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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Rio Grande water delivered in the 2020–2025 cycle, against 1.75 owed

0.88million acre-feet

In February 2026 Mexico committed to at least 0.35 a year and a plan for the shortfall.

Reported2025IBWC via CRS6

ENE · Energy

Clean share of electricity generation

26%

Solar and wind supplied 13%; fossil fuels 74%.

Reported2025Ember5

FOO · Food

Maize imports, latest marketing year

Not boundUSDA · blocker: report not retrievable

The USDA attaché report would fill this tile. It could not be fetched at evidence close.

Not boundn/aUSDA46

HLT · Health

Population with no access to health services (deprivation)

34.2%

About 44.5 million people; the figure was 39.1% in 2022.

Reported2024INEGI2

BIO · Biodiversity

Federal protected areas without a management programme

94of 232

Protected area totals 98 million hectares in 2026.

Reported2026Expansión12

SYS · Cross-system

Hurricane Otis total damage estimate

12–16US$ billion

Category 5 at landfall at Acapulco; 52 direct deaths and 32 missing in the latest update.

Reported2023NHC7

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATWater stress on 64% of the area; 114 overexploited aquifers; shared rivers with the United States.WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENEReported EQL 4
ENEDry gas supplies 64.2% of electricity; 5,010 PJ of refined products imported; clean share 26%.ENE ← TRD · ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOConstitutional ban on planting modified maize; livestock trade disrupted by screwworm; import volumes not bound.FOO ← TRD, WATReported EQL 3
HLTPoverty at 29.6%; 34.2% without access to health services; heat season deaths recorded by state.HLT ← CLI, SEIReported EQL 4
BIO232 federal protected areas, 98 million hectares protected; 94 areas without a management programme.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIDrought peak at 76% in 2024; Otis in 2023; warming of 3.2 °C a century stated by the government.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFValley of Mexico subsidence up to 50 cm a year; 2017 earthquake damage in several states.INF → allInferred EQL 3
FINUS$420 million of parametric cover; four sectors emitting 77% hold 32% of bank credit.FIN ← SEI, CLIReported EQL 4
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and manufacturing load on power and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINCritical minerals and fuels: trade exposure not bound.MIN ← TRDExpert input EQL 2
TRDTrade with one neighbour carries fuel, grain, cattle and water questions.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, heat and gas stressmulti-year drought on a gas-reliant gridPARTIAL
GS-01Waterstress on 64% of the area3drought; aquifer overdraft; treaty deliveriesPARTIAL
GS-02Energydry gas 64.2% of power4import disruption; summer peaksGOOD
GS-03Foodmaize rules and cattle trade2223trade shocks; animal diseaseTHIN
GS-04Healthdeprivation at 34.2%2heat; care accessPARTIAL
GS-05Financesovereign parametric cover8catastrophe fiscal costPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentpoverty at 29.6%2service gapsGOOD
GS-07Climatedrought peak 202414heat, drought, cyclonesGOOD
GS-08Disasterearthquake and cyclone exposure79compound eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructuresubsidence11water and transport networksPARTIAL
GS-10CitiesValley of Mexico basinwater supply, subsidence, quakesPARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversity98 million hectares protected12funding and management gapsPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationSMN monitor in routine use15continuityGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not yet mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyNDC 3.0 and national plan332coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed subsidence work11translation to regionsPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
  2. 5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  3. 46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
  4. 2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  5. 12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  6. 7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  7. 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
  8. 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
  9. 22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  10. 23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  11. 8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  12. 14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
  13. 9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
  14. 11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
  15. 15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  16. 32Gobierno de México (ed.), Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2025–2030. Mexico City, 2025. Observation year: 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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