Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table11 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-WAT-001

    Drought, aquifer overdraft and shared-river shortfall

    Driver
    multi-year drought; overdraft; shared-river accounts
    Exposure
    64% of the area; about 70% of people3
    Vulnerability
    114 overexploited aquifers13; Valley of Mexico subsidence11
    Capacity
    drought monitor in routine use15; storage series not bound
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, ENE, HLT, TRD
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-ENE-002

    Gas and fuel supply disruption

    Driver
    cross-border supply shock or price spike
    Exposure
    power, transport, industry
    Vulnerability
    dry gas 64.2% of power; 5,010 PJ of products imported4
    Capacity
    storage depth not bound; clean share 26%5
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-CLI-003

    Tropical cyclones and river flooding

    Driver
    rapidly intensifying Pacific and Atlantic storms
    Exposure
    coastal cities; Gulf-slope valleys
    Vulnerability
    housing and roads on slopes and floodplains
    Capacity
    parametric cover US$420 million8
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-SEI-004

    Great earthquake and subsidence in the Valley of Mexico

    Driver
    intraslab or subduction earthquake; ground sinking
    Exposure
    Mexico City and central states
    Vulnerability
    older buildings; soft lake-bed soils
    Capacity
    seismological service in routine use9; alert capability not bound
    Cascade
    SEI → INF, WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDNDC 3.0 sets mitigation targets and sector shares3
Monitoring and observationEXISTSdrought monitor issued every two weeks since 201415; seismological reports9
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: national civil protection records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planningLISTEDnational plans cited in the NDC3; drill records not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: SENER and Conagua storage data · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseEXISTSNavy deployed about 3,300 personnel in October 2025 rains17
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: grid and utility restoration records · blocker: not published in bound form
RecoveryLISTEDreconstruction task bank cited in the NDC3; durations not bound
AdaptationLISTEDfirst national adaptation policy named as the next step in the NDC3
Social protectionEXISTS41.4% of households received government programme income in 20251
Finance and insuranceEXISTSUS$420 million sovereign parametric cover to April 20288
Institutional coordinationLISTEDwater treaty minutes and a binational work group6
Technical infrastructureLISTEDelectricity expansion plan, 29,074 MW to 20304
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: INEGI and sector registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityLISTEDpeer-reviewed subsidence record11; research base not otherwise assessed
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
  2. 13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
  3. 11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
  4. 15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  5. 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
  6. 5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  7. 8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  8. 9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
  9. 17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  10. 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  11. 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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