Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Energy
    3. 2.3 Climate forcing
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 SEI
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Health
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Finance
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed. In February 2026 Mexico committed to annual deliveries of at least 0.35 million acre-feet and to a plan for the shortfall.

Figure 2.1Rio Grande deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty, 2020–2025 cycle (million acre-feet)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Owed over the cycle1.75
Delivered by late October 20250.88

Source: IBWC accounts as reported in CRS6. The treaty sets a floor of 0.35 million acre-feet a year, measured in five-year cycles20.

Implication

The shortfall links basin hydrology to trade and finance. A repeat would tie further to the USMCA joint review, which CRS notes some Members wish to connect to the treaty621. Reservoir storage and drought, not only policy, set what can be delivered.

What would move it

Annual deliveries against the 0.35 million acre-foot floor, the plan for the 2020–2025 shortfall and the next drought monitor reports would each move this finding.

2.2Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001

    In 2024 Mexico imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products, and dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity generation.4

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

    Clean sources supplied 26% of Mexico’s electricity in 2025, with solar and wind at 13%; the NDC targets 38.5% clean generation in 2030.35

2.3Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    Mexico’s 2035 contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e unconditionally and 332–363 conditionally; the 2030 limit is 644 MtCO₂e gross.319

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    Hurricane Otis made landfall at Acapulco as a category 5 storm in October 2023; heavy rain in October 2025 left 72 dead and 48 missing in four states.717

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

    The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed; Mexico committed in February 2026 to annual deliveries of at least 0.35.620

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    Water stress affected 64% of the continental area in 2025, and 114 aquifers were overexploited in 2023.313

2.5SEI

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-SEI-006

    Parts of Mexico City sink by up to 50 cm a year, and a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on 19 September 2017 triggered emergency declarations in 112 municipalities of Puebla.91011

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

    A constitutional amendment of March 2025 bars planting genetically modified maize, and the United States suspended Mexican live-cattle imports from 11 May 2025 over screwworm.2223

2.7Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    In 2024, 14.4% of the population lacked access to nutritious food and 34.2% lacked access to health services.2

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Of 232 federal protected areas, 94 had no management programme in 2026, and spending was 16.2 pesos per protected hectare.12

2.9Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    The government holds US$420 million of World Bank parametric catastrophe bonds for earthquake and Atlantic storms, maturing in April 2028.8

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought that cuts irrigation and hydropower while heat lifts power demand on a gas-reliant grid. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
  2. 20United States and Mexico, Treaty on Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande. Washington DC, 3 February 1944. Observation year: 1944 (text in force).back
  3. 21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force).back
  4. 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
  5. 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
  6. 5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  7. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Mexico: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 25 February 2026. Observation year: 2025–2026.back
  8. 7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  9. 17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  10. 13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
  11. 9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
  12. 10Secretaría de Gobernación (ed.), Declaratorias de Emergencia Extraordinaria y de Desastre Natural por el sismo de magnitud 7.1 del 19 de septiembre de 2017. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 27–28 September 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
  13. 11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
  14. 22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  15. 23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  16. 2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  17. 12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  18. 8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Mexico.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices