- ASEAN 2026
- Annex C
References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.148 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook, October 2026: real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, GDP in US dollars and current account balance, DataMapper series for the ASEAN states (2025 estimates and 2026 and 2027 projections). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 4United Nations Development Programme (ed.), Human Development Report 2025: composite indices time series (Human Development Index, life expectancy, schooling, gross national income per capita, 2023 values for the ASEAN states). UNDP, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6
- 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable energy consumption share of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS) and renewable electricity output share (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021 (2022 for Lao PDR and Timor-Leste final energy). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
- 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
- 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
- 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
- 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), population aged 65 and above, population density, population growth and urban population living in slums, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (2022 for slums, 2024 for density). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
- 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at the international line (SI.POV.DDAY) and prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (undernourishment) and 2017 to 2025 (poverty, varies by state). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
- 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
- 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 19ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), ACE to guide regional energy transition through the launch of the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (press release, 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 22POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), ASMC Alerts: regional haze situation (alert scale and entries, southern ASEAN Level 2 of 29 October 2026, Level 3 of 26 August 2026, northern ASEAN Level 0 of 14 May 2026; entries after 30 September 2026 are post-close, context only). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 24ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
- 28Reports series (ed.), Series registry of subjects (federation registry; entries for REG-ASN, IDN and SGP read). The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 29POST-CLOSE, context only: Reports series (ed.), Editorial programme, 3 November 2026 (evidence rules and copy standard). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2007. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin, 1995 (named on the commission page opened [27]; text not opened). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 1995. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Fourteenth Meeting of the Sub-Regional Ministerial Steering Committee on Transboundary Haze Pollution in the Mekong Sub-Region (page refused; named as the record of Mekong sub-region haze alerts; no value taken from it). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 (page refused). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN, third edition (page refused). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ed.), Paris Agreement, 2015. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the drafting desk). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Indonesia and Singapore (draft packs in preparation; no value taken from them). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- ASEAN Regional Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Edition 2026–2030
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REG-ASN | NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-REG-ASN-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for ASEAN; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- REG-ASN edition Reports ASEAN 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-ASN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
