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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Mexico’s water is scarce in the north and centre, shared with the United States on two rivers, and drawn from aquifers that are overdrawn in many regions. Water stress, drought and treaty accounts are the binding risks.

64%

of the continental area under water stress, 20253

114aquifers

overexploited, 202313

0.88of 1.75

million acre-feet delivered, 2020–20256

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Stresswater stress on 64% of the area, home to about 70% of people3Reported
Aquifers114 overexploited in 2023, against 102 in 201113Reported
Shared riverscycle closed with a shortfall; annual floor restated in 20266Reported
Service coverage97.6% of dwellings with piped water; 2.5% without drainage1Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation and yield
  • WAT → ENE hydropower and cooling
  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
  • WAT → TRD treaty accounts

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • reservoir storage series for the main supply systems
  • aquifer availability by basin

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Mexico produces most of its crude and gas, yet imports refined products and generates most of its electricity from dry gas. Clean power is growing from a low base.

64.2%

of electricity from dry gas, 20244

26%

clean share of electricity, 20255

38.5%

clean-generation target for 20303

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Production7,359 PJ of primary energy, down 27.9% since 20104Reported
Imports5,010 PJ of refined products, mostly dry gas, gasoline and diesel4Reported
Power mixsolar and wind 13%, fossil 74% in 20255Reported
Expansion29,074 MW planned to 2030 for 624,618 million pesos4Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE gas and fuel imports
  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
  • ENE → FOO fuel and irrigation
  • CLI → ENE peak demand

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • gas and fuel storage depth
  • grid resilience to cyclones and earthquakes

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Food policy and trade changed in 2025: planting of modified maize is barred by the constitution, and livestock trade with the United States was disrupted by screwworm. Import volumes were not bound at evidence close.

14.4%

without access to nutritious food, 20242

2.83million ha

crops lost to drought, 2018–20233

Not boundmaize

import volumes · USDA46

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Deprivation14.4% lacked access to nutritious food, 18.8 million people2Reported
Maize ruleconstitutional bar on planting modified maize, March 202522Reported
Cattle tradeUS suspension of live-cattle imports from 11 May 202523Reported
Drought losses2.83 million hectares of crops lost in 2018–20233Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → FOO import dependence
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and yield
  • ENE → FOO fuel and cold chain
  • CLI → FOO heat and drought

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • maize and feed import volumes by origin
  • cattle trade losses

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Poverty fell sharply between 2022 and 2024, yet more than a third of people lacked access to health services. Heat adds load each season, and no national season total was bound at evidence close.

34.2%

without access to health services, 20242

72.5%

affiliated to a health institution, 20251

285deaths

heat deaths reported March to August 202416

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Poverty38.5 million people in 2024, down from 46.8 million in 20222Reported
Access34.2% without access to health services in 20242Reported
Affiliation72.5% affiliated; IMSS covers 54.1% of those affiliated1Reported
Heat285 deaths reported from March to August 202416Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • SEI → HLT injuries and service loss

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • national heat mortality season totals
  • health facility continuity in disasters

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Mexico protects 98 million hectares in 232 federal areas, but many lack a management programme and spending per hectare is small. Forest area and loss were not bound at evidence close.

232areas

federal protected areas, 202612

98million ha

under protection, 202612

94areas

without a management programme12

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protection98 million hectares, 7.3 million more than in 201812Reported
Management94 of 232 areas without a programme12Reported
Spending16.2 pesos per protected hectare in the 2027 proposal, 10.22 in 202512Reported
Forestarea and loss not bound39NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT recharge and regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO drought and fire
  • FOO → BIO land conversion

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • forest area and annual loss
  • ecosystem condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
  2. 13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
  3. 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
  4. 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  5. 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
  6. 5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  7. 2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  8. 46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
  9. 22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  10. 23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
  11. 16El Imparcial (ed.), “¿Cuándo termina la ola de calor del 2024? 285 muertos por altas temperaturas: Secretaría de Salud.” El Imparcial, 28 August 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  12. 12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  13. 39Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025 (Mexico country report not opened at evidence close). Observation year: 2025 (not bound).back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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