Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Mexico (México) enters 2027 with 130.9 million residents, a median age of 32 and a multidimensional poverty rate that fell to 29.6% in 202412. Its systems are tied to those of its northern neighbour. In 2024 the country imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products and generated 64.2% of its electricity from dry gas4. The 2020–2025 cycle under the 1944 Water Treaty closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed6. Climate exposure is high and varied. Hurricane Otis struck Acapulco as a category 5 storm in 2023, with US$12–16 billion in damage7. Drought covered 76% of the territory at its 2024 peak14, and in 2025 water stress affected 64% of the continental area3. The updated climate contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e for 20353, while clean sources supplied 26% of electricity in 20255. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Mexico’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, storm, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Mexico baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. The latest national total is not bound here. The 2035 range is 364–404 MtCO₂e net.3

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. Otis in 2023 caused US$12–16 billion in damage, and the October 2025 rains left 72 dead.717

    How exposed is Mexico to storms?Reported

  3. Dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity, and 5,010 PJ of refined products were imported in 2024.4

    How secure is energy supply?Reported

  4. Mexico delivered 0.88 of 1.75 million acre-feet in the last cycle.6

    How secure is the shared water?Reported

  5. It affected 64% of the continental area in 2025.3

    How widespread is water stress?Reported

  6. It fell from 46.8 to 38.5 million people between 2022 and 2024.2

    What did poverty do?Reported

  7. The state holds US$420 million of parametric cover; cover for households is not bound here.8

    Who carries disaster losses?Reported

  8. A multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid. SCN-MEX-DRT-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed. In February 2026 Mexico committed to annual deliveries of at least 0.35 million acre-feet and to a plan for the shortfall.

Figure S.1Rio Grande deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty, 2020–2025 cycle (million acre-feet)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Owed over the cycle1.75
Delivered by late October 20250.88

Source: IBWC accounts as reported in CRS6. The treaty sets a floor of 0.35 million acre-feet a year, measured in five-year cycles20.

The shortfall links basin hydrology to trade and finance. A repeat would tie further to the USMCA joint review, which CRS notes some Members wish to connect to the treaty621. Reservoir storage and drought, not only policy, set what can be delivered.

S.4At a glance

130.9million

residents, 20251

32years

median age, 20251

29.6%

multidimensional poverty, 20242

75.7%

dwellings with internet, 20251

97.6%

dwellings with piped water, 20251

32entities

federal entities and 2,478 municipalities1

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Mexico’s risk: water stress, gas dependence and coastal and seismic hazards act together on a country with a younger population than most peers.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For many people risk arrives as a dry tap, a hot week or a storm.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The state holds US$420 million of parametric cover, and the four sectors that emit 77% of greenhouse gases hold 32% of bank credit.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The evidence is solid on structure and thin on stocks and counts.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Mexico’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  2. 2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  3. 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
  4. 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
  5. 7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  6. 14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
  7. 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
  8. 5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  9. 17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  10. 8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  11. 20United States and Mexico, Treaty on Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande. Washington DC, 3 February 1944. Observation year: 1944 (text in force).back
  12. 21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force).back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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