- East Asia 2026
- Annex C
References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.151 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 7Carbon Brief (ed.), Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 21 months (published 12 February 2026). Carbon Brief, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
- 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
- 17The Korea Times (ed.), Number of newborns hits 4-year high in 2025 (report on the Ministry of Data and Statistics release, 25 February 2026; 254,457 births, total fertility rate 0.8). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
- 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, µg per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
- 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
- 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan (ed.), Food self-sufficiency rate, FY2025 (a secondary report of 37% was seen as a headline only; the page body was not readable). MAFF, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Annual climate summary for 2025 (the file could not be read as text; values in search summaries were not used). JMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan (ed.), 2025 Population Census, preliminary results (the release page returned not found). MIC, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Korea Forest Service (ed.), Final report on the March 2025 wildfires (final area and deaths not read). Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of Korea (latest submission; not retrieved). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Damage estimate for a Nankai Trough megaquake, revised 2025 (taken from the draft Japan national edition; figures not used here). Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia project team, PM2.5 model comparison for base year 2013, Atmosphere, vol. 12, no. 4, p. 469 (listed in search results). MDPI, Basel, 2021. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base; not read by this author). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Edition 2026 for Japan (draft pack; only the opening of the specification was read; the China and Republic of Korea editions are in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement. UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- East Asia Regional Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Edition 2026–2030
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REG-EAS | NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-REG-EAS-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for East Asia; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- REG-EAS edition Reports East Asia 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-EAS is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
