- Russian Federation 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Russia’s risk: climate warming and permafrost thaw are well documented, the energy system concentrates national income, and the data environment limits what can be bound. Evidence is strongest for targets, power mix and climate, and weakest for health, dams and insurance.
CLI-001 · CLI-003 · HLT-008 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a hot summer, a flood in spring or a smoke-filled sky. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how narrower official releases change what citizens, researchers and local authorities can know about these risks.
HLT-007 · HLT-008 · WAT-009
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insurance depth and public loss-sharing are not bound, and external financing conditions are described in the NDC as restricted1. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.
TRD-011 · WAT-009
NEXUS
Synthesis
Russia’s climate, forest and energy systems are documented well enough to frame the 2027 agenda, and thinner for health, dams and urban exposure. The 2027 programme should map the heat, drought and smoke pathway, bind the 2026 inventory series and register what is not released.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-04
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the Russian Federation. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Russian Federation | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
The national climate target counts forest removals, and the size of the sink has been revised between inventories. The baseline treats the forest as a stock that can lose carbon to fire and thaw, not as a fixed credit.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Forests are both the target and the risk
Arctic warming has run nearly four times the global rate since 1979, and permafrost has warmed worldwide. For infrastructure in the north, the question is monitoring and design, not a single number.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
The Arctic is where warming shows first
Gas, oil, coal and power connect domestic supply to export demand. Resilience here is a question about routes, stocks and cold weather as much as about volumes.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Energy is the national income and the national risk
Several official series on births, deaths and causes were withdrawn in 2025. This edition marks each gap with the source that would fill it, and does not estimate.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
What cannot be seen cannot be managed
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement46 · second NDC, 65 to 67% of 1990 by 20351 | UNFCCC · Russian Federation | national | SUBMITTED 2025 | emissions pathway |
| Federal Law No. 296-FZ on Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions41 | Russian Federation | national | ADOPTED 2021 | emissions framework |
| Federal Law No. 34-FZ, Sakhalin emissions experiment42 | Russian Federation | regional experiment | ADOPTED 2022 | emissions limits trial |
| Climate Doctrine, Decree No. 81240 | President of the Russian Federation | national | ADOPTED 2023 | climate policy |
| National Action Plan for adaptation, Order No. 559-r43 | Government of the Russian Federation | national | ADOPTED 2023 | adaptation |
| Energy Strategy to 2050, Order No. 908-r10 | Government of the Russian Federation | national | IN EFFECT 2025 | energy pathway |
| Food Security Doctrine, Decree No. 2039 | President of the Russian Federation | national | ADOPTED 2020 | food thresholds |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework45 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the Russian Federation’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee and Romero (eds.)36 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)35 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.34 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Rantanen et al.29 | journal article | 2022 | supports | Arctic amplification |
| Biskaborn et al.30 | journal article | 2019 | supports | permafrost warming |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roshydromet Third Assessment Report7 | Roshydromet | 2022 | context | national climate assessment |
| Roshydromet climate report 20255 | Roshydromet | 2026 | supports | temperature record |
| Second NDC1 | Government of the Russian Federation | 2025 | supports | targets and forests |
| Energy Strategy to 205010 | Government of the Russian Federation | 2025 | supports | energy pathway |
| State of the Global Climate37 | WMO | 2025 | context | global background |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest carbon study31 | journal article | 2021 | supports | sink uncertainty |
| Norilsk spill monitoring32 | journal article | 2021 | supports | permafrost and infrastructure |
| Permafrost and infrastructure33 | journal article | 2022 | context | infrastructure hazard |
| 2010 summer heat28 | journal article | 2011 | context | heat analogue |
| Population prospects38 | UN DESA | 2024 | context | age structure |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity operating data8 | System Operator | 2026 | supports | power mix |
| EIA country analysis9 | US EIA | 2025 | supports | energy and exports |
| Grain harvest releases2122 | Rosstat | 2025 to 2026 | supports | food |
| Indicator series1220 | World Bank | 2026 | supports | population and growth |
| Inventory data report3 | UNFCCC secretariat | 2026 | context | inventory background |
Where the evidence agrees
Where it is unsettled
- The net emissions level and trend from the 2026 inventory
- How much heat mortality is occurring in a period of limited releases24
- The condition of dams and northern infrastructure
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
- 46UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
- 41Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 296-FZ of 2 July 2021 on Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Moscow, 2021.back
- 42Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 34-FZ of 6 March 2022 on an experiment to limit greenhouse gas emissions in selected entities of the Russian Federation. Moscow, 2022.back
- 40President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 812 of 26 October 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
- 43Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), National Action Plan for the first stage of adaptation to climate change up to 2025, Order No. 559-r of 11 March 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
- 10Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2050, Order No. 908-r of 12 April 2025. Moscow, 2025.back
- 39President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 20 of 21 January 2020. Moscow, 2020.back
- 45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
- 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026.back
- 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
- 36H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
- 35P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
- 34J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
- 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
- 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
- 7Roshydromet (ed.), Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation: General Summary. Roshydromet, Saint Petersburg, 2022.back
- 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
- 37World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
- 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back
- 32S. Rajendran et al., “Monitoring oil spill in Norilsk, Russia using satellite data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021.back
- 33J. Hjort, D. Streletskiy, G. Doré et al., “Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure,” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
- 28D. Barriopedro, E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo and R. García-Herrera, “The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe,” Science, vol. 332, pp. 220–224, 2011. doi:10.1126/science.1201224. doi:10.1126/science.1201224back
- 38United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
- 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
- 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
- 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025.back
- 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
- 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
- 3UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 1990–2024, FCCC/SBI/2026/21. UNFCCC, Bonn, 28 August 2026.back
- 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025.back