Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Biodiversity
    5. 2.5 SEI
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Health
    8. 2.8 Water
    9. 2.9 Infrastructure
    10. 2.10 Trade
    11. 2.11 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004

The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990, and a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory.

Figure 2.1Forest removals against the 1990 net base (Mt CO₂e)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Average annual removals since 1990, as stated in the NDC1,200
1990 net base year, with removals counted2,427

Source: second NDC1. The removals value is a national average claim; the 2026 inventory series was not read.

Implication

Forests carry the national climate position. The size of the sink changed in successive inventories, with the 2021 value revised from about 505 to about 750 Mt CO₂e of removals in a later submission4. A sink of this size is also a risk: fire, pests and thaw can turn removals into emissions2731.

What would move it

The 2027 inventory submission, independent forest inventories, full-season wildfire area and any revision of the managed-forest area would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    The second NDC sets 2035 net emissions at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted; the 1990 net base is 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    2025 was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, +1.24 °C against the reference period, after 2020 at +2.03 °C.56

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

    Thermal plants produced 57.5% of electricity in the unified system in 2025, nuclear 18.7% and hydropower 16.7%; natural gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023.89

2.4Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004

    The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990; a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory.131

2.5SEI

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

    A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula on 29 July 2025 and generated a tsunami; losses are not bound in this edition.25

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    The 2025 grain harvest was 141.2 Mt, including 91.1 Mt of wheat, on the Rosstat series that excludes the new regions; the preliminary figure in December 2025 was 139.4 Mt.2122

2.7Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

    17.8% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025 and life expectancy was 73.4 years in 2024; monthly births and deaths were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025.131424

  2. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    Heat-attributable deaths are not bound: no national cause-of-death series was available at evidence close. Rosstat · Ministry of Health

2.8Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

    The Orsk dam on the Ural River failed on 5 April 2024 when the river reached 9.6 m against a design level of 5.5 m; more than 7,700 people were evacuated across the Orenburg Region.26

2.9Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

    The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, and permafrost temperatures have risen globally; a fuel tank failure at Norilsk in 2020 released about 17,500 t of diesel.293032

2.10Trade

  1. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011

    Exports of crude oil, gas, coal and grain tie national income and supply to external demand and logistics; GDP growth was 4.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025.92022

2.11Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region, with wildfire smoke over cities and strain on power and health services. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
  2. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025.back
  3. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back
  4. 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back
  5. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
  6. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
  7. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
  8. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
  9. 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
  10. 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025.back
  11. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
  12. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  13. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  14. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
  15. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
  16. 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
  17. 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
  18. 32S. Rajendran et al., “Monitoring oil spill in Norilsk, Russia using satellite data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021.back
  19. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Russian Federation Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the Russian Federation’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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