References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Health threats cross every line
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5High-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing and thin surveillance
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.148 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1WHO (ed.), WHO Member States agree to extend negotiations on key annex to the Pandemic Agreement, news release of 28 March 2026 (sixth Intergovernmental Working Group meeting, 23 to 28 March 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
- 2WHO (ed.), WHO Member States agree to extend negotiations on the Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing annex, news release of 1 May 2026 (resumed sixth meeting 27 April to 1 May 2026; seventh meeting 6 to 17 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
- 3WHO (ed.), Seventy-ninth World Health Assembly daily update, 19 May 2026 (decision to continue the annex negotiations; outcome to the Eightieth Assembly in May 2027 or a special session in 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
- 4WHO (ed.), Amended International Health Regulations enter into force, news release of 19 September 2025 (11 of 196 States Parties rejected; pandemic emergency level; National IHR Authorities). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 5WHO (ed.), Fifth meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the upsurge of mpox 2024, statement published 30 October 2025 (Director-General determination of 5 September 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 6WHO (ed.), WHO warns of widespread resistance to common antibiotics worldwide, news release of 13 October 2025 on the Global antibiotic resistance surveillance report 2025 (data year 2023; 104 reporting countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 7WHO (ed.), Antimicrobial resistance, fact sheet (more than 4.7 million deaths associated with bacterial resistance in 2021; 10% reduction target by 2030). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 8WHO (ed.), Immunisation coverage, fact sheet (WUENIC estimates for 2025, released 15 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 9WHO (ed.), Measles, fact sheet (95,000 deaths in 2024; coverage in 2025; page dated 15 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
- 10WHO (ed.), Cholera, fact sheet (451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported from 47 countries in 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
- 11WHO (ed.), Dengue and severe dengue, fact sheet of 21 August 2025 (more than 14.6 million cases in 2024). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
- 12WHO (ed.), Tuberculosis, fact sheet (10.7 million people fell ill and 1.23 million died in 2024; funding figures). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 13WHO (ed.), One Health, fact sheet (Quadripartite; over 60% of emerging infectious diseases reported globally come from animals). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 14WHO (ed.), Zoonoses, fact sheet (over 200 known types of zoonoses; no percentages given on the page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
- 15WHO, FAO, UNEP and WOAH (eds.), One Health Joint Plan of Action launched to address health threats to humans, animals, plants and environment, news release of 17 October 2022 (plan period 2022 to 2026; six action tracks). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 16Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (ed.), A World on the Edge: Priorities for a Pandemic-Resilient Future, 2026 report (reports page read; six emergencies of international concern in the past decade). GPMB, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
- 17POST-CLOSE, context only: Post-close, context only: CDC (ed.), A(H5) Bird Flu: Current Situation (72 human cases since February 2024; page updated 15 October 2026). US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 18WHO (ed.), Influenza (avian and other zoonotic), fact sheet of 21 January 2026 (hundreds of human cases; no cumulative count on the page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
- 19WHO (ed.), Marburg virus disease, fact sheet (case fatality 24% to 88% in past outbreaks; Rwanda 2024: 66 cases and 15 deaths; fruit bat host). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1
- 20WHO (ed.), 14.9 million excess deaths were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, news release of 5 May 2022 (range 13.3 to 16.6 million). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 21US Department of Health and Human Services (ed.), HHS Fact Sheet: U.S. Withdrawal from the World Health Organization (Executive Order 14155 of 20 January 2025; effective 22 January 2026), hosted on the CDC site. HHS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
- 22IHME (ed.), Financing Global Health 2025, news release of 15 July 2025 (development assistance for health USD 39 billion in 2025; USD 80 billion peak in 2021; US financing down 67%), read through a syndicated release. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 23STAT (ed.), Congo’s last Ebola patient is discharged, article of 20 October 2025 (Kasai province outbreak declared 4 September 2025; 64 cases, 43 deaths; 42-day countdown). STAT, Boston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
- 24WHO (ed.), WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on Ebola outbreak in DRC and Uganda, 20 May 2026 (Bundibugyo virus; not a pandemic emergency; Contingency Fund for Emergencies). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 25POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News 2026-DON607, 13 June 2026 (695 confirmed cases; risk assessment; continental response plan June to November 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
- 26WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News 2026-DON612, 3 July 2026 (1,481 confirmed cases and 454 deaths; one imported case in France). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 27ESCMID (ed.), Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, day-100 update of 28 August 2026 (end of the Uganda outbreak confirmed 27 August 2026). European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 28POST-CLOSE, context only: ECDC (ed.), Ebola (Bundibugyo virus disease) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, update of 5 October 2026 (cases up to 2 October 2026: 8,442 confirmed and 4,080 deaths; seven provinces; vaccine candidates). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 29WHO (ed.), Poliomyelitis, fact sheet (endemic transmission in areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan; Emergency Committee statements). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050, The Lancet, 2024 (1.14 million attributable and 4.71 million associated deaths in 2021), taken from search-result summaries; the article returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: The Pandemic Fund (ed.), funding rounds and projects (US$499.6 million to 20 projects in the third round, February 2026; US$1.4 billion across three rounds), taken from search-result summaries; the site returned an access error. World Bank and WHO, Washington and Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Biological Weapons Convention Working Group on the strengthening of the Convention, seventh session, Geneva, 8 to 12 December 2025, and draft final report of 1 October 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: King’s College London and George Mason University, Global BioLabs Report 2023 (51 operating level-4 laboratories in 27 countries and 18 planned or under construction), taken from search-result summaries; the document text was not readable. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1, adopted by the Seventy-eighth World Health Assembly on 20 May 2025, cited from memory and from search summaries; the date was not read on a WHO page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction, 1972, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO, International Health Regulations (2005), third edition, cited from memory. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UK Health Security Agency, Outbreaks under monitoring, week 41, week ending 11 October 2026 (9,066 confirmed cases and 4,381 deaths in the DRC), taken from a search-result summary. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Africa CDC, declaration of a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security for the Bundibugyo outbreak, May 2026, taken from search-result summaries. Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jones, K.E. et al., Global trends in emerging infectious diseases, Nature 451, 990 to 993, 2008, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Carlson, C.J. et al., Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk, Nature 607, 555 to 562, 2022, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO, Laboratory biosafety manual, fourth edition. World Health Organization, Geneva, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 35001:2019, Biorisk management for laboratories and other related organisations. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Political declaration of the high-level meeting on antimicrobial resistance, 2024, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: WOAH (ed.), Terrestrial Animal Health Code, cited from memory. World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: IHME and Lancet authors, Tracking development assistance for health, 1990 to 2030, The Lancet, 2025, published with Financing Global Health 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 47ECDC (ed.), Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, update of 30 September 2026 (cases up to 27 September 2026: 8,116 confirmed and 3,924 deaths; seven provinces; 63 of 167 health zones; Uganda 20 confirmed cases). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 48FAO, WHO and WOAH (eds.), Updated joint FAO/WHO/WOAH public health assessment of recent high pathogenicity avian influenza A(H5) virus events in animals and people, 18 May 2026 (since 2024 and as of 1 March 2026, 1,088 dairy herds in 19 US states affected; human detections reported in Bangladesh, Mexico and the United States). Food and Agriculture Organization, World Health Organization and World Organisation for Animal Health, Rome, Geneva and Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity, Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-08
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 health security edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR-08 | NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-STR-SR-08-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- SR-08 edition Reports Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-08 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |