Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a multi-year drought cut irrigation, hydropower and city supply together, and how does heat load on the grid change the outcome?

    INI-MEX-WAT-01 · drought and grid compound; first output: dependency graph for two basins.

  2. A-02

    How deep are gas and fuel stocks and import routes against a prolonged cross-border supply disruption?

    INI-MEX-ENE-02 · import resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How do maize, feed and livestock trade depend on a single trading partner?

    INI-MEX-FOO-03 · food trade exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  4. A-04

    How many deaths and hospital cases does a heat season cause, and who counts them?

    INI-MEX-HLT-04 · heat mortality record; first output: national season series.

  5. A-05

    Where do storm and flood losses fall beyond sovereign catastrophe cover?

    INI-MEX-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do aquifer overdraft and subsidence interact in the Valley of Mexico?

    INI-MEX-WAT-06 · workstream; first output: basin note.

  7. A-07

    How does the electricity transition affect water use and cooling demand?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only listed?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-MEX-WAT-01Drought, irrigation and grid compound dependencyInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-MEX-ENE-02Gas and fuel import resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-MEX-FOO-03Maize, feed and livestock trade exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-MEX-HLT-04Heat mortality recordInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-MEX-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-MEX-WAT-01aTwo-basin dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-MEX-2027-01Drought, water and grid Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Mexico is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Mexico from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-MEX-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-MEX-2027-01 · Drought, water and grid Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
ENE-001 · importsINI-MEX-ENE-02import resiliencePUBLIC
WAT-004 · treatyINI-MEX-WAT-01drought and grid compoundPUBLIC
WAT-005 · stressINI-MEX-WAT-06basin notePUBLIC
SEI-006 · Valley of MexicoINI-MEX-WAT-06subsidence and aquifersPUBLIC
CLI-007 · stormsINI-MEX-FIN-05protection gapPUBLIC
FOO-008 · tradeINI-MEX-FOO-03food trade exposurePUBLIC
HLT-009 · deprivationINI-MEX-HLT-04heat mortality recordPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-MEX-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Drought monitorSMN · Conaguaevery two weeksWAT-005
Seismic reportsServicio Sismológico Nacionalper eventSEI-006
Heat-illness surveillanceDirección General de Epidemiologíaweekly in seasonHLT-009
Hurricane advisoriesUS National Hurricane Centerper advisoryCLI-007
Treaty delivery accountsIBWCper cycle and annualWAT-004
Electricity mixEmberannualENE-002
Energy balanceSENERannualENE-001

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-MEX-001Drought area fell from 76% at its 2024 peak to 7.4% in January 202614CORROBORATEDCLI · WATrisk object RSK-MEX-WAT-001
SIG-MEX-002Treaty shortfall of 0.87 million acre-feet at cycle end6CORROBORATEDWAT · TRDresearch question A-01
SIG-MEX-003Repeat flooding and storm losses in 2023 and 2025717CORROBORATEDCLI · INFinitiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
  2. 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
  3. 7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  4. 17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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