforestation, 1990 to 2000 to 2015 to 2025	1 − 10.9 ÷ 17.6	≈38%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Biodiversity Sector Model v0

Model ID: MDL-GS11-BIODIVERSITY · v0.1
Purpose: represent the living layer of the global system and its couplings to water, food, health and energy
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

4strong

documented within one season

10moderate

documented, buffered

6weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 biodiversity annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Biodiversity Sector Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Species threatened	2026	Jul 2026	periodic	next Red List update
Area protected and conserved	2026	Nov 2026	monthly	monthly
Forest area and gross deforestation	2015 to 2025	Oct 2025	five-yearly	next assessment
Tropical primary forest loss	2025	Apr 2026	annual	next tree cover loss release
Coral bleaching exposure	2023 to 2025	Jun 2026	event-based	next status update
Flows harmful to nature	2023	Jun 2026	one-off	next IPBES or UNEP report
Reported biodiversity finance	2020 to 2023	2026	periodic	next national reports
Collective progress under the Framework	2026	Oct 2026	periodic	COP17 decision
State of nature overview	2019	2019	one-off	next global assessment
High seas agreement status	2026	Nov 2026	continuous	continuous

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Species	GOOD	group-level counts and trends
Protected areas	GOOD	management effectiveness and condition
Forests	GOOD	definitions across issuers
Freshwater and marine ecosystems	THIN	condition and trend on one basis
Finance	PARTIAL	private and subsidy data
Governance	PARTIAL	final adopted decisions
Minerals and infrastructure	PARTIAL	permits and siting data
Resilience	THIN	tested capabilities beyond area targets

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Living Planet Index values from the 2024 primary report	WWF and ZSL Living Planet Report 2024³⁵	the publisher pages returned an access error; the 2019 values quoted by IPBES (terrestrial 40%, freshwater 84%, marine 35% since 1970) are older and not mixed with later values
Current Red List Index value and trend	IUCN Red List summary statistics⁴⁴; UN DESA SDG Extended Report 2026, Goal 15⁴³	the Red List tables returned an access error and the SDG report page was not located; only the totals in the July 2026 press release were read
Threatened species by taxonomic group, 2026 update	IUCN Red List summary statistics⁴⁴	the summary table was not accessible; the press release gives totals and selected groups only
Final adopted text of the COP17 decision on the global review	CBD decisions of COP17³	only the draft decision of 29 October 2026 was read; the closing text was not retrieved
Biodiversity finance for 2024 and 2025, and whether the 2025 international milestone was met	CBD global report²; national reports to follow	complete data for 2024 and 2025 have not been reported; the report calls the milestone likely not met, not confirmed
Global value of harmful subsidies identified and reformed	OECD Scaling Up Biodiversity-Positive Incentives³⁷; national reports²	only 22 reporting Parties gave data and the OECD report was not opened
Private-sector finance for biodiversity after 2021	CBD global report²; UNEP State of Finance for Nature³⁶	few Parties reported private flows; the UNEP report was not opened
Uptake of nature-related disclosure by companies and financial institutions	TNFD adopter register³⁸; ESRS E4⁴¹	the TNFD pages were not accessible and the legal text was not opened; the only figure used is the IPBES finding that fewer than 1% of reporting companies mention impacts
Wetland extent change since 2000	Ramsar Global Wetland Outlook⁴²	the publisher page returned an access error; the IPBES loss figure of 2019 is used alone
Condition and trend of freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems on one basis	national reports²; IUCN; regional monitoring	the global report states that these ecosystems are less covered in national targets and reports; no consolidated series
Global trend in insect abundance	IPBES Global Assessment⁷	the assessment states that global trends in insect populations are not known
Biodiversity effects of renewable energy siting and hydropower on rivers	permit registers; national statistics; peer-reviewed studies²⁸	no consolidated global series opened; the mining overlap study is the only quantitative source
Deep-sea mining regulatory status at the International Seabed Authority	International Seabed Authority records¹²	records not opened; the IUCN release mentions the moratorium discussion only
Capability rungs beyond area targets and monitoring	ministries, managers, protected area authorities	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the International Union for Conservation of Nature on 9 July 2026 from species assessments by expert groups. Periodic. Role: binds BIO-001 and the species tile. Totals only; group tables not read.

EVD-GS11-001

IUCN Red List, July 2026 update¹²

Compiled by the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity from national reports and other submissions, 2026. Role: binds FIN-007, GOV-008 and data coverage. Based on self-reported information from Parties.

EVD-GS11-002

CBD global report on collective progress²

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-GS11-001	EVD-GS11-002
Completeness	all assessed species; many groups not yet assessed	125 Parties had reported by the February 2026 deadline⁵ ; small island developing States under-represented
Timeliness	about 1 year after the assessment cut	data to 2023 for finance
Revision	periodic updates of the list	first edition; COP17 decisions not adopted at the close
Method transparency	categories and criteria published	methods and scorecard described
External validation	expert review	Party-led process; reviewed in the global review

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

IUCN¹²: totals by taxonomic group
FAO¹⁵: country detail behind forest area
CBD global report²: indicator tables by target
NOAA¹⁸: regional bleaching summaries

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	biodiversity, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
CBD	Convention on Biological Diversity
COP	Conference of the Parties
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GBF	Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
IPBES	Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
IUCN	International Union for Conservation of Nature
Mha	million hectares
OECM	other effective area-based conservation measure
SPM	summary for policymakers
TNFD	Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures
UNEP-WCMC	UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre
WDPCA	World Database on Protected and Conserved Areas

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-GS11-HEAT-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Habitat notes	cards for the major shared forests, reefs, rivers and ocean areas	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: protected and conserved area coverage

Construct: share of land or ocean area within protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures
Unit: share of area
Method: compilation of national submissions in a world database, updated monthly
Source: CBD global report, 2025 values²; Protected Planet page of November 2026 is post-close, context only¹³
Uncertainty: depends on submissions and boundary data; scope differs between reports
Known limits: coverage does not measure management effectiveness or ecological condition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

35UNVERIFIED, not opened: WWF and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril, Gland and London, 2024; the publisher pages returned an access error, and the headline of a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations from 1970 to 2020 was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. WWF, Gland. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IUCN, The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, summary statistics tables (version 2026-1); the tables returned an access error, and only the totals in the opened press release [12] are used. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN DESA Statistics Division, The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 15 storylines (Red List Index); the page was not located and no figure is used. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3POST-CLOSE, context only: Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, draft decision CBD/COP/17/L.15, Global review of collective progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, submitted by the Chair of Working Group I, Yerevan, 29 October 2026 (draft text, not the adopted decision). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (document CBD/COP/17/INF/7), full report, Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2023 (finance 2020 to 2023; protected area coverage 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, Scaling Up Biodiversity-Positive Incentives: Delivering on Target 18 of the Global Biodiversity Framework, OECD Publishing, Paris, September 2025; the publisher pages returned an access error and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP, State of Finance for Nature 2023: The Big Nature Turnaround, Nairobi, 2023; the report pages returned an access error, and the estimate of nearly USD 7 trillion a year in nature-negative flows against about USD 200 billion for nature-based solutions was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure. UN Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, September 2023; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. TNFD, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2772 supplementing Directive 2013/34/EU with sustainability reporting standards, including ESRS E4 on biodiversity and ecosystems, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; later amendments were not checked and no figure or status claim is made. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Global Wetland Outlook 2025, Gland, 2025; the publisher page returned an access error and no figure is used. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7IPBES, Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, 2019. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn. Observation year 2019 (evidence mostly to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28Sonter, L.J., Dade, M.C., Watson, J.E.M. and Valenta, R.K., Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity, Nature Communications 11, 4174, 2020 (open-access abstract read). Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12IUCN, From desert frog to deep-sea molluscs, remarkable species at risk: IUCN Red List (press release on the 2026-1 update), Gland, 9 July 2026. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 125 Countries Submit 7th National Reports Ahead of COP17 (news article), Montreal, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15FAO, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 key findings), Rome, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025 (assessment period 1990 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Current Global Bleaching: Status Update and Data Submission (status page). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2025 (event from 1 January 2023). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Protected Planet: global coverage of protected areas and OECMs (statistics page, updated November 2026). UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Global Biodiversity Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Biodiversity and Ecosystems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-BIODIVERSITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

Name	Purpose	Duration	Party
`wordpress_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out	First party
`wordpress_logged_in_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_sec_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_test_cookie`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`wp-settings-*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	1 year	First party
`wp-postpass_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	10 days	First party
`comment_author_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	About 347 days	First party
`wpEmojiSettingsSupports`browser storage	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`nexus_consent`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_id`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_reset`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	Session	First party
`wp_consent_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent`browser storage	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nx_theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.theme.default`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode-against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.embed.theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_dark_mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_color_mode_against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.a11y`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.dock`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bp-activity`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-groups`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-members`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-blogs`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-messages`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party