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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Russia holds abundant renewable freshwater per person and withdraws a small share of it, so water risk is regional and seasonal: spring floods, dam safety and service quality.

29,895m³

renewable internal freshwater per person, 202218

1.5%

of internal resources withdrawn, 202218

76.3%

safely managed drinking water, 202417

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Resourcevery large renewable internal freshwater per person18Reported
Serviceabout three quarters of people use safely managed drinking water17Reported
FloodOrsk dam failed in April 2024 below the event level26Reported
Dam conditionregister and storage not boundn/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → WAT spring melt and rain
  • WAT → INF dam and road failure
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • WAT → FOO irrigation

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • dam condition register by basin
  • reservoir storage series

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Natural gas supplies more than half of primary energy, thermal plants produce most electricity, and Russia is a large exporter of crude oil, gas and coal.

57.5%

thermal share of generation, 20258

53%

gas in primary energy, 20239

271GW

installed capacity, 1 January 20268

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixthermal 57.5%, nuclear 18.7%, hydropower 16.7%8Reported
Primary energygas 53%, oil 23%, coal 16%, nuclear 7% in 20239Reported
Exportscrude oil about 11% of world exports in 2023911Reported
StrategyEnergy Strategy to 2050 took effect in April 202510Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE export demand
  • ENE → FIN public revenue
  • CLI → ENE cold and heat extremes
  • INF → ENE permafrost and asset condition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • pipeline and refinery resilience
  • heat supply to northern settlements

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Russia grows a large grain crop, and the 2025 harvest rose on 2024. Measured undernourishment is at the reporting floor. Risk lies in weather, inputs and export logistics.

141.2Mt

grain harvest, 202522

91.1Mt

wheat, 202522

95%

grain self-sufficiency threshold in the Doctrine39

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Harvest141.2 Mt of grain, 91.1 Mt of wheat22Reported
Growthpreliminary threshing up 10.7% on 202421Reported
Nutritionundernourishment at or below 2.5%19Reported
Inputsfertiliser and feed dependence not boundn/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → FOO heat and drought
  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • TRD → FOO export markets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fertiliser and input dependence
  • export volumes for 2025/26

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy was 73.4 years in 2024 and 17.8% of residents are 65 or over. Monthly births and deaths and several regional series were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025, so health risk cannot be read at the resolution used in other editions.

73.4years

life expectancy at birth, 202414

17.8%

aged 65 or over, 202513

2025releases

monthly births and deaths withdrawn24

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Ageing17.8% aged 65 or over13Reported
Life expectancy73.4 years in 202414Reported
Data releasemonthly births, deaths and regional series withdrawn24Reported
Heat deathscause-of-death series not availablen/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat and smoke
  • WAT → HLT drinking water and floods
  • ENE → HLT cooling and heating

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat-attributable mortality
  • cause-of-death series

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covers just over half of the land area. Protected areas are 8.6% of territory on the series used here, and fire and thaw are the main pressures.

50.8%

forest share of land, 202415

8.6%

protected, terrestrial and marine, 202516

30%

global target by 203045

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Forestforest on 50.8% of land; forest fund land above 1.1 billion ha in the NDC115Reported
Protection8.6% of territory in protected areas16Reported
Fire4.5 million ha burned January to August 2025, as reported27Reported
Conditionnot bound outside protected areas; the FAO forest assessment would fill forest condition47NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → BIO fire and thaw
  • BIO → CLI forest removals
  • BIO → WAT regulation of flows

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • condition outside protected areas
  • full-season wildfire area

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS) and renewable internal freshwater per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  2. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  3. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
  4. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
  5. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
  6. 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? IEA, Paris, 2022.back
  7. 10Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2050, Order No. 908-r of 12 April 2025. Moscow, 2025.back
  8. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
  9. 39President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 20 of 21 January 2020. Moscow, 2020.back
  10. 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025.back
  11. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  12. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  14. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
  15. 50World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
  16. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  17. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
  18. 45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
  19. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
  20. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back
  21. 47Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Russian Federation Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the Russian Federation’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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