- Russian Federation 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
ReportedEQL 3RSK-RUS-CLI-001
Heat, drought and wildfire in grain and forest regions
- Driver
- record-warm years and seasonal extremes
- Exposure
- grain land, forest, cities downwind of smoke
- Vulnerability
- sink loss and crop loss in the same season
- Capacity
- forest fire monitoring; not reviewed in depth
- Cascade
- CLI → FOO, BIO, HLT, ENE
- Horizon
- annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-RUS-WAT-002
Spring flood and dam failure on regulated rivers
- Driver
- snowmelt and rain on frozen ground
- Exposure
- river towns below dams
- Vulnerability
- design levels below event levels, as at Orsk
- Capacity
- federal emergency regime; evacuation
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- annual
InferredEQL 2RSK-RUS-INF-003
Permafrost thaw under northern infrastructure
- Driver
- ground warming and Arctic amplification
- Exposure
- northern industry, pipelines, housing
- Vulnerability
- foundation design; monitoring coverage
- Capacity
- operator monitoring systems reported in the NDC
- Cascade
- CLI → INF → ENE, BIO
- Horizon
- 5 to 30 years
InferredEQL 2RSK-RUS-ENE-004
Cold extremes and export dependence of the energy system
- Driver
- temperature extremes; external demand and logistics
- Exposure
- power, heat supply, fossil exports
- Vulnerability
- gas-heavy supply; northern heat supply
- Capacity
- large installed base of 271 GW8
- Cascade
- TRD → ENE → FIN
- Horizon
- 1 to 5 years
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | NOT BOUND | source: sector registers and inspection records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close | |
| Monitoring and observation | EXISTS | national hydrometeorological service publishes an annual climate report5 | |
| Early warning | NOT BOUND | source: Roshydromet and civil-protection operating records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close | |
| Preparedness and planning | NOT BOUND | source: civil-protection plans and drill records · blocker: not published in bound form | |
| Redundancy and reserves | NOT BOUND | source: fuel, grain and water reserve registers · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Response | EXISTS | federal emergency regime declared for the Orenburg flood in 202426; performance not assessed | |
| Continuity of critical services | NOT BOUND | source: utility restoration records · blocker: not published in bound form | |
| Recovery | NOT BOUND | source: recovery programme reports for the Orenburg Region · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Adaptation | LISTED | National Action Plan for adaptation, March 202343; Climate Doctrine, 202340; use in practice not reviewed | |
| Social protection | NOT BOUND | source: national social statistics · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Finance and insurance | LISTED | sustainable-finance bond issuance is reported in the NDC1; disaster insurance take-up not bound | |
| Institutional coordination | LISTED | Federal Law 296-FZ on limiting emissions, 202141; coordination evidence not reviewed | |
| Technical infrastructure | EXISTS | installed power capacity of 271 GW at 1 January 20268; condition of assets not bound | |
| Workforce | NOT BOUND | source: sector workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Research capacity | EXISTS | peer-reviewed forest carbon and permafrost literature includes national data and authors3031 | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
- 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
- 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
- 43Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), National Action Plan for the first stage of adaptation to climate change up to 2025, Order No. 559-r of 11 March 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
- 40President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 812 of 26 October 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
- 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
- 41Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 296-FZ of 2 July 2021 on Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Moscow, 2021.back
- 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
- 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back