- Russian Federation 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
People using safely managed drinking water
76.3%Renewable internal freshwater is about 29,895 m³ per person, and 1.5% of internal resources are withdrawn.
Reported2024World Bank WDI17
ENE · Energy
Electricity generation in the unified system
1,166TWhDown 1.2% on 2024; thermal 57.5%, nuclear 18.7%, hydropower 16.7%.
Reported2025System Operator8
FOO · Food
Grain harvest, Rosstat series excluding new regions
141.2MtWheat 91.1 Mt. The ministry estimate including new regions is 147 Mt.
Reported2025Rosstat22
HLT · Health
Life expectancy at birth
73.4yearsMonthly births and deaths and regional series were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025.
BIO · Biodiversity
Terrestrial and marine protected areas
8.6% of territoryForest covers 50.8% of land. The global target is 30% by 2030.
SYS · Cross-system
Kamchatka earthquake, moment magnitude
8.8MwStruck on 29 July 2025 at 35 km depth; a tsunami was generated. Losses are not bound.
Reported2025USGS25
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Abundant freshwater per person; spring floods; dam safety shown at Orsk in 2024. | WAT → INF · WAT → FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| ENE | Gas-heavy primary energy; thermal power above 57%; large fossil exports. | ENE ← TRD · ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Grain harvest 141.2 Mt in 2025; undernourishment at the reporting floor. | FOO ← CLI, TRD | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | Ageing population; national health series narrowed from 2025. | HLT ← CLI | Not bound EQL 2 |
| BIO | Forest on 50.8% of land; protected share 8.6%; fire and thaw pressure. | BIO ↔ CLI, WAT | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | Second-warmest year on record in 2025; Arctic amplification. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 4 |
| INF | Permafrost thaw reaches northern infrastructure; condition not bound. | INF → ENE, all | Inferred EQL 2 |
| FIN | GDP growth 4.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025; insurance depth not bound. | FIN ← SEI, CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Official demographic and cause-of-death series withdrawn or limited. | DAT → HLT, all | Reported EQL 3 |
| AIC | Compute and data-centre demand for power and water not bound. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 1 |
| MIN | Mineral and metal supply not bound in this edition. | MIN ← TRD | Expert input EQL 1 |
| TRD | Energy and grain exports; logistics and external demand as couplings. | TRD → all | Inferred EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound heat, drought and smoke stress | summer heat in a grain and forest region | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | flood and dam safety at Orsk26 | spring floods; reservoir storage not bound | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | thermal 57.5% of power8 | cold extremes; export disruption | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | grain harvest 141.2 Mt22 | weather; inputs; logistics | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | ageing; data limits1324 | heat; series not released | THIN |
| GS-05 | Finance | GDP growth 1.0% in 202520 | export revenue; insurance not bound | THIN |
| GS-06 | Development | federal districts differ in climate and exposure | remote and northern service delivery | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | second-warmest year in 202556 | heat; permafrost thaw | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | federal emergency regime used at Orsk26; Sendai reporting not reviewed44 | earthquake; flood; wildfire | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | permafrost exposure not bound30 | thaw; dam condition | THIN |
| GS-10 | Cities | urban data not bound | heat and smoke exposure | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | forest 50.8% of land15 | fire; thaw; protection gap | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | national climate reporting exists5 | access to underlying data | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not bound | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | Climate Doctrine 2023 and adaptation plan4043 | implementation evidence | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed forest and permafrost work3031 | translation to regions | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
- 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
- 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
- 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
- 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
- 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
- 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
- 44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
- 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
- 40President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 812 of 26 October 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
- 43Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), National Action Plan for the first stage of adaptation to climate change up to 2025, Order No. 559-r of 11 March 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
- 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back