Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region affect harvest, wildfire smoke, power demand and health services together?

    INI-RUS-CLI-01 · heat, drought and smoke; first output: dependency graph for two federal districts.

  2. A-02

    How resilient are gas, oil and power export and supply chains to cold extremes and to external demand shifts?

    INI-RUS-ENE-02 · energy supply and export resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are grain output and exports to weather, inputs and logistics at the same time?

    INI-RUS-FOO-03 · grain exposure; first output: input and logistics dependence table.

  4. A-04

    What can be said about heat, ageing and health when national series are not released?

    INI-RUS-HLT-04 · health under data limits; first output: bound-and-unbound indicator register.

  5. A-05

    How do spring floods and dam condition interact on regulated rivers?

    INI-RUS-WAT-05 · flood and dam safety; first output: basin performance note.

  6. A-06

    Where does permafrost thaw reach infrastructure, and what would it cost to monitor?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: exposure scoping note.

  7. A-07

    How large and how uncertain is the forest sink in the national inventory?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: sink uncertainty note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-RUS-CLI-01Heat, drought and smoke compound pathwayInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-RUS-ENE-02Energy supply and export resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-RUS-FOO-03Grain output and export exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-RUS-HLT-04Health reading under data limitsInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-RUS-WAT-05Flood and dam safety on regulated riversInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-RUS-CLI-01aTwo-district heat and smoke dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-RUS-2027-01Heat, drought and smoke Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Russian Federation is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the Russian Federation from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-RUS-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-RUS-2027-01 · Heat, drought and smoke Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · targetspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-003 · warm yearINI-RUS-CLI-01heat and smoke graphPUBLIC
BIO-004 · forest sinkuncertainty notesink uncertaintyPUBLIC
ENE-002 · power mixINI-RUS-ENE-02supply and export resiliencePUBLIC
FOO-006 · harvestINI-RUS-FOO-03grain exposurePUBLIC
HLT-008 · heat deathsINI-RUS-HLT-04data-limit registerPUBLIC
WAT-009 · OrskINI-RUS-WAT-05 · key F reviewflood and dam safetyPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-RUS-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather and climate monitoringRoshydrometcontinuousCLI findings
Forest fire monitoringFederal Forestry AgencyseasonalCLI-001 · BIO-004
Unified power system operating dataSystem OperatorperiodicENE-002
Grain harvest and production releasesRosstatperiodicFOO-006
Inventory submissionsUNFCCCannualCLI-001
Earthquake informationUSGSreal timeSEI-005
Indicator seriesWorld Bankannualprofile and table

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-RUS-001Rosstat withdrew monthly births and deaths in 202524CORROBORATEDHLT · DATrisk object and agenda item A-04
SIG-RUS-002A dam failed below the event level at Orsk in April 202426CORROBORATEDWAT · INFrisk object RSK-RUS-WAT-002
SIG-RUS-003Arctic winter and autumn were the warmest since 1951 in 20256CORROBORATEDCLI · INFresearch question A-06

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
  2. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
  3. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Russian Federation Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the Russian Federation’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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