- Mexico 2026
- Annex B
Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 130.9 | million | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Median age | 32 | years | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Multidimensional poverty | 29.6 | % | 2024 | Reported | 2 |
| Extreme poverty | 5.3 | % | 2024 | Reported | 2 |
| Lacking access to nutritious food | 14.4 | % | 2024 | Reported | 2 |
| Lacking access to health services | 34.2 | % | 2024 | Reported | 2 |
| Primary energy production | 7,359 | PJ | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Refined products imported | 5,010 | PJ | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Dry gas share of electricity | 64.2 | % | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Clean share of electricity | 26 | % | 2025 | Reported | 5 |
| Net emissions target 2035, unconditional | 364–404 | MtCO₂e | 2035 | Reported | 3 |
| Rio Grande water delivered, 2020–2025 | 0.88 | million acre-feet | 2025 | Reported | 6 |
| Area under water stress | 64 | % | 2025 | Reported | 3 |
| Overexploited aquifers | 114 | aquifers | 2023 | Reported | 13 |
| Federal protected areas without management programme | 94 of 232 | areas | 2026 | Reported | 12 |
| Hurricane Otis total damage | 12–16 | US$ billion | 2023 | Reported | 7 |
| National greenhouse-gas total, latest year | Not bound | MtCO₂e | n/a | NOT BOUND | INECC36 |
| Heat deaths, national season total | Not bound | deaths | n/a | NOT BOUND | DGE47 |
| Maize imports, latest marketing year | Not bound | million t | n/a | NOT BOUND | USDA46 |
| Forest area and annual loss | Not bound | ha | n/a | NOT BOUND | FAO39 |
B.2National source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- WAT
- ENE
- FOO
- HLT
- BIO
- CLI
- INF
- FIN
- TRD
- MIN
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercensal Survey 20251 | national statistics | national | 2025 | quinquennial | profile |
| Poverty measurement2 | national statistics | national | 2024 | biennial | HLT |
| NDC 3.03 | government | national | 2025 | periodic | CLI |
| Energy balance via Banxico4 | central bank · ministry | national | 2024 | annual | ENE |
| Electricity profile5 | independent think tank | national | 2025 | annual | ENE |
| Delivery accounts6 | legislative research service | binational | 2025 | per cycle | WAT |
| Hurricane report7 | national technical authority | event | 2023 | per event | CLI |
| Seismological report9 | university service | event | 2017 | per event | SEI |
| Drought monitor15 | national technical authority | national | to 2026 | biweekly | WAT |
| Aquifer counts13 | press reporting official data | national | 2023 | periodic | WAT |
| Protected areas12 | press reporting official data | national | 2026 | annual | BIO |
B.3Regional reading, Mexico by region
Map plates for every state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern border states | drought, shared rivers, heat | water, energy, food trade | treaty accounts6 |
| Pacific coast | category 5 storms, earthquakes | housing, roads, power | Otis 20237 · January 2026 quake18 |
| Valley of Mexico and central highlands | subsidence, water stress, earthquakes | water, buildings, health | subsidence11 · 20179 |
| Gulf-slope states (Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla) | heavy rain, floods, landslides | roads, homes, power | October 202517 |
| Atlantic coast | Atlantic named storms | coastal infrastructure | cat bond class C8 |
| Southern states | poverty, health access | health, food | not bound by state in this edition |
B.4Atlas card, Acapulco and the Guerrero coast
- region
- Pacific coast
- storm landfall
- seismic zone
- Systems in view
- housing, roads, power, health and tourism
- Defining events
- Hurricane Otis, category 5, 25 October 20237; magnitude 6.5 earthquake near San Marcos on 2 January 202618
- Couplings
- CLI → INF; SEI → INF; INF → HLT
- Capability evidence
- storm and seismic reports in routine use79
- Gaps
- restoration times; housing loss counts; insurance take-up
- Agenda items
- A-05
Otis made landfall at Acapulco as a 140-kt category 5 hurricane, the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific since the centre’s records began.
STORM
Strongest landfall on record
The centre estimates total damage at US$12–16 billion, and the latest update counted 52 direct deaths with 32 people missing.
LOSSES
US$12–16 billion
A magnitude 6.5 earthquake near San Marcos on 2 January 2026 was felt in Mexico City, and damage to homes was reported in Guerrero.
EARTHQUAKE
A second test in 2026
B.5Mexico system card
The card through which Mexico appears in the North America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.
| System | Baseline state | Coupling to watch | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water | stress on 64% of the area; shared rivers | drought into food and power | PARTIAL |
| Energy | dry gas 64.2% of power; clean 26% | import disruption | GOOD |
| Food | maize rule and cattle trade changes | trade shocks | THIN |
| Health | deprivation 34.2%; heat deaths | heat and water stress | PARTIAL |
| Biodiversity | 98 million hectares protected | funding and management gaps | PARTIAL |
Context
- Archetype
- large federal economy with shared rivers, imported fuels and coastal and seismic exposure
- Population
- 130.9 million (2025)1
- Trade
- USMCA partner; fuels, grain and cattle cross the northern border42123
- Hazard
- Otis damage US$12–16 billion7
Mexico’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.
NORTH AMERICA REGIONAL EDITION
One regional system
Mexican evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.
GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES
Same findings, same IDs
In the global edition Mexico is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
GLOBAL FLAGSHIP
Peers, not ranks
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
- 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
- 5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
- 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
- 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
- 13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
- 12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
- 36Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Informe del Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases y Compuestos de Efecto Invernadero 1990–2022. INECC, Mexico City, 2024. Observation year: 2022 (total not bound in this edition).back
- 47Dirección General de Epidemiología (ed.), Informe semanal de daños a la salud por temperaturas naturales extremas. Secretaría de Salud, Mexico City, weekly in season (national season total not retrieved). Observation year: not bound.back
- 46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
- 39Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025 (Mexico country report not opened at evidence close). Observation year: 2025 (not bound).back
- 30S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 31S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
- 15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 18ADN40 (ed.), “Sismo del 2 de enero acumula cerca de mil réplicas: recuento de daños y zonas afectadas.” ADN40, Mexico City, 2 January 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
- 11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
- 17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
- 8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
- 21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force).back
- 23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back