- Mexico 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Rio Grande shortfall, 2020–2025 cycle | 1.75 − 0.88 | 0.87 million acre-feet |
| (2) | Shortfall as a share of the cycle floor | 0.87 ÷ 1.75 | ≈ 50% |
| (3) | Refined products as a share of total energy supply, 2024 | 5,010 ÷ 12,354 | ≈ 41% |
| (4) | Primary production as a share of total energy supply, 2024 | 7,359 ÷ 12,354 | ≈ 60% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-MEX-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Mexico as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for state or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 47 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-MEX-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population and housing | 2025 | Sep 2026 | quinquennial | next intercensal round |
| Multidimensional poverty | 2024 | Aug 2025 | biennial | next ENIGH round |
| Energy balance | 2024 | Jun 2026 | annual | next annual balance |
| Electricity mix | 2025 | May 2026 | annual | annual |
| Treaty deliveries | cycle to Oct 2025 | Mar 2026 | per cycle | next cycle report |
| NDC 3.0 | 2025 | Nov 2025 | periodic | next contribution |
| Hurricane Otis | 2023 | 2024 | per event | per event |
| Drought area | Jan 2026 | Jan 2026 | biweekly | biweekly |
| Aquifer overexploitation | 2023 | Jan 2026 | periodic | next availability update |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Seismic hazard | PARTIAL | lifeline fragility in the Valley of Mexico |
| Climate forcing | GOOD | municipal drought and heat series |
| Energy | GOOD | stock depth and routes |
| Food | THIN | maize and feed import volumes |
| Health | PARTIAL | heat mortality totals |
| Water | PARTIAL | reservoir storage series |
| Biodiversity | PARTIAL | forest area and loss |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by INEGI, the national statistics institute, as press release 54/26 of 22 September 2026. Fieldwork 6 October to 14 November 2025; sample of 7.3 million dwellings. Role: binds population, housing and service figures.
EVD-MEX-001
Intercensal Survey 20251
Issued by SEMARNAT as Mexico’s updated contribution to the UNFCCC in November 2025. Periodic. Role: binds targets, sector shares, water-stress and loss figures, labelled as stated by the government.
EVD-MEX-002
NDC 3.03
| Dimension | EVD-MEX-001 | EVD-MEX-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all 32 federal entities; 2,478 municipalities | national scope; sectors in full |
| Timeliness | about 11 months after fieldwork | published within weeks of submission |
| Revision | comparable with earlier censuses | revised at each contribution |
| Method transparency | published sample and method | sources named, some data preliminary |
| External validation | official statistics system | review under the Paris framework |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| Banxico | Bank of Mexico (Banco de México) |
| CAT | Climate Action Tracker |
| Conagua | National Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua) |
| Conanp | National Commission of Protected Natural Areas |
| CRS | Congressional Research Service |
| DGE | General Directorate of Epidemiology (Dirección General de Epidemiología) |
| ENIGH | National Household Income and Expenditure Survey |
| IBWC | International Boundary and Water Commission |
| INECC | National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change |
| INEGI | National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| NHC | US National Hurricane Center |
| SENER | Ministry of Energy (Secretaría de Energía) |
| SMN | National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) |
| SSN | National Seismological Service (Servicio Sismológico Nacional) |
| USMCA | United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-MEX-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | State notes | atlas cards for every state | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, share of energy supply imported
- Construct
- imported refined energy products divided by total energy supply
- Unit
- petajoules, ratio
- Scope
- Mexico, calendar year 2024
- Source
- SENER balance38, as reproduced by the Bank of Mexico4
- Revision
- figures as of April 2026; revisions possible
- Known limits
- components in the source do not sum exactly to the total
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
- 36Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Informe del Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases y Compuestos de Efecto Invernadero 1990–2022. INECC, Mexico City, 2024. Observation year: 2022 (total not bound in this edition).back
- 37Comisión Nacional del Agua (ed.), Estadísticas del Agua en México. Conagua, Mexico City, latest edition (not opened at evidence close). Observation year: to be bound.back
- 47Dirección General de Epidemiología (ed.), Informe semanal de daños a la salud por temperaturas naturales extremas. Secretaría de Salud, Mexico City, weekly in season (national season total not retrieved). Observation year: not bound.back
- 46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
- 38Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. SENER, Mexico City, 2025 (figures used as reproduced in [4]). Observation year: 2024.back
- 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back