Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Oceania-Pacific’s risk is set by ocean, coast and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Cyclone and marine-heatwave season across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 55 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.155 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25 (released 31 March 2026; eight capital cities 18,750,888 at 30 June 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  3. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  4. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 (released 2 September 2026; GDP up 0.4% in the quarter and 2.1% in the year). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue; the page carries two release dates; wheat 36 million tonnes, 369 million hectares of agricultural land). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area and agricultural land (AG.LND.FRST.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  16. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population and population ages 65 and above (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  17. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  19. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 report launch (event page; launch date 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  20. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent: thematic areas (seven areas; 18 members). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  22. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25Asian Development Bank (ed.), Pacific Economic Monitor (series page; latest edition listed, August 2024, Building Resilience the Pacific Way; no figure used). ADB, Manila. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases (topic page; about 12 million deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the Western Pacific Region in 2019; Pacific Islands–WHO Multi-country Cooperation Strategy 2024–2029). WHO, Manila. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  27. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  28. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology (ed.), Annual Climate Statement 2025 (national mean temperature 1.23 °C above the 1961–1990 average, fourth warmest since 1910–11, from search summaries; the Bureau host returned 403). BoM, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment Report 2025 (existence from search results and from [24]; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Boe Declaration on Regional Security (2018; listed from memory). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia and Government of Tuvalu (eds.), Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty (signed 2023; listed from memory). 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. IPCC, Geneva, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Community (ed.), PDH.stat population projections and estimates (Pacific Data Hub; the host returned 403; a search result noted a change of basis to UN World Population Prospects 2024 in April 2025). SPC, Noumea. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (not read; the IRENA host returned 403). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review (the IEA country page returned 403). IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), Quarterly Energy Dynamics (latest quarter at evidence close not read; the AEMO host returned 403). AEMO, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Australian Crop Report (latest edition not read; the ABARES host returned 503). ABARES, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024 (the AIHW host returned 403). AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Change Authority (ed.), advice on Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target (the host returned 503). Climate Change Authority, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024 (the Bureau host returned 403). BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  53. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (ed.), State of Environment and Conservation in the Pacific Islands: 2020 Regional Report (listed from memory). SPREP, Apia, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  54. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  55. 55S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Edition 2026 for Australia (draft; the specification and edition notes were read, not the built pack). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Oceania-Pacific Regional Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
REG-OCPNR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-REG-OCP-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. REG-OCP edition Reports Oceania-Pacific 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-OCP is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Oceania-Pacific Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Oceania-Pacific’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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