- Russian Federation 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
The Russian Federation enters 2027 as a large continental economy whose energy, forest and permafrost systems are central to its climate position, and whose official data releases have narrowed. Its second nationally determined contribution sets net emissions in 2035 at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted, against a 1990 net base of 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e1. Natural gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 20239, and thermal plants produced 57.5% of electricity in 20258. 2025 was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, at +1.24 °C56, and the Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 197929. The 2025 grain harvest was 141.2 Mt on the Rosstat series that excludes the new regions22. A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Kamchatka on 29 July 202525, and the Orsk dam on the Ural River failed in April 202426. Monthly births and deaths stopped appearing in Rosstat releases in 202524, and the latest national emissions total is not bound here. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state, names what could not be sourced, maps the couplings through which heat, flood, thaw and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the Russian Federation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
The 1990 net base is 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e and the 2035 target is 65 to 67% of it. The latest national total is not bound here.1
Where do emissions stand?Reported
A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Kamchatka on 29 July 2025. National losses are not bound.25
How exposed is Russia to earthquakes?Reported
Thermal plants produced 57.5% of power in 2025 and gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023.89
How secure is energy supply?Reported
Grain harvest was 141.2 Mt in 2025 and undernourishment is at the reporting floor.1922
How secure is food?Reported
Heat-attributable deaths are not bound. 2025 was the second-warmest year on record. Rosstat · Ministry of Health
Is heat now a health hazard?Not bound
A dam built for 5.5 m failed when the river reached 9.6 m.26
What did the Orsk flood reveal?Reported
Insurance take-up and public loss-sharing were not bound at evidence close. Bank of Russia
Who carries the losses?Not bound
Heat and drought in a grain and forest region with smoke, power and health strain. SCN-RUS-HTD-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004
The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990, and a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Average annual removals since 1990, as stated in the NDC | 1,200 | |
| 1990 net base year, with removals counted | 2,427 |
Source: second NDC1. The removals value is a national average claim; the 2026 inventory series was not read.
Forests carry the national climate position. The size of the sink changed in successive inventories, with the 2021 value revised from about 505 to about 750 Mt CO₂e of removals in a later submission4. A sink of this size is also a risk: fire, pests and thaw can turn removals into emissions2731.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Russia’s risk: climate warming and permafrost thaw are well documented, the energy system concentrates national income, and the data environment limits what can be bound.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a hot summer, a flood in spring or a smoke-filled sky.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insurance depth and public loss-sharing are not bound, and external financing conditions are described in the NDC as restricted.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Russia’s climate, forest and energy systems are documented well enough to frame the 2027 agenda, and thinner for health, dams and urban exposure.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of the Russian Federation’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
- 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
- 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
- 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
- 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
- 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
- 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
- 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
- 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
- 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
- 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025.back
- 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back
- 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back
- 23Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary population estimate as of 1 January 2025, as reported by TASS, 31 January 2025.back
- 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back